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CADJPY: UpdateSeems like this pair will offer a perfect short opportunity anytime now. As depicted in the chart, we can see that price reached a critical resistance level after completing an AB=CD pattern from the low to the sideways correction start and end. I'll post if I find a good entry opportunity with good risk/reward ratio asap. If aggressive, you can short now under the low and target the horizontal red dashed line for taking partial profits, but I prefer to wait for a cleaner entry, fine tuning from the 4h and 1h charts. Keep in mind that Gov. Poloz is speaking tomorrow, in 8hs from now, so the market might wait for that event to increase momentum and turn one directional. Good luck! Ivan. Update: Seems like the perfect short entry is near: Taking a small position with a tight stop once time expires.
Short
by IvanLabrie
20
$AUDCAD: Target Hit; Abysmal Target Next | $AUD $CAD #forexHello Friends, As you may recall, last analysis demonstrated that we hit TG-1 = 1.01173 dead-on, and there remained the possibility of a TG-Lo = 1.00892, although the question was whether Wave-4 of a large 5-wave pattern had completed and would instead move on to a higher and final impulse Wave-5 at TG-Hi = 1.02346 - All of these targets add been defined by the predictive/forecasting model on 30 JUL 2014. At this point, Point-5 distinguished itself by its price validation, albeit at a fraction of a pip missing (data on TradingView indicates 1.02336, whereas a separate FXCM-USA data indicates 1.02339, both a few fractions short of the TG-Lo value at 1.02346). Assuming that the experience trader had fronted his Take-Profit position (moving T/P ahead of the TG by the value of the spread), then we hope that this predictive targeting got you in the green. If not, perhaps next time, we'll try to be less precise and allow for that little "je ne sait quoi". TECHNICALLY: Elliott Wave's 1-2-3-4-5 structure has completed. Trader should now turn to a 3-wave correction (A-B-C) which should help define the first impulsive manifestation of Wave-1 within a new 1-2-3-4-5 wave structure. For the time being, I would wait and keep the directional bias under "Neutral". PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING: The predictive/Forecasting model is putting out an abysmal 0.99796 target down below. This target has no predictive value at this time, therefore, it remains to be defined as a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) or a qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo). DEFINITIONS: As you may recall, quantitative targets define levels of significant R/S rated at a decreasing probability of getting hit, where price might hold, consolidate or retrace at a significant Fibonacci level, whereas qualitative targets define levels of significant reversibility, where price has a much lesser probability of attaining, but if and once it does so, price will have a high probability of reversing. The analogy here is that of a recoil, which makes it more and more difficult to compress (lesser probability of complete compression), but once it reached that level, it will spring out forcefully with great probability). OVERALL: Price hit last Point-5 of the 5-Wave Elliott structure; expect a reversal to the downside ever since that event completed. An abysmal target is defined through the predictive/forecasting model at: TG = 0.99796 - This is a neutral target (i.e.: neither quantitative nor qualitative - see definition above), and a model-based direction remains to be confirmed at this point. I hope you have enjoyed the prior analyses and that you will continue to follow them on Twitter under @4xForecaster. I have also started to share important information on large banks position in the Forex market. Since institutional force is the wind that move the Forex, it is quite essential to know who goes where. Experienced retail traders can then affirm their own positions against the revealed trades made by the large banks. Thank you for your kind referral among friends and colleagues. There is nothing to buy, nothing for sale, and no gimmick - Just pure unadulterated advanced technical analysis pornographic pleasure. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis/Forecasting Denver, Colorado, USA
by 4xForecaster
9
Bearish Targets ... Even Deeper Downside? | $NZD $CAD #RBNZ #BOCFriends, On a pure fundamental basis, a rate-based directional bias should favor a decline in the NZDCAD pair. First, $NZD was recently affected by a decline in its dairy futures pricing, bringing the currency to a double-top formation near the 0.87525 level, and capping any new advance on the back on these futures price concerns. Also, RBNZ stated: "We saw nothing today to change our view that this tightening cycle has a long way to run before it’s all over and done", suggesting a low-likelihood of any added hike in its rate, especially following its 25% cash rate hike on June 11, 2014. On the Loonie side, #BOC remains in a wait-and-see stance. Its initial consideration was to favor a decline in its rate. However, it also expressed concerns about any rate hike based on its export impact. In fact, consensus so far sees a "positive manufacturing trends and an improving U.S. economy" as a basis for an ulterior rate hike, but none have expressed a likelihood for this rate hike to occur in July 2014 - Rather, an increasing number of economist are suggesting that November would represent the earliest such hike, if at all. PATTERN ANALYSIS: On a pure pattern play, this category of trader might perceive the morphing of either Bullish Bat, whose Point-D would complete the pattern at 0.92020, although a more bearishly expectant trader might see a crab completing at a lower 0.89802 level. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The model has produced a bearish market reversal confirmation signal, setting two bearish targets as follows: 1 - TG-1 = 0.92446 - 07 JUL 2014 and 2 - TG-2 = 0.91884 - 07 JUL 2014 These targets are colored to suggest that TG-1 (yellow) represents a moderate-probability target, whereas TG-2 (red) represents a lower-probability target. However, further downside is also probable, based on the recency of the reversal signal and the potential downside revealed by daily and weekly timeframes. OVERALL: Bearish outlook is based on the complicity of fundamental, pattern and predictive model data. An interim reaction to the upside remains a possibility as usual, but the technical data favors a downturn so far. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive & Forecasting Analysis ------------------ Twitter: @4xForecasting ------------------
Short
by 4xForecaster
2
Short Opp @ 93.995 On The Move | $CAD $JPY #BOC #BOJ #ForexFriends, In case you had missed one of the many signals I release via my Twitter alias, @4xForecaster, here is a repost of the tweet from this June 03rd, 2014: --------------------------------- "$CADJPY - Short opp @ 93.995 - SL trader's tolerance risk (mine: 94.03 = 93.995 + spread) - S/T TP@ 93.371 - L/T TP@ 91.489 - High RR" --------------------------------- Time-posted source: twitter.com As of this morning, the trade is well on its way, although today's data may frustrate the plan. Nonetheless, I thought it was worth posting this for the record, as price continues to near the S/T target at 93.371. Added downside exists on a technical basis, but the force of the fundamentals might tip the balance one side or another between here and the more abysmal target. More on this as time elapses. While the trade was generated based on a technical basis, the predictive/forecasting model remains at an impass, between a S/T bearish bias and a L/T bullish bias, making the directional bias a "Neutral" one, and elevating this trade at a highly-speculative level. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting --------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster Forecast archive: bit.ly ---------------------
by 4xForecaster
1
Broke Triangle; Remains In Channel; Mixed picture | $CAD #forexFriends, Last March 12th, 2014, I defined the following preliminary targets: 1 - 1.11998 and 2 - 1.14694 These targets remain in force and in sight, based on a combination of technical validations, namely: PROS: 1 - A potential Elliott Wave Wave-4 completion of a diagonal triangle 2 - Added validation of a long-term channel at recent rally point 3 - Model remains bullish, but calls for interim decline CONS: 1 - About 2 months ago, I released a Wolfe pattern target @ 1.07445. While price has moved towards it, it remains incomplete. This comes in direct contradiction with above technical picture, since validation of this bearish target would pull price out of the channel fenestration. Use TradingView's replay feature to see how well price action has moved towards said target - Target released: - Updated: 2 - While model remains bullish, the interim decline could break below the recent structural lows, thus invalidating above technical-based analysis. In doing so, it would affirm the robustness of the model, though, which in the H4 timeframe did define 1.07445, but in the daily frame sees higher highs. Based on the third point above, a signal remains pending. However, considering the disproportionate amount of classic pattern traders I am assuming exists, I thought it was worth highlighting the recent technical picture, which seems to support a continuation of the price action upwards, based on simple pattern (wedge and channel). As indicated earlier, the model remains bullish, but does call for an interim relaxation to the downside. I expect price action to remain above recent lows - Directional signal will be kept at "Neutral" until signal falls in line and reinforces the dominant technical picture. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting --------------------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ---------------------------
by 4xForecaster
11