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BTC.D Analysis: Retest of Key Area Highly LikelyBitcoin Dominance Looking Bitcoin dominance looks very strong but BTC has entered the range. So I think dominance may follow a calmer course for a while, a few coins that have separated from the herd may make good moves in these few days, but it is too early to claim that the general atmosphere is completely bullish, because SP500 seems to be making a deep correction and is giving signals of this. I do not buy anything during the New Year, and I will not buy, but then I will spend all of these corrections with buying because I believe that 2025 will be good. A retest of this area in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) seems very possible based on current market behavior. This level holds significance as a potential reaction zone for further movements. Also, I see no point in saying that this view of dominance supports the blue box analysis I shared here: Because when BTC goes down to blue box we will see an upside move on dominance then we blue box of dominance chart will support the price, we will see an upmove on both. Key Points: Current Setup: BTC.D is approaching a critical area of interest. Retest Likelihood: Market dynamics suggest a probable revisit to this zone. Focus: Monitoring the reaction at this level for future directional clarity. If you think this analysis helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share more insights with you! I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by XU99
Bitcoin: How to Trade the Ranges Like a ProWe are in a relative range. The reactions from the 0.5 levels are proof of this. In a similar analysis, I had previously made one of the best trades that could be made in BTC. The manipulations of this range at the 0.25 and -1.25 levels are not very regular. Also, the movements it makes are far from creating symmetry, so we cannot compare this analysis to the previous one. How to trade here? First of all, we are not in any serious demand area and it would not be wise to assume that there is any serious resistance range. So what will we do? We will try to find entries from the upper and lower parts of this range. My short analysis on the upper part is available here. The initiative at the bottom can be the Range Low and the green line. So can the price continue down without giving a short opportunity? Of course it can, in this case our stop loss order will be triggered. I don't like to take high risk in such non-serious demand areas. However, I don't want to neglect a point that can give 1 to 3-4 in the lower area of ​​the range. If my long order comes, I will take a large part of my profit on the upper part of the range, pull my stop to the entry and open the short trade. Don't hesitate to carry two trades in two directions, especially if the price seems to form a range. And when the price starts to go voluminously below or above the range, definitely let your stop order be executed and stop your loss. If you think this helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share with you. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
Bitcoin | Low Timeframe TradeIf the market breaks below the red line, I will place an order at 98.464$ as shown in the figure. This is a low timeframe trade and please do not take too much risk on it. I usually do my analysis in the high timeframe and take most of my risk there. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
IBIT | Be PatientThe market is declining rapidly, and Bitcoin remains highly volatile, making it dangerous to take risks in the current environment. I have marked the HTF (High Time Frame) demand zones as critical areas to monitor. Trades should be based on the reactions observed in these demand zones on lower timeframes. This approach helps minimize risk while identifying potential entry points with stronger confirmation. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by XU99
BITCOIN | IF DECLINE GOES DEEPERThe possibility of a deepening decline appears serious, and it’s essential to stay prepared for such scenarios. I have identified my hedge short levels at the red boxes, which I consider key areas for managing risk and capitalizing on potential downward movements. Monitoring these levels closely will be crucial to adapting effectively to the market's evolving structure. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
Bitcoin's road to 150,000 Bitcoin Halving 2024: A New Era The fourth Bitcoin halving, expected on April 15, 2024, will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, increasing scarcity and reinforcing its deflationary nature. Historically, halving cycles drive three phases: a bullish uptrend in the first 70,000 blocks, a bearish retracement in the next 70,000, and sideways consolidation before the next halving. This cycle points to a potential peak of $150,000, supported by historical trends, logarithmic regression, and metrics like the MVRV ratio. Current Market Position Bitcoin has emerged from the sideways phase of the third halving era (2020–2024) and is poised for a bullish run. The MVRV ratio, currently at 2.24, signals fair value, with room for growth. Historical patterns show Bitcoin dominance surges above 70% during bullish phases, supporting price appreciation. Halving Cycles and Projections Bitcoin's logarithmic regression model aligns with these price phases: Bullish Phase (0–70,000 blocks): Exponential growth; projected high of $150,000. Bearish Phase (70,000–140,000 blocks): Retracement of 80%, with lows around $55,000. Sideways Phase (140,000–210,000 blocks): Consolidation before the next cycle. MVRV Ratio Insights The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) serves as a key valuation tool: MVRV > 3.7: Overbought, market tops. MVRV < 1: Undervalued, market bottoms. The current reading of 2.24 reflects equilibrium, signaling potential upside. Timeline Overview April 2024 (Halving): Demand rises, supply tightens, sparking bullish momentum. 2025–2026: Peak at $150,000 as the bullish phase matures. Post-Bullish Phase: Retracement to $55,000, consistent with historical patterns. Conclusion Bitcoin’s cyclical dynamics, driven by halving mechanisms, position it uniquely in financial markets. Historical data and on-chain metrics suggest a bullish trajectory to $150,000, with an 80% drawdown to $55,000 post-peak. While short-term volatility remains, Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a store of value persists. Disclaimer: This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile, and past performance does not predict future results. Sources Coin Metrics CryptoQuant TradingView Data Analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
1
BTC Faces Significant Selling Pressure from Long-Term HoldersBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has faced intensified selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs), who have offloaded approximately 1 million BTC since mid-September, contributing to its current 13% dip from its all-time high of $108,000. This marks the largest discount since the U.S. presidential election. While short-term holders (STHs) have stepped in to absorb some of this supply, demand imbalance continues to weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s price. 1. Long-Term Holders’ Selling Behavior LTHs, defined as investors holding BTC for over 155 days, have been distributing their holdings as prices show strength. Over the past week, LTHs sold 70,000 BTC in a single day, marking the fourth-largest one-day sell-off this year, according to Glassnode data. Their holdings have dropped from 14.2 million BTC in September to 13.2 million BTC, signaling a strategic move to realize profits during this period of heightened market volatility. 2. Short-Term Holders Absorbing Supply STHs have accumulated 1.3 million BTC during the same period, partially offsetting LTHs' selling. However, this accumulation hasn’t been enough to sustain upward momentum, resulting in continued price weakness. 3. Market Liquidity and Exchange Activity The circulating supply of Bitcoin stands at 19.8 million tokens, with 2.8 million BTC held on exchanges. Notably, 200,000 BTC have exited exchanges in recent months, indicating a trend of investors moving assets to cold storage. This dwindling exchange balance could limit immediate liquidity, further impacting market dynamics. Technical Outlook Bitcoin is trading in a bearish zone, currently down 0.49% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42. The recent market sell-off liquidated approximately $1.4 billion, exacerbating downward pressure. Key Levels to Watch Support Level: If selling persists, CRYPTOCAP:BTC could dip to $85,000, a key support level aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Resistance Level: For a bullish reversal, CRYPTOCAP:BTC must break through $101,000, a pivotal psychological and technical barrier that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Outlook and Implications The ongoing selling by LTHs reflects a strategic shift, possibly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and profit-taking at current levels. Meanwhile, STHs’ buying activity suggests continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. However, the imbalance between supply and demand could lead to further short-term price volatility. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels and market activity from these cohorts to anticipate the next significant price movement. Conclusion Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains uncertain amid significant selling pressure from LTHs. While oversold technical indicators hint at a potential rebound, the lack of sufficient demand from STHs raises concerns about sustained recovery. The next few days will be critical for Bitcoin as it navigates these pivotal price levels. Will CRYPTOCAP:BTC bounce back like it has in past corrections, or is a deeper dip on the horizon? Only time will tell. Stay tuned for further updates!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin Fed Can’t Hold Bitcoin, No Plans Yet To Change Law, Powell Says Jerome Powell says the Fed isn't allowed to own Bitcoin. He also says the bank cannot create a stockpile of digital assets. The market immediately reacted to Powell's statement, sending Bitcoin's price down by 5.7%.Bitcoin Decline Continues: Are Bulls Losing Control? Bitcoin price extended losses and traded below the $100,000 zone. BTC is struggling and might continue to move down toward the $92,000 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $102,000 resistance zone. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $98,500. Glassnode's Week on Chain report revealed the similarities between the current Bitcoin uptrend and previous cycles amid changing market conditions. Meanwhile, long-term investors began distributing their tokens at the $100K level, culminating in a new all-time high of $2.1 billion in realized profitsAccording to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode's weekly report, Bitcoin's current price performance has a striking resemblance with the 2015-2018 and 2018-2021 cycles despite the changing dynamics in its market structure. Like previous cycles, the selling pressure that accompanies sustained price increases has remained but at a much lower pace. The deepest drawdown in this cycle occurred on August 5, 2024, when prices dropped 32% below their peak
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by KingForex078
PRCL/USDT THE THE SKY IS THE LIMITPRCL/USDT SPOT update. The main markets have experienced a breakdown trend, particularly since BTC's last trend shift. PRCL/USDT is currently in a crucial support zone, which could be confirmed before 2025. What happens if this support zone is confirmed before 2025? It means the coin has the potential to break out, with a target price of up to $1. The coming 5 days can be important, after the data study of the last months. There is a signal of DCA data at the end of the month. For day traders there is no reason to enter this coin until it is confirmed the $0,50 could become interesting for the break.
Long
by SatochiTrader
BTC/USD "Bitcoin" Crypto Market Heist Plan on Bearish Side🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the BTC/USD "Bitcoin" Crypto market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📉 : You can enter a short trade at any point, however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest high level. Goal 🎯: 90,000 Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Short
by Thief_Trader
BTC SHORT TO $94,760Finally some clarity from BTC, well worth sitting on our hands for a short period. We created a short term down trend with multiple confirmations (SMA break and rejection, LL's & LH's etc) a retracement back to the golden ratio and a rejection from a major key level has resulted in some bearish momentum for BTC and all correlated markets. We'll se how this plays out as exhaustion will play some restriction in the momentum BTC can hold although i do think the target / 61.8% retracement level will be met of $94,760 Also currently waiting on BTC to produce a new LL on the 1H time frame so lets see how that pans out. I have moved stop to $11,065 to lock in 1.5% as we've been out the market for a few days. P.S, sorry slightly late on posting this idea
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by h77nry
1
Bitcoin Dips to $96K Amid MARA and Hut 8’s Major Accumulation SpBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the flagship cryptocurrency, faced a notable price dip to $96,300, reflecting a 6% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this, significant institutional purchases by MARA Holdings and Hut 8 highlight the growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. Institutional Accumulation on the Rise MARA recently purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529 per Bitcoin, totaling $1.53 billion. This acquisition, financed through zero-coupon convertible notes, has increased their holdings to 44,394 BTC, worth $4.45 billion at current prices. MARA’s year-to-date BTC yield stands at an impressive 60.9%, underscoring their strategic accumulation approach. Another institutional player, Hut 8, announced the purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million. These acquisitions demonstrate that major players view current prices as an attractive entry point, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value. Market Sentiment and Activity Despite the dip, CryptoQuant reports no signs of widespread panic selling. This indicates resilience among market participants, with many holding firm in anticipation of a rebound. Additionally, Bitcoin remains 4.59% up in December and 60% up over the past four months, reflecting its strong performance in the broader macroeconomic environment. Technical Analysis 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 35, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded a price rebound. 2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Immediate support is observed at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone that could stabilize the price. However, persistent selling pressure might push Bitcoin lower, with potential targets at: - $90,000 (1-month low) - $80,000 (key psychological level) 3. Volume and Liquidations: Over $100 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, suggesting significant market volatility. Short-Term Outlook While the dip has raised concerns, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by robust institutional demand. The oversold technical conditions and significant support levels suggest a potential recovery in the coming days. However, traders should remain cautious, as further dips could occur if broader market conditions deteriorate. Conclusion Bitcoin’s dip to $96K reflects short-term volatility, but the sustained interest from institutional players like MARA and Hut 8 underscores its long-term potential. As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, making this an opportune moment for investors to assess their strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DEXWireNews
Navigating the Current Market Turbulence: A Crypto and Stock MarBitcoin is currently trading at approximately $102,200, reflecting a decrease of 2.36% over the last week. Despite a brief rally reaching highs of $108,367.38, the digital currency has faced selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 65, indicating that BTC might still be overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests bearish momentum could persist. Investors should be cautious as the market shows signs of volatility. For cryptocurrencies, monitoring RSI and MACD indicators can provide insights into potential buying opportunities.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pBouDib
Bitcoin & Macro Analysis fo 2025From previous analysis, BTC on target and Hit Fibonacci Extension 1.272 at $108.000 And rejected from this area For now, BTC need pullback before continuing rally You can see pullback area at : - Fibonacci Retracement 0.236 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.386 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.5 Be cautious with your decisions, especially for 2025 , as the Dec 2024 Summary of Economic Projections release has impacted the market. Macro economic conditions are solid, but the Fed's decision left the market disappointed. After release Summary of Economic Projections Dec 18 FOMC, market was disappointed since The Fed's forecast cut rates only 2x or maybe just 1x (3.9) instead of 4x as SEP projected in September (3.4).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kelvin_gautama9
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
Market Correction: Key Support Levels and Strategic OpportunitieThe market has experienced a decline over the past few days, leading to the liquidation of leveraged long positions and the introduction of new liquidity. This may represent a healthy correction within the context of the broader market trend, which remains firmly upward. As such, the optimal strategy continues to be to buy on dips. Key levels to monitor include the strong support area around 84,500, with additional support at the 73,000 level. While these support levels may not be reached, it is wise to stay alert for potential buying opportunities if the market approaches them. Take care!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MCFractalStudies