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Identifying significant bottoms in Bitcoin Bear CyclesHey all! I've been looking at long term charts for quite a while, trying to find some pattern to help me identify and find the dreaded "price bottom" everyone longs for. Here's a model/pattern I've found out in the chart, which eerily seems to be accurate across past cycles, and we just yet might be finishing it off as well this time. There are several predicates I have to put before the analysis: This is NOT financial advice and should be used for entertainment purpose only! I'm using two-week candles to have as little noise as possible while having more data points than when using Monthly candles. RSI - Major level for RSI is 50; when RSI is above 50, I consider we are in bull-market and going up. Basically every time we went above 50 and held it as support, we never looked below 50 before reaching the cycle price top. - Another major indicator is the Moving Average on RSI. As per usual, if MA is going up, the price goes up and until the direction switches, prices will go up. Breaking the MA as support and holding it as resistance starts the new bear market and prices dropping. - Since this analysis focuses on the "bottom", I'm going to talk mainly about what happens after RSI breaks the MA and it reaches level 50 from above. StochRSI - as per definition, major levels are level 20 and 80. - All major price points I'll talk about happen below level 20. PMAR & PMARP - I'm using PMARP - major level is between ~25-30; We tend to touch or go below this level in bear markets - The Moving Average (SMA) is very important and I'll be using it in my analysis as well. As you can see, there are 9 orange vertical lines, I call them simply "#point 1-9". These are actually describing the "same" event in different times across the Bitcoin history. I will completely omit any price charting, the price is only pinpointing my analysis, however be sure to notice, the orange #points are showing INDICATOR significant levels, NOT price levels (even though they go hand-in-hand). The story must be explained on each of the three indicators, for each of the three-points I'm using. So let's start! #point 1, 4, 7 RSI - RSI went below MA (yellow line), and reached the ~50 level for the first time since quite a while. - On this occasion, the level 50 holds as SUPPORT StochRSI - First visit of <20 lows since hitting highs of >80 - Usually goes even below 5, or as low as 0 on this occasion. PMARP - First time reaching level ~26-30 since breaking the MA (white line) On this occasion, we are hitting first major lows on all indicators (and price of course as well). However, every time, there is a small bounce, but this bounce is short-lasting, invevitably heading for next points. #point 2, 5, 8 RSI - First time RSI does not hold 50 as support and breaks below this level. It will likely retest this level as resistance but fail to hold it as support for any prolong period of time. StochRSI - Another point being <20, most likely hitting <5 again. PMARP - Hitting level ~26-30 again or going first time BELOW it. After our first set, we had a brief rally, only to get crushed even more below our support levels on all three indicators. Price can be the same or lower than on previous point, but we know there is #point 3/6/9 coming up, as this is not the bottom just yet... #point 3, 6, 9 RSI - Hits absolute bottom, it will NOT go below this level until the next bear market. StochRSI - Again (or still) hitting levels <20, most likely <5 even. Looks like any momentum is completely dead. PMARP - Hitting new lower-low, this value will not be visited again before reaching next bear market. - #point 9 is an outlier - other points were rejected from MA after previous point AND before reaching this low, not the case for #point 9; However, what we DID have, was a rejection from MA on PMARP before #point 8 printed, which could count as well. This last point in each cycle is very special, as there are many similarities and some differences between each points. The most important aspect is, that at these points, the indicators were at their absolute bottoms, and very similar story followed for #points 3/6, we are yet to see if they will happen for #point 9 as well. So what happens next? RSI - In my eyes, the bull-market is over whenever RSI goes below 50. And on the contrary, the bear market is over when RSI goes above 50 and decisively holds it as support. - When last point prints, the RSI must retake firstly the MA (which tends to be lower than 50), and next it must go above 50. Once it does, the bull market is officially on. - You can notice interesting "similar" timeframes for following: - Going below MA (yellow line), and going above 50 level took 45 bars (Jan 2014 - Oct 2015), and 35 bars (Dec 2017 - Apr 2019). If we take 45 bars on our current cycle, we are looking at Mar 2021 - Dec 2022 if you take first break of MA (the same as previous points) - After going above level 50 (and holding it as support), it took 57 bars before we decisively broke the MA in 2017/18 bull-market, and 51 bars in 2019-2021 bull market. Since we are not above level 50 right now, it's hard to say when the next RSI break might be, but if we use our previous estimate of 45 bars from MA break to 50 level break, and use "average" of 51 and 57 bars, we are pointing for RSI breaking the MA from above again in Jan 2025; but this is pure speculation right now. StochRSI - Important level when coming from <20 is of course the level 20, and 40 as well. Once both levels are held as support (and possibly retested more times), the bull market might just be allowed to start, - For #point 3/6, the first time we "touched" level 20 on StochRSI after these points printed, we never went below level 20 again until the next bear market. - NOTE: Reaching 80 the first time does NOT have to mean the bull market is starting - this has to be connected with the RSI being above 50 as well - then you can be "sure" it won't go down again until next bear market. PMARP - Similarly to RSI, PMARP has two objectives - retake MA (white line), hold it as support and then go above level ~26-30 and hold that as support. - There are also similar timeframes for notable objectives done by PMARP: - Breaking the MA (white line) from ABOVE, to break it again from BELOW took 28 and 29 bars. If it were to take 29 bars this time "again", it points to Dec 2022 (same as RSI using 45 bars, see above) - the last point is a bit of an outlier, since PMARP went above it's MA briefly during Oct 2021, so I consider the "last" break from ABOVE in this timeframe. - Time between #point 3 and 6, when PMARP last touched the MA, to next time it did the same after given point was reached, took 100 bars. If we use this same timeframe, we are looking to break the MA on PMARP from BELOW in Dec 2022 (again the same date!) To summarize: - All things considered, I think we've already found our "three bottoms" as we did have in previous bear markets as well. This does NOT mean price cannot go lower (cascading liquidations for example), but I'd argue that the INDICATOR bottoms are IN! - Using similar timeframes, it might seem we could break the indicator major resistance around Dec 2022. This does not mean the price will be higher then than it is now! - Again, I'm not saying price bottom has been reached. - Critique and comments are welcome. I'm newb TA-junkie, this is not professional work and it's the first Idea I've written. - This is not financial advice, DYOR.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by donach
Another leg down? Previous Bear Markets had an average of 85% correction. Breaking down 10 year support. So far, from the top peak of the most recent bull market, we are currently only down 70% indicating we have more downside If the next leg down is the bottom (50%), it should be in accumulation phase for a little while. SLOW STOCHASTIC 1. Indicator shows us that we're not too far away from the bottom. 2. Indicator shows we are in an OVER-SOLD area which implies that were in safe zone to start to DCA 3. We're in line for a bullish divergence 4. Two lines crossing could indicate the bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bilguunb
6
BITCOIN ANALYSIS - BEARMARKET BOTTOMHey Traders, Im Astro and today i show you my Bitcoin Monthly Analysis. Where do i think is the bottom? - Best case: 14000$ - 11000$ - Worst case: 7000$ - 4000$ Where will i buy? - I will buy a lot of Cryptos when Bitcoin is in the 14000$ - 11000$ area. Will i trade this with leverage? - Yes i will also open some 2x-5x Longs on BTC and ETH at that area and dca them and hold them for the bullrun 2023/2024. I hope you like this idea and if you got any questions feel free to ask. I will come back here and give updates.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MM_TRADEZ
3
SPX + VIX Major Market Bottom Set Up: If not here, where?Confirmation of Major Market Bottom: Clean Bottom in June plus a retest today that corresponds with extremely oversold conditions by most metrics, Tech @ Long-Term Support & Rates and USD extremely overbought- June Bottom- Volume Spike @ low of positive px action on the SPX, with the VIX vol Spike on Negative Px action- Both confirmed with follow thru px action following weeks. Retest: Long way to go today but a close on SPX Greater than 50%(~3650.50 atm) of todays range combined with a close Less than 50% of todays range on the VIX(~32.80 atm), creates a strong probability of a bounce which could turn into a major market bottom Odds get better if we get a volume spike as well today. Conclusion: Great spot to get Long risk assets for investors of with a time Horizon longer than 1 day.
SP:SPXLong
by ronnymayday
2
Breath gave the signal for correctionThe percentage of stocks of the SP:SPX got above 80% last week. For the last 4 years, this has been a very good signal for excess and a correction is due. Use this to find strength. The stocks that manage to stay above its 50-day MA may be the ones that lead the next move. At the moment oil, gas and some solar stocks dominate my watchlist. And I am a Bottom-Up trader. Also, according to this breath indicator, the bottom already happened. Just like in 2020, INDEX:S5FI got below 2%. As it shows, it signaled the bottom.
INDEX:S5FI
by dpuleo19
Have I changed my mind about BTC bottom was in? No No & again NoI'm looking at daily and weekly timeframes. As you noticed I expect double bottom /W pattern/ play out on daily timeframe with the target 28-32K. BTW it is my target for October and November. As you see every time when the bellow indicator flashes green histogram it marks bottom area with strong accumulation phase. On weekly I expect the mentioned triangle to be broken upside. So don't miss your last chance to buy at this super low prices to become rich. I know 99% in crypto expect lower prices 14K>12K>10K even 8K. All media speaks about Stock market dump and big recession is coming. But I don't pay attention to any kind of shit, garbage, news, toilet paper and macroeconomic news. Of course a big recession will come, I even see early part of it but it is the bottom signal for Stock market and BTC , I expect BTC and Stock market to make new ATH before Q2 2023 then enter to a huge bear market and dump significantly when full recession starts. I hope you remember when I told you BTC bottomed at 17.5 K on 18.06.2022 and posted more than 12 strong charts that proves it bottomed I even published my first analysis on 18.06.2022 with the title BTC bottomed today/ Check it bellow/.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
4
BTCThis is my take on the current situation. BTC is currently on the support of the last high, this would be a perfect retest and a possible double bottom for BTC. However, BTC is also forming a bearish triangle with a measured move going way below 10k. I believe the crypto marked is trying to bottom, The last few weeks the market has felt different, some ALT coins has been popping, and a lot of bullish idea can be found on different charts. We might see one move lower and experience a max pain scenario before reversing. At this point i believe there's a lot more upside potential than downside potential. This setup provides to options: Go short if the bears break through the red support line. Go long if bulls break the green resistance line.
by thekneekeeper
When I expect the crypto next bull market to beginBased on the all-time pattern on the monthly chart, when next bull market would begin is expected to be somewhere in autumn 2022 or winter 2023, approx. The red 'strong counter-momentum' diamonds on Momentum Master have always resulted in at least a %55 drop or more within several monthly candles, and that has already come true this time around as well. This was calculated based on the average bottom duration after those signals on the previous two cycle-bottoms and some margin of error.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by lysergik
We bottom around 9k in December 2022? Please see chart.A minor run to 21k then a dump to 13k probably, sideways, then another dump to 9k where we bottom out. I am not going to trade it to 21k, too risky. Well, this supports the four year cycle theory. People call for 2023 bearish and 5k target, but I believe that we will go sideways from 9k, for half a year, then have a new bull run, I don't know how high we might get - I suppose the 21-22k region will be met with harsh resistance, since it is the ATH of previous cycle + the entire three bull run support line. 2018 till 2019 we went from 3000 to 13000, which is around 4x roughly. A 2x isn't all that bad to be honest. I do think we will break it in 2024 but we will never truly see a new all time high. Because this bull run was supported by the intense money printing that was unprecedented.
Short
by Heartskull
Capitulation and a Bottom.The indexes are entering a period of traditional seasonal weakness. The headlines will be filled with bearish news and stories of pending economic doom. Pay no attention to the talking heads. IMO The bottom is in and the lows will hold. My favorite headlines are the ones talking about low volume, no capitulation, and the bottom hasn't happened yet. Well, the charts tell a different story. The first chart is a weekly chart of the S&P 500. The bear market sell off was 168 days long and dropped the index by 24%. The first clue that the bottom was in is where the index found support - right around the AVWAP off of the covid plunge. The next clue was the massive volume that took place on the final week of the sell off - everyone was running for the exits. The final clue was the formation of a hammer candle a few weeks later. Lots of market prognosticators are questioning this bottom and claiming that market participants have yet to capitulate. The chart disagrees. Over 50% of the bear market losses happened in the final 9 days of the route. The intra-day YTD low saw volume that was 78% higher then the preceding 52 period average and the highest volume since the fall of 2020. All of the weak hands folded right here. If this isn't capitulation then what is? After the seasonal weakness passes anything sub 4000 on the index will be a distant memory. The AVWAP off of the prior ATH will provide resistance. Once 4220 is cleared and becomes support its going to be off to the races. The media will be filled with skeptics. Around this time you will notice that bad news will no longer move markets. The pundits will pivot and the headlines will be talking about a bottom that is 6 months plus old.
SP:SPXLong
by Breakout_Charts
2