ETF Debacle: SEC's Denial Could Trigger Historic Crypto CrashThe cryptocurrency market is on edge as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to make a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). If the SEC denies approval, it could send shockwaves through the industry, potentially triggering a massive sell-off that would wipe out billions of dollars in value.
ETFs are a type of investment product that allows investors to buy and sell shares in a basket of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities. In the case of a Bitcoin ETF, investors would be able to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without having to directly purchase it. This would make Bitcoin more accessible to a wider range of investors, potentially driving up its price and fueling the overall cryptocurrency market.
However, the SEC has been reluctant to approve a Bitcoin ETF, citing concerns about the volatility and lack of regulation of the cryptocurrency market. If the SEC maintains its stance and denies approval, it could send a strong signal that regulators are not yet ready to embrace Bitcoin as a mainstream investment asset.
This could lead to a loss of confidence among investors, who may question the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. As a result, they may start selling their holdings, which could trigger a domino effect of selling that could drive prices down significantly.
In the worst-case scenario, a denial of a Bitcoin ETF could trigger a "rug pull," a sudden and dramatic decline in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This could result in billions of dollars in losses for investors and could even lead to the collapse of some cryptocurrency exchanges.
The potential for a rug pull is a major concern for the cryptocurrency community. Investors are already on edge due to the volatile nature of the market, and a denial of a Bitcoin ETF could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
If the SEC does decide to deny approval of a Bitcoin ETF, it could be the biggest rug pull of all time. The impact would be felt far and wide, and it could take years for the cryptocurrency market to recover.
Bitcoinetf
Bitcoin(BTC): Pre-Halving Drop? / Repeat Of History?Bitcoin's monthly chart is painting an intriguing picture as we edge closer to the April 2024 halving. The price is not only going for an attempt to test previous all-time highs but the RSI is echoing a pattern from the last pre-halving period, striking a pattern to be repeated with historical price movements.
As we see the RSI return to levels it last saw right before the drop caused by the halving, traders who have been in the business for a long time are on high alert for a possible repeat of history. The way the market is going now reminds us of the push before the halving.
P.S. Past performance does not always mean future performance, but the market is paying attention as so are we.
We will all be wise to consider the lessons of the past halving cycles, balancing optimism with a disciplined review of the RSI and price action.
ARK ADAM AND EVE PATTERN: CURRENTLY ON A CRITICAL KEY LEVEL In this chart of BINANCE:ARKUSDT , the coin is forming an Adam and Eve pattern looking at the historical movements, the coin is in a downtrend, and the market is indicating a bullish reversal for ARK.
Currently, the coin is on consolidation around the pattern neckline area. It is a waiting game for the coin and in order for the pattern to materialize, we need to see a convincing confirmation of a breakout on the neckline on an hourly basis.
I'll provide updates on the comment thread for more detailed technical analysis.
Stay safe and happy trading!
Navigating Bitcoin's Surge with a Keen Eye on the SEC's Next MovBitcoin is defying expectations, carving a path through the $38K barrier with the tenacity of a bull. The recent rally from $36,886 to $38,437 wasn't just a fluke; it's a statement. Even more compelling is Bitcoin's graceful dance above the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $37,662, dismissing any doubts about its current strength.
Away from the charts, the SEC's recent decision to delay the Bitcoin ETF ruling to 2024 has stirred the pot. But instead of a setback, it seems to have injected a curious mix of caution and anticipation into the market. The buzz around institutional investors' potential new avenue into Bitcoin has some pundits dreaming of a $40k weekend – a bold call, but not unwarranted.
So, what's next for Bitcoin? If we slice through the 0.382 Fib level at $37,845, we're looking at a series of intriguing possibilities:
- First Stop: $38,437, where Bitcoin last took a breather.
- Onward to: $39,029, blending optimism with cold, hard math.
- Then maybe: $39,396, where Fibonacci's legacy meets crypto reality.
- And if we're lucky: $40,947, where we align with expert forecasts and round-number charm.
As traders, we find ourselves at the intersection of intricate chart patterns and the unfolding drama of regulatory decisions. It's essential to keep a close eye on both because this dance between the technicals and the fundamentals is what will drive Bitcoin's journey in the days ahead.
#GBTC - Grayscale -9.7% to Net asset ValueWhere is Barry Silbert?
:)
Anyway Grayscale #Bitcoin trust
is a few months away from achieving equal valuation to it's holdings of #BTC
What does it mean ? Mainly its a sentiment indicator this cycle, but it still holds a vast quantity of coins so we will see if all these #ETF's get approved.
Big players can get exposure to discounted BTC still! ( plus the yearly fund fee)
When the discount goes away and the low cost ETF's get approved
that buy pressure is likely to shift to those vehicles instead.
Bitcoin: One Person's Fear is Another Person's GreedFirst off, what the f*ck?
I believe Bitcoin should correct back to at least the 50% Fib Level -- if not the 38.2% -- so that we can see a healthy rally upwards. Years of trading crypto has taught me that every rally has a near equal correction. But emotions and bias will be the death of your portfolio so here's my unbiased analysis of the world's greatest cryptocurrency:
- Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle on multiple charts which is a bullish sentiment on its own.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a steady increase in buying pressure since the start of the recent rally. Layman's terms: buying pressure is outcompeting selling pressure.
- Money Flow Index (MFI) has an inverse slope that favors oversold and is currently relaxing in neutral territory safely away from overbought.
These three indicators lead me to believe that Bitcoin may experience another breakout in the coming weeks and, potentially, without a dip back to $30.5K as I previously forecasted. At risk of stating the obvious, news can shake the markets enough to reverse any trajectory but yesterday's Binance update hardly rattled Bitcoin like it did for altcoins.
It's my personal opinion that the Bitcoin ETF decision is the closest catalyst in determining the next major rally or drop. However, we can't forget about the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving which is expected around April 2024. If the ETF does get rejected, this may provide a very lucrative buying opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
The World of ETFsIn the vast landscape of investments, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) stand as a unique bridge, merging the best of both stocks and mutual funds. While traditional managed funds pool investors' money into assets managed by professionals, ETFs introduce a compelling twist, allowing for the flexibility of stock trading.
Unlike managed funds, ETFs are akin to stocks, enabling investors to buy and sell them at any time during market hours . This accessibility aligns ETFs more closely with the dynamic nature of stocks, catering to the on-demand needs of modern investors.
However, just like any investment, ETFs come with their nuances and risks. Diversification, often touted as an investment safety net, does mitigate some risks but can't fully shield against market volatility.
Different ETFs carry varying levels of risk, making understanding these distinctions vital before investing. Additionally, the past performance of ETFs isn't always a reliable indicator of future results, underlining the importance of comprehensive research and sound decision-making.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Gateway to Crypto Investments
In recent years, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs has added an intriguing chapter to the investment narrative. These financial instruments enable investors to engage with Bitcoin's price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ETFs, traded on conventional stock exchanges, provide an accessible avenue for traditional investors to venture into the crypto sphere.
Within the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, there are two primary types: spot and futures-based ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to Bitcoin's real-time market price, involving the actual cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, futures-based ETFs utilize Bitcoin futures contracts, enabling speculation on the asset's future price without owning the underlying asset.
The interest in Bitcoin ETFs can be attributed to several factors. First and foremost, they offer unparalleled ease of access. Trading on mainstream stock exchanges simplifies the process, allowing investors to leverage existing brokerage accounts without delving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Moreover, the regulatory oversight accompanying ETFs adds a layer of security, easing concerns related to fraud and market manipulation prevalent in unregulated crypto markets.
Additionally, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs signifies a significant shift, indicating the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems.
While the United States has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, several Bitcoin futures-linked ETFs have gained regulatory approval , broadening investment horizons.
Beyond Bitcoin: Exploring the Crypto ETF Spectrum
While Bitcoin has seized the spotlight, the crypto ETF landscape is not confined to it alone. Outside the United States, various Cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) encompass a spectrum of digital assets beyond Bitcoin. These offerings enable diversification within the digital asset space, catering to investors keen on exploring a range of cryptocurrencies.
In the United States, ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies like Ether also exist, albeit in the futures-related domain. Although spot-based crypto ETFs are yet to make their debut, the evolving regulatory landscape and market demand may pave the way for these in the future.
As the financial world continues its digital transformation, understanding ETFs and their crypto counterparts becomes paramount. By bridging the gap between traditional stocks and the dynamic crypto sphere, ETFs empower investors with newfound opportunities and avenues for portfolio growth.
Stay tuned for the evolving of crypto ETFs, where the world of investments meets the future of finance.
BTC/USD - Reached W pattern TP Target. #BTC BITCOIN reached its W pattern take profit target.
expecting a pull back too retest the breakout to see a continuation too the upside. 40-48k which is where I predict we will see a reversal, based off previous price actions and cycle's.
Defiantly a danger zone where ill be paying close attention too!
*completely different macro environment with many variables.
*recession indicators signalling + combined with a potential inflow off new currency due to the current war's happening around the world.
Short term view looking to back test. 32 - 29k range which would indicate a bullish reversal if we see daily candle closes above. once reached.
possible wick down to the 28k zone. although BTC is in a strong position with the potential of the BITCOIN ETF getting passed.
Altcoins are waking up! exciting times ahead..
previous chart attached below... 13/04/2023
BTC - LongI like how this looks, a lot. I think 30k comes soon. I believe we just broke out of diagonal resistance and retested it. The performance of btc vs equities has been impressive, i also anticipate the grayscale lawsuit to be a big catalyst over the next week. SEC has until Oct 13th to respond to the lawsuit and its looking good for grayscale imo. If grayscale succeeds it'll be a lead indicator on ETF approval.
RB Calling for TOP! Comparing Bitcoin's 2019 Rebound with 2023.Hello my dear readers!
Many of us find themselves drawing parallels between past and present, searching for clues about what the future holds for Bitcoin. In this analysis, I will explore the comparison between Bitcoin's market bottom and rebound in 2019 and its current resurgence in 2023.
Can we project a price target of up to $47,000 based on this analysis? Let's dive in.
Resemblance to 2019:
Upon closer examination, it becomes evident that 2023's Bitcoin market rebound shares remarkable similarities with the 2019 scenario. The patterns, trends, and key indicators align in a way that raises intrigue among traders and analysts.
Inverted Wedge Formation:
One compelling aspect is the formation of an inverted wedge pattern. This pattern, which commenced right at the market bottom, is strikingly reminiscent of the conditions observed in 2019. The inverted wedge is a promising sign for traders, as historically, it has often preceded significant upward movements in Bitcoin's price.
Crash Patterns:
Another interesting facet of this comparison is the resemblance in crash patterns. The crash pattern observed in the current cycle shares characteristics with the previous one, yet it appears more condensed and narrow. This contrast becomes especially evident when compared to the flatter pattern that prevailed in 2018-2019.
Projection for Bitcoin's Price:
Based on this analysis, there is a potential projection of Bitcoin's price targeting up to $47,000. This projection aligns with the trends and patterns observed in both 2019 and the current market, offering an exciting prospect to monitor in the coming months.
As we observe the ever-evolving dynamics of the market, this comparison between the events of 2019 and 2023 serves as a captivating reminder of the intriguing possibilities and patterns that have the potential to shape Bitcoin's journey.
While I cannot predict the future with absolute certainty, my mission here is to empower you with my detailed market analysis and insights.
💛 If you've journeyed this far with me, why not show your support by hitting the ' boost 🚀' button and following my page? And if you're already a subscriber, feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section below.
Do you spot a correlation between these two periods, or do you anticipate a different trajectory?
Always Yours Kateryna 💙💛
Bitcoin Impulse downIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
I am seeing an impulse down. Is it a completed corrective structure, or a signal for some more retracement?
BTC - FAKE ETF News cause BULL-trap👎Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
There has been interesting volatility on BTC in the past 24 hours, with fake news being released on X, alleging that the SEC approved Blackrock's iShare spot ETF (they haven't).
Directly from the Cointelegraph website, 16 hours ago:
"Earlier today, during routine coverage, Cointelegraph’s social media team posted a message on X without prior editorial approval stating that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission had approved BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, or ETF. This was false, the result of misinformation. The news lead originated from an unconfirmed screenshot posted by an X user who claimed it was from the Bloomberg Terminal. "
Pretty much immediately after this article, the price started to retrace. It seems to me like severe insider trading / purposeful deceit. Interestingly enough, the price turned at EXACTLY 30K which seems very unnatural. It will be interesting to see whether the SEC reacts to this, or if it's just another day in crypto.
Luckily, as per all our previous posts on altcoins, I'm not trading BTC at the moment. Reason being I was expecting algo's on Bitcoin, as range trading often attracts bots. My focus is still on altcoins at the moment.
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
BTC TRIANGLE BREAKOUT WILL IT CONTINUE?Last week, I published my idea about the next massive move of BTC as it enters the crucial stage of the triangle in this chart of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
At 8 AM ET, we saw a price breakout of BTC from the near 2-year-long diagonal resistance. This leap happened upon the "breaking" news of SEC approval of the iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF application. The coin reached its price of nearly $30,000 before it was deemed to be false.
That causes it to go pump-and-dump and notice that the price movement is still above the resistance as it stabilizes after that hype, which shows the demand from the market as well as respecting the trendline that could potentially be the new diagonal support line of BTC from a technical perspective.
But be mindful that ETF approval news could happen anytime this week and, let's be aware with our trading positions at this time, set areas for stop profits and stop loss because although we're in a slightly bullish trend, we are embracing the world of cryptocurrency, volatilities is observed at any given time, thus invalidating our technical analysis. Take something with a grain of salt.
My next strategy would be a potential bounce play of the coin on the trendline at the $28,000 range. I'm optimistic that the SEC won't deny the Bitcoin ETF applications and consider the false information and the latest market manipulation as their excuse. If denied, we could expect a breakdown from the diagonal line.
Happy trading :)
Crypto Total MC sending while MC excluding Alts lagging behindBTC spot ETF has been approved. This is why i have been saying to load up at these bear market levels. Not a time to fomo now, be patient. Its a NEWS pump.
The risk of not loading at these Bear Market levels is too high. Once we dip start scooping, prepare for all scenarios, keep in mind a black swan can always still appear with the state of the world.
Crypto Total market cap sending and hit a resistance on weekly, while the Market Caps excluding BTC is lagging behind still.
This is due to the BTC dominance pump, breaking through its local high. Expect Alts to lag behind as predicted, this is a BTC ETF not an altcoin ETF.
BUT money flows in BTC people take profit then they start buying alts, this is what has happened since inception. Be patient and keep scooping cheap alts.
BTC Dominance sending, alts will suffer most likely if this rally continues. But then you scoop and ride em when BTC starts dropping.
What do we got, bullish or bearish?Weekly Chart
Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSDT is on the support zone around $25,000 and still Bullish Trend
When zoom out to Daily Chart
Bitcoin's in Accumulating Phase from $25,000 - $27,400
Previous Accumulating Phase happened in 63 days that makes me think the same for this one.
Bitcoin is moving to Apex Zone and can breakout or breakdown but I think it's still keep main trend (bullish) because Bitcoin ETF and growth of crypto market recently.
So just wait and see what happen
BTC Whale deposited 4,451 Bitcoin on Binance equivalent to $133MThe recent significant whale move in the Bitcoin market, particularly involving the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL, raises concerns about potential downside risks for the cryptocurrency. Here are the key factors that might signal a bearish outlook for Bitcoin:
Market Manipulation Speculation:
The sudden deposit of 4,451 BTC (worth $133,689,815 USD) to Binance from the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL suggests large-scale movements by a single entity, commonly referred to as a whale. Such significant transactions can trigger speculations of market manipulation, as the actions of whales can influence Bitcoin's price in the short term. Traders and investors may become wary of sudden price swings and might choose to stay on the sidelines, leading to increased market volatility.
Potential Sell-Off Pressure:
The fact that the address 31pCdkyF6Ep8UkzpkWpv3SMbY3C5s7VhXL is currently holding 15,604 BTC (worth $467.84 million USD) raises concerns about a potential sell-off. If the whale decides to liquidate a substantial portion of its holdings, it could exert significant downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. Large-scale sell-offs often trigger panic among retail investors, leading to cascading price declines.
Increased Uncertainty:
Whale activity of this magnitude can create uncertainty among market participants, particularly regarding the future direction of Bitcoin's price. Investors may question whether the recent price appreciation is sustainable, and concerns over the potential for a market correction could lead to reduced buying interest. Heightened uncertainty may result in decreased trading volumes and overall market sentiment turning bearish.
Regulatory Scrutiny:
Large-scale whale activity in the cryptocurrency market can attract regulatory attention. Authorities may closely monitor such transactions for signs of market manipulation or illegal activities. Any regulatory intervention or negative statements could add to the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, leading to price pullbacks.
Potential Chain Reaction:
Whale moves of this magnitude often spark chain reactions, as other market participants observe the actions of major players and follow suit. This could lead to a domino effect of selling pressure, exacerbating the downside risks for Bitcoin.
For now I`m bearish on BT Bitcoin.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Volatility for Bitcoin is at all-time lowsBoth historical (30 days) and implied volatility for Bitcoins is at all-time low levels.
It seems like trades waiting for news about crypto ETFs approvals.
It might make sense to buy straddle/strangle to put a market neutral positions expecting big move and increase in volatility in Q4/2023.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and/or the script don’t provide any financial advice.
BITCOIN DESCENDING WEDGEAfter 67 days of price action we have a 4H descending wedge pattern, and currently the upper boundary is being tested.
The SPX had a similar long term pattern formation as shown on the chart. The breakthrough of the upper boundary resulted in a 13.88% rally up past the previous local high and looks extremely bullish right now. Perhaps there will be a cool off soon but Bitcoin for sure has not had this rally yet, and the descending wedge breakthrough could trigger a similar rally.
With talk of a BlackRock BTC ETF this could be the catalyst to breaking through the pattern and rallying towards the local high of 28.5K (Target 1)
Blackrock Filed for a BITCOIN Trust not ETF! SPX at 52 Week HighBitcoin enthusiasts have reason to be slightly bullish given recent developments in the market. While BlackRock's decision to file for a bitcoin trust instead of an ETF might initially disappoint some, it's important to recognize that the trust and the ETF have similarities, as many people rightly point out.
Although there are technical differences, particularly regarding regulatory approvals, the ultimate outcome for investors remains similar. Consider GBTC, a trust that currently exists—while you can't redeem directly from the fund, it appears that BlackRock's trust may offer redemption options. This potential advancement could be a significant win for investors, providing them with greater flexibility and opportunities to capitalize on their investments.
However, the real game-changer would be the introduction and approval of a true Bitcoin Spot ETF by the SEC. Such an ETF would bring about unprecedented possibilities for investors, opening up avenues for seamless and widespread participation in the bitcoin market. The approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF would not only enhance accessibility but also contribute to the overall mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies, solidifying Bitcoin's position as a legitimate asset class.
Therefore, while the current filing by BlackRock may not be the long-awaited ETF, it still represents a step forward in the right direction. The possibility of a Bitcoin Spot ETF being put forward and approved by the SEC remains an exciting prospect that could fuel further growth and market interest in Bitcoin.
Given the information provided, including the filing by BlackRock and the recent 52-week high reached by the SPX (S&P 500 index), there are potential factors that could contribute to a technical rebound in Bitcoin's falling wedge pattern. The positive market sentiment surrounding the SPX reaching a new high suggests a general bullish trend, which may spill over into other asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
A falling wedge pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation and potential reversal, making it a favorable setup for a rebound.
The $23,000 price target remains unchanged.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Bitcoin ETF and price after launchOn a chart I can't zoom out to show you 2 etf in 2013/14 but they are included in list. This is how price react in next few days, how price react in general after a few month you can see on a chart also!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Sep 25, 2013 - The Grayscale Investment Trust ETF / -31%
Sep 30, 2014 - ARK Next Generation Internet ETF / -61%
Feb 18, 2021 - Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) / +14%
Feb 19, 2021 - Evolve Bitcoin ETF (EBIT) / -23%
Apr 20, 2021 - CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF (ETHXF) / -17%
May 11, 2021 - Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF / - 47%
May 24, 2021 - Simplify US Equity PLUS GBTC ETF / -13%
July 28, 2021 - Bitcoin Strategy ProFund Investor BTCFX / -6%
Sep 20, 2021 - First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry and Digital Economy ETF / + 60%
Oct 07, 2021 - Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF / +28%
Oct 07, 2021 - Invesco Alerian Galaxy Blockchain Users and Decentralized Commerce ETF / +28%
Oct 19, 2021 - ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF / -12%
Oct 22, 2021 - Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF / -11%
Nov 15, 2021 - VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF / -35%
Nov 15, 2021 - Global X Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF / -35%
Feb 07, 2022 - Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF /
Apr 27, 2022 - AdvisorShares Managed Bitcoin Strategy ETF / -35%
June 21, 2022 - ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF / -10%
Sep 15, 2022 - Hashdex Bitcoin Futures ETF / -10%
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Will BITCOIN have its Gold moment after the ETF gets approved?Bitcoin has been on center stage with last week's rise after BlackRock, the world's largest money manager filed an application to run the first publicly traded spot bitcoin ETF in the US. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been on a repeated decade long rejection of an ETF based on trading in the underlying bitcoin asset. If however this time the industry efforts succeed, Bitcoin can see an unprecedented rally, the likes of which we haven't seen, as large institutional capital should theoretically have no hesitation and less uncertainty to enter the market.
But wait? Haven't we seen that before? Yes, for those old enough to ring a bell, it was back on March 28th 2003 when Gold Bullion Securities was launched, the first Gold EFT listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. As you can see on Gold's chart on the right, the market was at a bottom on the 1W MA50 and after the ETF was launched, it started an astonishing rally that didn't look back before completing a +500% rise.
With Bitcoin being a much smaller market and with its digital nature giving it enormous rise since its inception in 2009, if its ETF gets approved, it won't be impossible to see 10 times Gold's rise i.e. +5000% within the same 8 year period.
We have embodied the Halvings just to provide some cyclical perspective, but a +5000% rise from the current levels can send Bitcoin in 8 years to the 'unimaginable' 1 million USD mark. Unrealistic or not, it is up to each person to decide and invest for themselves.
Will Bitcoin get its Gold moment?
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