BTC - Double TroubleI believe the technical bottom has formed similar to the technical top formed in APR 2021. Many of the same indicators used to determine this top are also suggesting that a bottom has formed. However, I feel that the actual bottom may be some what lower around 14k. The 400WMA might be a key level of support to bounce off when forming the true bottom over the next couple of months. I think it would act as an excellent buying opportunity and entry into crypto market.
Bottom
Cardano Potential Triple Bottom Pattern at $0.40Cardano's (ADA) daily chart highlights the prospects of a potential triple bottom pattern at the $0.40 psychological number. Additionally, a confluence of technical factors supports the bullish case scenario, including the RSI hidden divergence and the 3-months descending triangle.
ADA Triple Bottom
The daily technical picture reveals that ADA has carved out a double bottom at the $0.40 level and is now eyeing a third to complete a triple bottom bullish reversal pattern. Usually, there is symmetry between the 3 consecutive valleys, which means that we can expect the next bottom to materialize 62 days after the second bottom.
This implies that the final bottom can emerge on September 13. While we can't develop an exact date for the bottom, this is a rough approximation.
Descending Triangle
At the same time, ADA is trading inside a descending triangle as each successive bounce from the $0.40 becomes smaller and smaller. As the price compresses inside the descending channel, we can expect the price ranges to shrink as well.
This ultimately will lead to a breakout as prices move from small price ranges to large price ranges.
RSI Hidden Divergence
The hidden bullish divergence develops when the price makes a higher low, while at the same time the RSI oscillator makes a lower low. This is often perceived as a bullish signal.
When we have multiple confluence technical factors lining up, the bullish case scenario becomes much more relevant, and there is a higher chance that the price will work in favor of these signals.
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 22.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 22.08 - #IDEA 🤖
Snapshot:
I honestly feel we are now in the last phase of this bear movement, with "Fixed HODL'd BTC" increasing again I don't think there are much big pots left or wanting to be sold.
General outlook we will descend and consolidate slowly down from retail traders completely giving up hope now and smart money is in 100% bull mode looking to buy at any opportunity below $20k. This is starting to sync nicely with the DXY coming to a natural point of rejection (That itself narrowly dodged an incredibly bearish breakdown. I believe we are looking at about $18.5k as the possible floor now.
BTC 4 Year Cycle - UpdateThis is my projection for the next few and final months of the BTC cycle.
If the consistent and precise cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle remains in tact, November will be the bottom of this cycle, but the details of how we arrive there, if indeed we do, are highly speculative. I'm just throwing this out there for bragging rights in case I'm right.
In any case, regardless of how it this actually plays out, my long strategy will start in November and last until the next cycle top in Oct 2025: dollar cost average, accumulate, leverage the lows, de-risk the highs.
I linked to my original idea regarding the cadence of the 4 year cycle below.
BTC Is an at all time low for RSICurrent RSI level has historically been the bottom before major runs.
MACD is crossing and indicates a battle is going to commence, possibility of more down however based on the OBV level and RSI level, any drop is a lower entry and a good place to average down.
Hold onto your hats as BTC ascends to and past 100k, aiming at 200k.
BTC is at a stage in life now where it is in the public eye and part of public discussion, crypto is shown nonchalantly on news and other public media with some cryptocurrencies sponsoring huge names (such as TEZOS for Manchester United).
Adoption is beginning now, Bitcoin has finished it's early adoption phase.
BITCOIN "PERFECT" TOP AND BOTTOM TECHNIQUEFirst things first, nothing is perfect. Expecially in crypto.
However, the analysis I provide you seems pretty close ;). Besides, what harm does a little clickbait do.
What do we see on the chart:
Haikin-Ashi candles: Heikin Ashi reduces graph noise, making it easier to spot trends.
Indicators:
RSI Index (14):
- Parallel channel within the RSI Index: we can observe a trend since 2012. RSI hit both the upper and the lower side of the channel 3 times.
- In this trend we constantly see the RSI moving along a trendline.
Important NOTE : we take the last hit along the trendline when the RSI has touched the upper or the bottom side.
For example: Jan 2019 we started moving upwards along a trendline. April 2021 we hit the upper side but we never went through the imaginary trendline which could be drawn.
In stead, we bounced back up which led to a minor change in the trendline. (slide angle upwards)
In a bullish trend : when the upper side of the channel is hit, and the rsi breaks through the trendline, thats the place where we put a red circle and put a red vertical line.
In a bearish trend: when the lower side of the channel is hit, and the rsi breaks through the trendline, thats the place where we put a green circle and put a green vertical line.
How accurate are we by using this technique?
Bullish trends:
Feb 2014 - 2 months away from high
Jan 2018 - 1 month away from high
Dec 2021 - 1 month away from high
Bearish trends:
Jan 2015 - Perfect
Jan 2019 - 1 month away from low
Aug 2022 - 2 months away from low (yet to be seen)
Conclusion:
Based on this technique the biggest deviation from the highs and the lows is (until now) only 2 months which suggests the bottom is in .
Bonus (what is to come?):
Based on this technique, we can see the first bullrun lasted 37 months and the second bullrun lasted 35 months. Assuming that the bottom is in since this month, the next top will be around August 2025 (BUT: let's follow the trendlines ;) )
BRIEFING Week #33 : ETH/BTC ratio at important level !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
BTC - Finding the BottomSo i have made out my chart, ive kept it simple and done simple time analysis as well
im expecting that by the end of the year (somewhere between october and mid jan) we should see btc somewhere around 8.2k
Personally, u should start ladder buying from 12k onwards
The green box represents the buying zone for btc
P.S. This will take time to play out since this is on the weekly timeframe
Bitcoin long-term view - bottom time decreasing ??!!Bitcoin long-term view - bottom time decreasing ??!!
Of course only few BTC data points - but comparing the bottom phase 2015 and 2019 we can see a reduced length (10 month >> 4 month)
Will the current bottom phase (if we are in it) be again reduced ?!
Explanation:
red - candle of PI cycle bottom
yellow - candle breaking out on RSI
green - candle breaking out sideways action (start bull run)
What are your thoughts dear Crypto Nation?
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
BUY THE GAPBTC TO $9735
CME GAP TO FILL FROM JULY 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2020
Will it be a quick wick or will we need to range here?
Lot of GAP news lately....
No leader
Kayne got the GAP on his perfectly black hoodie covered shoulders for now.
New Leader incoming.
The GAP will be back in September...
www.cnn.com
www.complex.com
Gold w/ a full retraceTVC:GOLD has completed a full retrace back to historical support around the 1670-1680 zone. This area has help support multiple times in the past making it rather significant.
With this full retrace came a fantastic buying opportunity (especially for stackers) that I personally took advantage of. I do not trade paper metals but simply use the charts to time great stacking opportunities for the long term.
Silver had built a long term consolidation zone with similar support structure in place before breaking down lower. Check the image below for similarities. :) If the 1670 level is lost on a higher time frame, Gold could slide lower but not all hope is to be lost or Bearish, we do have good news!
Price action has looked to formed a bottoming tail on the 3 day with some momentum building in the indicators. Check the Stochastic RSI and watch for the cross to stay true and close above the 20 level while the MACD Historgram has flipped colors and looking for its bullish cross as well. Since Gold is such a massive market its always good to use the lower time frames to time entries and get a early warning of what could happen on the higher time frames. Such as - 1 Day flips bullish before the 3D which flips bullish for the 1 week and so forth.
Buttttt, there is a catch. Theres always a catch. price could get hammered back down for a retest or collapse of this support area after the next Fed announcement which I believe is the 27th of July.
Bitcoin Big Short x10We're trying to find bottom before the bulltrend to the moon.
Looks by one of the forecasts, it can reach x10 shorts, from 40k for example.
I copied similar fractal from the 19th and 20th years and applied it to current days.
Based on pre-drawn lines, three possible options were formed. They are depicted in numbers and the corresponding color.
KDAUSDT is creating a rounded bottomThe price created a rounded bottom on the daily timeframe and now the market is testing the daily resistance on 2.1-2.2$ area
How to approach it?
the price needs to create a clear breakout from the resistance area and retest it as new support, so According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order
–––––
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
BTCUSD floor at $15,000I arrived to a conclusion of 13k BTC based on interest rate changes back at the top - didn't short BTC because I didn't believe it was possible. Well here we are at a low of 17.5k so egg on my face. Here I show the 3x 4year cycles which are very well mapped on the MFI. Red, green, yellow (current).
Based on this the yellow cycle still has yet to put its foot on the top of the previous green cycle. See the orange circles on the MFI. This means that BTCUSD MFI on the monthly needs to hit that prior top-solid-green bar to have reached a bottom based on the cycles. It will hit soon enough because the next cycle begins at the top-yellow-solid bar which is about 2024.
Now get this - those bars are all PARALLEL. Perfectly. I simply drew the first one (from the first high MFI in 2012 to the next high MFI 2012) and that line, perfectly copies to EVERY NEXT HIGH and low (top and bottom of the MFI trend).
How quirky is that? HUH? Think about it.
$15k BTCUSD that's my call. I'm already starting to leverage into this bottom.
EDIT - The latest downtrend is also in a bear flattener (Bond terminology). Only the last month has been a slight bull steepener (not a lot of runway as long as short-end rates stay higher or rising).
EDIT - the $15K comes from the Fibonacci sequence. BTCUSD has previously dipped under that .786 level every time before. So chances are it should do it at least once more. Maybe after some terrible inflation prints? Who knows.
Again I'm already building a long position through RIOT (my preferred miner). I'm not a Crytpo purist.
Bitcoin Weekly Indicators Hinting At A Bottom?
I'm thinking we see a retest of the previous support region around 29-30k before BTC attempts any further downward attempts
The weekly RSI here showing we are at a similar level to the 2018-19 bottom, Could we see an unexpected bullish swing upwards? Fisher indicator also showing signs of a reversal (crossing up)
Interesting point for BTC to be, time will tell.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
INDEX:BTCUSD
MASSIVE BOTTOM in the SP500?I was not looking for a bottom in the SP500, but for Relative Strength in Gold with the relative Strength line from Trader Lion´s Indicator, on the weekly timeframe.
Yet I noticed that the last peak in Relative Strength in Gold was on march 16th 2020. This made me curious so I went back and looked at all RS Peaks from 2008 till now, and they all coincided with bottoms in the SP500 to the very day.
Some of those bottoms were absolutely massive buying opportunities: 2/3/09, 6/28/10, 2/1/16, 3/16/20, I also counted the peak on 12/17/18, despite a missing peak signal.
Two Peak Signals were wrong or early, for example we had a signal on 3/9/20 (7 days before the real signal and real bottom), and one signal on June 6th 2022, so 7 days before the signal we got right now, on 6/13/22.
I also want to point out, that on every other occation, we didnt have massive inflation and a tightening into worsening economic conditions.
So I wanted to see more confirmation, for that purpose I´ve used the McClellan Summation Index, and the McClellan Oscillator.
The MO shows a nice bullish divergence, and the MSI shows an abysmall market breadth, often coinciding with bottoms in the market.
Do with this information, whatever your confirmation bias makes you want to do, but stay safe and manage risk!
This is not financial advice and I am more often wrong than right.
Pesonally, I will buy some Calls and reduce my short positions.
Ethereum Might Have Bottomed; Elliott Wave AnalysisHello Crypto traders, today we will talk about Ethereum, its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott wave perspective.
Crypto market is actually still at the lows, but Ethereum is one of the strongest cryptocurrencies for the last couple of weeks. It can be actually already turning bullish after it reached projected strong support zone with equal wavelength A=C. So, we believe it's quiet leading indicator, which suggests that Crypto market may have found the bottom.
From Elliott wave perspective ETHUSD made nice and clean A-B-C corrective decline from all-time highs, called Elliott wave zig-zag correction. But, to confirm low in place and bulls back in the game, we need to see a five-wave recovery back above 2150 level.
From technical point of view ETHUSD found the support exactly at the support line of a corrective channel, however, bulls can be considered only if we get bigger rally back above channel resistance line.
All that being said, we think that Ethereum may have a completed correction from the all-time highs and we expect more upside while the price is above 880 lows, just be aware of short-term pullbacks.
All the best!
If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies.
Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
BTCUSD Potential Bottom, Longterm Monthly Outlook & DCA StratJudging by the Volume, I am quite confident a potential bottom might be in.
Unfortunately, i do expect a painfully boring and long consolidation phase after this.
During these months / years, i will try to DCA as much as possible.
good luck!