GBP/JPYBack Again Tell a Friend
Risk Management is EVERYTHING!
DON'T BE STUPID!
Looking for a 15m Bearish ChofCh
Once this change of Character completes
I will be looking for the retracement of the
move.
Once retracement is complete I shall
EXECUTE A SELL
Potential Gains 300 Pips
Potential Loss 26 Pips
London. Potentially New York
Bofa
BofA's Triumphant Return: Stock Surges to New Heights● Following a significant rejection around the 46.5 level, the stock price dropped nearly 50%.
● However, it found support near the 24.3 level and staged a comeback.
● After nearly three years, it has now broken through its previous major resistance and is currently trading at an all-time high.
● There are expectations that this upward momentum will continue, pushing the price even further.
BAC Bank of America Medium Term OptionsI think BAC Bank of America is one of the few beneficiaries of the small banks bank run that we are witnessing today.
Big banks are the safest places where you can place your money right now.
Looking at the BAC Bank of America options chain, i would buy the $30 strike price Calls with
2024-1-19 expiration date for about
$2.85 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
💰 A LITTLE MORE DOWN AND THE FED WILL BEGIN TO SAVE THE BANKS 📣 Hello everyone!
I believe that the entire growth up to 2006 is the first impulse wave of the cycle, which stretched for about 33 years. From 2006 to 2009, the ABC zigzag in the wave of the second cycle adjusted the entire growth by -95%, pushing the price of Bank of America shares back 25 years.
I am now considering with a hypothesis the completion of the correction of the wave-the second cycle in 2009, and all subsequent market activity is part of a complex segmented impulse wave iii of the cycle.
Accordingly, I believe that the decline in the shares of the second bank in the United States, which began in 2022, will continue in 2023, and moreover, the decline has already begun. But according to the hypothesis I am considering, I am more inclined to believe that the downward trend, that is, this ABC zigzag will end in the area of wave-4, which is part of wave 3 of the higher intermediate level. After that, it would be logical to expect a trend reversal and the beginning of growth in the impulse wave-5 of the intermediate level with a goal of $ 62 per share approximately in 2024/2025.
The cancellation of the scenario I am considering will be a breakdown and consolidation below the level of $ 19.86, that is, the completion of wave-4 below this level. 😱 If the price is fixed below this level, it is likely that the fall may continue up to $ 2 per share, so it is worth paying attention to this key level now. ⚡️
⚠️ As always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit ✊
Goodbye!
💾 Bank of America Corporation Worst Since 2008 | Major CrashNumber two is Bank of America, this one looks even worst than JP Morgan Chase.
No introduction needed as I already did it with JPM but if you missed the other article let me just say that we are likely entering a "Bank Holiday" period.
Bank Holiday refers to the process of the bankers celebrating as the wealth of 20-40% of the worlds population vanishes.
Ok, the chart:
✔️ Bank of America peaked February 2022 and last month produced a year long lower high.
✔️ This week BAC produced the highest selling volume since June 2020.
✔️ BAC closed Friday below MA200 and EMA300 in a single candle.
✔️ It was already trading below EMA50, EMA100, etc.
✔️ The MACD did a bearish cross while moving below zero... Double whammy.
✔️ The RSI is already weak and gaining bearish momentum.
While everything burns, the executives will pay themselves millions and millions and millions of dollars in bonuses... People will lose everything.
We will see if Crypto will save the day or if it will also go down together with the whale banks.
Or maybe they will decide to print 5 Trillion USD to bailout the banks out and everything...
Namaste.
Bank of America's profit faltered by 14% in 2022Another big bank that reported its earnings on the past Friday is Bank of America. The bank generated $27.5 billion in net profit and $95 billion in revenue for the full-year 2022. Its net income decreased by 14%, and revenue rose by 6.6%. The net interest income jumped by 22%, and the noninterest income dropped by 8%.
The Consumer Banking segment added over 1 million checking accounts and reached a record of 3.5 million consumer investment accounts. At the same time, it experienced net inflows from clients worth $28 billion and a jump in digital sales by 22% versus 2021. The Global Banking division experienced a 38% increase in revenue and saw a growth in average loans and leases of 14%.
BofA’s Global Wealth and Investment Management segment gained more than 119 000 accounts and saw $87 billion in client inflows for the entire year. More importantly, it is on a streak of 51 consecutive quarters of average loan and lease growth. The Global Markets division saw the highest revenue and sales since 2010. In addition to that, its average loans grew by 28% year over year.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of Bank of America stock, which declined more than 26% in 2022.
2022 (full-year) vs. 2021 (full-year)
Net income = $27.5 billion
(vs. $32 billion in 2021; -14% YoY)
Net interest income = $52.4 billion
(vs. $42.9 billion in 2021; +22% YoY)
Noninterest income = $42.5 billion
(vs. $46.2 billion in 2021; -8% YoY)
Revenue = $95 billion
(vs. $89.1 billion in 2021; +6.6% YoY)
Noninterest expenses = $61.4 billion
(vs. $59.7 billion in 2021; +2.8% YoY)
Provision for credit losses = $2.5 billion
(vs. $-4.6 billion in 2021)
4Q 2022 vs. 4Q 2021 (year over year)
Net income 4Q22 = $7.1 billion
(vs. $7 billion in 4Q21; +1.4% YoY)
Net revenue 4Q22 = $24.5 billion
(vs. $22 billion in 4Q21; +11%. YoY)
Net interest income 4Q22 = $14.7 billion (+48% YoY)
Noninterest income 4Q22 = $9.8 billion (-8% YoY)
Noninterest expenses 4Q22 = $15.5 billion ( +6% YoY)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Banks gonna run? Why?Lets start with the establish trend, we have a lower high showing opportunity to continue to open up 2023. If you look closely you will see that we have a bullish hidden divergence. But does it have enough strength to blast through the Bullish line. If it does I can see it starting to fill those imbalance candles and attempt to make a higher high above 38.60. If the selling pressure pushes, I can see it hold my 31.48 bearish level.
This slight reangle of the uptrend will make things interesting if the trend rides the line for over 10 days then break.
2023 opening could be a path to cheaper puts for the rest of the year. We will see.
FOMC Meeting Next Week: Bank of America Expects 50bp Rate Hike The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, and investors are eagerly anticipating the outcome of the meeting. Bank of America Global Research has discussed its expectations for the meeting, saying that it expects the Fed to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 50bp in December to 4.25-4.5%.
According to Bank of America, the Fed has telegraphed this move over the last few weeks through its communications. However, the more important question is where the Fed will go next. Bank of America expects the median forecast for 2023 to move up by 50bp to 5.125%, which is consistent with its terminal rate. The bank also expects the dot plot to show 100bp of cuts each in 2024 and 2025.
In addition, Bank of America expects the macro projections in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) to be revised to show lower GDP growth and inflation than in September, and higher unemployment.
At the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bank of America expects Chair Powell to push back against easing in financial conditions and remind investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate. The bank believes that Powell will stress that the Fed's job is far from done.
Overall, Bank of America expects the FOMC meeting next week to be consistent with the Fed's previous communications and for there to be no major surprises or shifts in policy.
Some Jargon Explained
The Dot Plot
The dot plot, also known as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a visual representation of Federal Reserve policymakers' individual forecasts for where they think key interest rates will be in the coming years. The dot plot shows the central tendency, or the middle of the range, of the individual forecasts for the federal funds rate.
Each participant in the FOMC meeting provides their own individual forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year, as well as over the longer run. These forecasts are then plotted on a chart, with the dots representing the individual forecasts and the lines connecting the dots indicating the median of the group's forecasts.
The dot plot is released four times per year, along with the FOMC's policy statement, and provides insight into the collective thinking of FOMC members about the future path of interest rates. It is an important tool for investors to gauge the future direction of monetary policy.
The Terminal Rate
The terminal rate, also known as the long-run federal funds rate or the equilibrium real interest rate, is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve believes is consistent with the long-run health of the economy. It represents the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and is expected to prevail in the long run, once the economy has reached its full employment and price stability goals.
The terminal rate is not a fixed number, and can change over time depending on a variety of factors such as changes in the underlying productivity and demographic trends of the economy. The Federal Reserve uses the terminal rate as a reference point when setting its short-term interest rate targets.
In general, the terminal rate is expected to be lower than the current federal funds rate, as the Fed typically raises interest rates in the short run to prevent the economy from overheating and then lowers them in the long run to support economic growth. This means that the terminal rate can provide important information about the future direction of monetary policy.
10/16/22 BACBank of America Corporation ( NYSE:BAC )
Sector: Finance (Major Banks)
Current Price: $31.70
Breakout price trigger: $32.65
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $30.90-$29.00
Price Target: $35.50-$36.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-50d
Contract of Interest: $BAC 12/16/21 32c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.96/cnt
EURGBP bullish scenario:EUR/GBP was rallying on Wednesday on the diverging policy expectations from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank that meets on Thursday. This will be a key and popular meeting among central bank watchers as the Governing Council has the unenviable task of being the first team from the major central banks to provide an assessment of the impact on the Ukrainian crisis on growth, inflation and monetary policy.
In this pair, technical analysis shows a technical figure Flag. The Flag broke through the resistance line on 10/03/2022. EUR/GBP is forming a bullish formation on a daily chart. If the price holds above this level, we will have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days with a target of 0.84780. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 0.8203 if you enter this position.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
AFRM Long - Affirm Holdings, Inc. - The Triple Affirmed PlayAFRM Long - Affirm Holdings, Inc. - The Triple Affirmed Play (Flow, Dark pool, and Capital Inflows into Tech)
This long biased thesis is based on the following factors:
An aggressive series of short term bullish call option flow totaling $413.5k with a strike price of $70 coming in within the last 20mins of the day (July 1st) that exceeded Open Interest.
Approximately $20M in dark pool activity placed at key levels mid day. Although we do not know the nature of this we were able to see it act as respected levels through out the day and are currently trading above these levels. Also one of the dark pool prints came in at a respected fib level, further showing consistency with price action. Continued upside price action will further increased the probability that these trades were a buy.
Price action has been consolidating for around two months and is primed for a move, making the timing of the the options flow orders and dark pool activity that much more relevant to an upward move.
Bank of America Flow Show report released today (July 1st) showed an inflow of $1.1bn into the tech sector.
Bank of America comments came out with AFRM as a high conviction short-term recommendation.
Possible Threats:
The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from.
Price has been rallying for the last two months and a half and a double top pattern had formed mid June, but continued price action may have already shown the pattern to have met its price potential.
Short term tactical sentiment for the tech sector is coming to an overheated area and a bearish downtrend may soon show up to push tech stocks, in general, downward.
That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred.
The July 1st dark pool levels are being used to define the following trade parameters:
Short Entry: price levels above, but in close proximity of the $68.27 (dark pool print)
Stop Loss: The invalidation of the ascending channel support line (conservative) or the break of lower dark pool level of $67.75 (aggressive)
Possible Targets:
$72.81 (currently) - Anchored VWAP (from all time high)
$79.30 - A support / resistance level that has been respected by prior price action
$85 - A fib level that may coincide with a ascending channel resistance line
$96.80 - The 50% retracement fib level from all time highs to all time lows
Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines
This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice.
AFRM Daily Chart
Bank Of America facing a bearish mode?Some investors are looking for bonds instead of the banking loans (just for a while). Bank Of America is one of them, also they're going to report on October 15th, so the market is considering a better price for buying. Keep in mind that Wall Street is looking for a target of around $34. In my case, I'd like to see a real buying opportunity below $26.
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