BTCUSD SELLBitcoin (BTC) ends the working week hovering around $98,000 after a very volatile Thursday when it surpassed the $100K milestone and underwent a sharp correction. Strong institutional demand, whale accumulation, and the choice of a pro-crypto figure to lead the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fueled the rally this weekHowever, traders should be cautious about a possible correction ahead as on-chain data shows holders booking profits at the top. Moreover, any moves from Mt.Gox funds and US government transfers could add to the selling pressureBitcoin surged past the $100K milestone on Thursday, reaching a peak of $104,088 before experiencing a sharp drop to $90,500. It ultimately recovered to close above $96,900. As of Friday, it is trading slightly above $98,000
Beyond Technical Analysis
Dow-n Memory Lane: Is History About to Repeat Itself?🚨 Breaking News Alert! 🚨
The Dow Jones might be partying like it’s 1929 again! 🎉 Except this time, the crash might make your portfolio flatter than a pancake at a bodybuilder's breakfast. 🥞💪
Let’s talk about the elephant in the chart 🐘—every time the Dow hits the ceiling of this oh-so-perfect wedge pattern, it nose-dives harder than your New Year’s resolutions by February. 📅💔
1906: Boom. Bust. Dow said, "Thanks, but I’m good at -90%."
1929: The OG crash. If you survived this one, congrats—you’re probably immortal now. 🧓💀
2008: The market went "Oops, I did it again" like Britney, wiping out fortunes faster than you can say "subprime mortgage." 🏚️💵
2020: "Hold my beer," said a microscopic virus, and the market tripped like it was wearing untied shoelaces. 🍺😷
Now? The chart suggests we’re flirting with another epic freefall. 🚀⬇️
🧐 How bad could it get?
Well, if history decides to copy-paste itself, we’re looking at a potential 90% drop. Yes, NINETY. PERCENT. That’s like seeing a Tesla go for the price of a second-hand bicycle. 🚲🔋
👉 What can YOU do?
Panic? Sure, if you want, but that doesn’t help. 🫠
Diversify? Probably smart. 📊
Buy gold? Maybe, if you’re a fan of shiny things. 🪙✨
Short the market? 🐻 You rebel, you.
But hey, no pressure. It’s only all your hard-earned savings on the line. 🫣💸
So, are we about to witness the Great Crash 2.0, or will the Dow keep defying gravity like a magician’s top hat? 🎩 Stay tuned, folks, because when this market sneezes, the whole world’s economy catches a cold. 🤧🌍
💬 Drop your hot takes below—because let’s face it, speculating about doom is more fun than living it! 😎🔥
ECB impact on IBEX 35 and EURUSDThe European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a definite path towards monetary easing under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, whose dovish (stimulus) policy is designed to address the eurozone's economic slowdown without compromising strategic sustainability objectives. The recent rate cuts, combined with the rollback of the €1.85 trillion debt purchase program, reflect an expansionary stance that seeks to sustain growth, finance sustainable projects and ensure economic stability.
The dovish policy and its connection to the Green Deal and Mercosur
Lagarde's stance, characterized by an accommodative monetary policy, is manifested in a series of decisions aimed at easing financial conditions. The re-orientation of the debt purchase program, initially designed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, is now focused on supporting strategic sectors such as agriculture and the ecological transition, fundamental pillars of the European Green Deal.
In addition, this policy fosters synergies with the Mercosur-EU agreement, which prioritizes agricultural and sustainable trade. The funds redistributed by the ECB reinforce support for the modernization of the agricultural sector, facilitating the transition to more sustainable practices in line with the European Commission's climate objectives.
Impact on EURUSD and financial markets
The ECB's dovish stance puts pressure on the euro against the dollar, maintaining a clear, albeit moderate, bearish path. However, this strategy seeks to create a low interest rate environment that facilitates the financing of green and sustainable projects, consolidating the perception of stability in the Eurozone.
In the short term, the EUR/USD could face fluctuations, but in the long term, the flow of sustainable investments could support a moderate recovery of the euro. The ECB's expansionary policy also encourages appetite for riskier assets, which could translate into a strengthening of equity markets. From a technical perspective, the dollar has tested the lows of 1.04525 in the wake of the news, moving sideways in today's morning session.
The IBEX 35 and the key levels to watch
The IBEX 35, although affected by the volatility associated with the ECB's decisions, could benefit from strategic sectors linked to the Green Deal, such as energy and agriculture. The aid redistributed from the debt purchase program will boost key companies in the index, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
From a technical perspective, the index maintains its consolidation in the range of 11,700-11,850 points, with crucial support at 11,625 points. As long as these levels are not lost, the market could resume its uptrend, in line with the optimism generated by the ECB's expansionary policy and the expectations of a Christmas Rally.
Conclusion: Synergy between monetary policy and sustainability
Lagarde's dovish policy not only addresses the economic slowdown, but also supports the European Union's strategic objectives. The redirection of the debt purchase program towards sustainable and agricultural projects strengthens the ECB's commitment to balanced growth, while fostering economic resilience in an uncertain global environment.
For investors, this scenario offers opportunities in key sectors, supported by an expansive monetary framework and sustainable policies. Both the IBEX 35 and the EUR/USD remain watchful of the evolution of these measures, which could mark the beginning of a phase of a return to sustained and resilient growth in the eurozone.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
XAUUSD, DailyXAUUSD corrected to 2680 after briefly retesting the previous high, indicating a mean reversion before continuing its surge.
If XAUUSD sustains above 2680, the price may continue consolidating before resuming an uptrend.
On the contrary, if XAUUSD closes below 2664, the price may shift to a downtrend.
#CADJPY 4HCADJPY 4-Hour Analysis
The CADJPY pair has broken out above a key trendline resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential shift in momentum to the upside. Additionally, the presence of a buy engulfing candlestick in the breakout area reinforces the bullish sentiment, providing a strong buy opportunity.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Breakout Trendline Resistance and Buy Engulfing Area
Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position following the breakout, confirming with bullish price action signals such as sustained trading above the breakout level or further bullish candlesticks.
Traders should monitor indicators like RSI and MACD for confirmation of continued upward momentum. Risk management is crucial, with stop-loss orders placed below the breakout level and profit targets set at the next resistance zones or key price levels.
Gold (XAU-USD) Buy PlanMarket Context: Gold has reacted from the Monthly IRL with a bullish momentum on the Daily Time Frame, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Target: Monthly ERL.
Entry Strategy:
Targeting Volume Imbalance and Fair Value Gap levels for entry.
Following a Change in State of Delivery.
Exit: ERL will be the final target.
#CHFJPY 4HCHFJPY 4-Hour Analysis
The CHFJPY pair has broken down below a significant trendline support on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential shift in momentum to the downside. This breakdown suggests increased selling pressure and presents a sell opportunity.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Breakdown Trendline Support
Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position after confirming the breakdown with bearish price action signals, such as a retest of the broken trendline as resistance or continuation of lower highs and lows.
Traders should use indicators like RSI or MACD for additional confirmation of bearish momentum. Risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed above the retest level and profit targets set at the next key support zones.
#EURCAD 4HEURCAD 4-Hour Analysis
The EURCAD pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, but the price has broken down below the triangle's trendline support. This breakdown signals potential bearish momentum, making it a viable sell opportunity.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Ascending Triangle and Breakdown Trendline Support
Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position following confirmation of bearish momentum, such as a retest of the broken support acting as resistance or continuation of lower highs.
Traders should look for additional confirmation through bearish candlestick patterns and supporting indicators like RSI or MACD. Proper risk management is crucial, with stop-loss orders placed above the retest level and profit targets set at the next key support zones.
#EURUSD 1HEURUSD 1-Hour Analysis
The EURUSD pair is trading within a downtrend channel on the 1-hour chart and is approaching a key support area near the lower boundary of the channel. This support zone presents a potential buy opportunity as it may act as a reversal point for a short-term bullish move.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Downtrend Channel and Support
Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Consider entering a buy position near the channel's support line, confirming with bullish price action signals such as a bullish engulfing candlestick or a bounce from the support level.
Traders should ensure proper risk management by placing stop-loss orders below the support level to account for potential breakdowns. Profit targets can be set at the midline or upper boundary of the channel for optimal returns.
Can Eth Close above this Bearish (FVG)Market Thesis: Mitigating Bearish Fair Value Gap and Creating a Bullish Opportunity
Overview:
Current Market Context: The price action currently suggests the presence of a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), typically an area of imbalance where price tends to fill or mitigate before continuing its trend. The idea is to push or mitigate this gap, which would then open the opportunity to potentially form a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG), setting up a subsequent buying opportunity.
Key Concepts:
Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG): A Fair Value Gap is typically an area where there’s a void or imbalance in price action due to swift movement (often during an impulsive trend). A bearish FVG forms when there is a large drop in price, creating a gap on the chart that often signals an area for price to retrace and fill before it continues lower or reverses.
Mitigation of Bearish FVG: To "mitigate" a bearish gap means that price revisits the gap zone to fill it, addressing the imbalance. This often results in a temporary shift in price action or can indicate the completion of the retracement, making the market more likely to either reverse or continue in a more balanced fashion.
Bullish FVG: If the market successfully mitigates the bearish FVG and rejects lower prices, the subsequent price action could leave behind a bullish FVG — essentially an area where price gaps higher, creating a new imbalance that traders can look to buy into on a pullback or retracement. A bullish FVG typically signals accumulation and the potential for price to continue upwards in the medium term.
Trade Thesis:
1. Current Setup (Bearish FVG)
The current chart shows a bearish Fair Value Gap, a region where price dropped sharply, creating a void. This gap is often filled before the market decides to continue lower or reverse, providing an opportunity to trade based on the expected retracement.
2. Mitigation Scenario
Objective: Push price into the bearish FVG and allow the gap to be filled. This would typically mean a retracement into the gap zone to close the imbalance created by previous selling pressure.
Key Levels: Focus on the high and low bounds of the FVG. A typical mitigation would look for price to move within or slightly above the gap before showing signs of exhaustion or reversal. Ideally, watch for a rejection or a clear reversal signal (e.g., candlestick patterns, RSI, or MACD divergence) once price reaches the gap.
3. Formation of a Bullish FVG
Once the bearish FVG has been mitigated, the market could move up and form a new bullish FVG (typically a sharp move upwards, leaving behind a void). This will mark a shift in sentiment and create a higher probability of bullish continuation.
The bullish FVG becomes a key level to watch for potential re-entry on dips (buying opportunities). Look for price to return to the FVG area or its immediate vicinity (typically a 50-70% retracement) for an ideal entry point.
4. Risk and Reward Considerations
Risk Management: Given the volatility of filling a FVG, traders should ensure proper risk management. Tight stop losses just below the bearish FVG's mitigation zone (or the lower bound of the previous move) can be used.
Reward Potential: Once the bullish FVG is created, the reward potential is based on a conservative target — typically aiming for the next key resistance level or previous high.
5. Confirmation Signals
Volume Analysis: Watch for increasing volume as price re-enters the bearish FVG zone and then moves away from it. This often indicates that buyers are stepping in after the imbalance is resolved.
Technical Indicators: Confirm the shift with momentum indicators like RSI or MACD. A positive divergence (higher lows on the indicator while price forms lower lows) can signal that buying pressure is building.
Conclusion:
This market setup involves mitigating the current bearish Fair Value Gap and leaving behind a bullish FVG as an opportunity to enter long positions. The thesis hinges on the assumption that the bearish gap will be filled (mitigated) and followed by price action that forms a bullish FVG, creating a buy opportunity on a retracement. Effective risk management and confirmation signals are crucial to executing this trade successfully.
Stay tuned to stay updated with further developments as this scenario unfolds on Trading View.
Gold can hit 2750 before continuing it's bearish reversal trend?Gold prices climbed further, driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and a Wall Street selloff boosting safe-haven demand.
China likely acquired over five tonnes of gold in Nov, according to the PBoC report.
Upcoming central bank decisions in Canada, the EU, Switzerland, and the Fed are expected to heighten gold price volatility as investors await key economic signals.
XAUUSD firmly broke above its sideways range, with higher swings and diverging bullish EMAs indicating its bullish momentum.
If XAUUSD surpasses the previous high at 2720, the price could rise toward its resistance at 2750 before a potential bearish reversal.
Conversely, if XAUUSD retraces, the price may dip to 2680 before continuing its uptrend.
1M liquidity found on 2720 and 1M+ liquidity found on 2750 so move is confirm
gold buy around 2685 target 27131. Buy Zone: 2685 CAPITALCOM:GOLD (entry level)
2. Target: 2713 (27-point profit potential)
3. Stop Loss (Recommended): To manage risk, consider placing a stop loss below 2680 or at a level based on your risk tolerance and market volatility.
4. Risk/Reward Ratio: Calculate based on your stop loss to ensure it's favorable (e.g., at least 1:2).
SPY going down until Bullish Fair Value Gap is Formed above 604Bearish Outlook on SPY
Title: Navigating SPY's Bearish Terrain: An Educational Insight
Introduction: In the world of trading, understanding market dynamics is crucial, much like the speculative nature of meme coins. This idea focuses on SPY's potential downside movement, drawing parallels to the educational approach used in identifying promising meme coins. Let's explore SPY's current market conditions and potential strategies.
Current Market Analysis:
Price Action: SPY closed at $604.68 on December 9, 2024. The market sentiment is currently negative, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.
Technical Indicators: Oscillators suggest a sell due to overbought conditions, while moving averages indicate a buy signal. This mixed outlook highlights the importance of a cautious approach.
Bearish Fair Value Gaps:
Key Levels: Two bearish fair value gaps have formed:
Gap 1: $607.22 to $606.47
Gap 2: $605.04 to $604.79
Strategy: Traders should monitor these gaps closely. If SPY respects these gaps, it could signal further downside movement. A bullish fair value gap forming above the most recent bearish gap could indicate a potential reversal.
Educational Insight:
Story and Narrative: Just as meme coins thrive on compelling stories, SPY's movement is influenced by broader market narratives. Understanding these stories can guide trading decisions.
Community and Sentiment: Engage with trading communities to gauge sentiment and gather insights. A strong community can provide valuable perspectives, much like in the meme coin space.
Option Strategy Recommendations:
Long Put Options: Consider long put options with strike prices aligned with the bearish gaps. This strategy leverages the potential downside while managing risk.
Conclusion: Navigating SPY's bearish terrain requires a blend of technical analysis and market awareness. By drawing parallels to the educational approach used in meme coin analysis, traders can enhance their understanding and strategy formulation. Remember, thorough research and a cautious approach are key to successful trading.
BTCUSDMore upside on the horizon! Mark my words, I'm CLEARLY correct with my analysis & call-outs.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
INJ/USDT: Breakout and Pullback Strategies for Explosive Upside!Injective (INJ) is a decentralized layer-one blockchain tailored for finance, offering a platform for building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications focusing on interoperability and scalability. Demonstrates a strong commitment to advancing decentralized finance through innovative technology and active community engagement. While certain areas, such as roadmap specificity and token distribution transparency, could be enhanced, the overall project exhibits a solid foundation and promising potential for long-term success.
Why I Love Injective (INJ):
Cutting-Edge DeFi Infrastructure: Injective is more than just another blockchain—it's a specialized Layer-1 platform tailored for decentralized finance (DeFi). Its modular design empowers developers to create complex and unique financial applications that are not feasible on other networks.
Seamless Cross-Chain Interoperability: Injective connects with other blockchains, enabling smooth asset transfers and leveraging liquidity across ecosystems. This interoperability makes Injective a key player in the multi-chain future of crypto.
Efficiency and Scalability: The Injective blockchain is built to handle high-performance workloads with lightning-fast transactions and low fees. This efficiency makes it ideal for real-world financial use cases and adoption at scale.
Community-Driven Innovation: The Injective ecosystem thrives on an active and engaged community. Frequent initiatives, open discussions, and collaborations with partner projects reflect a grassroots approach that builds long-term loyalty.
Strong Tokenomics: With mechanisms like token burns, INJ balances supply dynamics to create scarcity while incentivizing ecosystem participants. This approach supports the token's value proposition for long-term holders.
Proven Roadmap Execution: Injective has consistently delivered on its milestones, such as its mainnet launch, AI-enabled finance integrations, and ecosystem expansions. This reliability boosts confidence in its potential for continued growth.
Experienced Leadership: Injective Labs, led by a transparent and experienced team, brings deep technical and financial expertise. Their proactive engagement and clear communication add to the project’s credibility.
Injective (INJ) combines innovation, scalability, and community focus to push the boundaries of what DeFi can achieve, making it a standout in the crypto space.
1. Instrument Identification
Instrument: INJ/USDT (Injective Protocol / TetherUS).
Time Frame: Daily chart (1D).
2. Trend Analysis
Current Trend:
Bullish Structure: After a significant downtrend with a Break of Structure (BoS) to the downside earlier in the year, the trend shifted bullish with a Change of Character (ChoCh) around 23.56.
Recent Pullback: The price has pulled back slightly after a strong rally, aligning with a bullish retracement phase.
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL): Evident from the continuation of bullish impulses and shallow pullbacks.
3. Key Levels
Premium and Discount Zones:
Premium Zone:
Above equilibrium (35.2) and near -0.272 extension (40.40). These areas are likely to attract sell-side liquidity.
Discount Zone:
Below equilibrium (25.79), especially near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (23.56), an optimal level for buying opportunities.
Resistance Levels:
Key Resistance:
Previous Major High (PMH) at 46.49, likely to act as a sell-side liquidity target.
Fibonacci extension at 40.40 aligns with a logical TP area for bullish momentum.
Support Levels:
Equilibrium: Around 25.79, serving as a strong support zone.
Demand Zone: Between 23.56 (0.618 Fib level) and 25.79, marked by significant order flow and institutional activity.
Weak Low (LL): At 14.33, a level to monitor if the bullish structure invalidates (low probability).
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-Side Liquidity: Above 40.40 and near 46.49, where liquidity is resting from prior highs.
Sell-Side Liquidity: Below the recent pullback lows near 28.02 and further at the equilibrium zone.
4. Actionable Recommendation
Recommendation: Buy on Pullbacks
Justification:
The market structure is bullish, with institutional order flow favoring higher prices.
The pullback to equilibrium (25.79) and the 0.618 level (23.56) provides a high-probability buy zone.
Liquidity is resting above the recent swing highs, indicating a continuation toward premium zones.
Entry Plan:
Wait for price retracement to 25.79–23.56 range (discount zone).
Confirm entry on a lower timeframe (4H) with bullish rejection or a Break of Structure to the upside.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 35.2 (Equilibrium of Premium Zone).
TP2: 40.40 (-0.272 Fibonacci Extension).
TP3: 46.49 (PMH and key liquidity target).
Stop Loss (SL):
Below 23.56 for a conservative placement.
Breakout Play (Alternative):
If price breaks above 35.2 with strong momentum, consider a breakout buy targeting 40.40 with stops below the breakout candle.
Bitcoin Price/Time map updateWelcome back traders!
Here we have a map of the price pace of Bitcoin that have shown a very strong bull cycle so far.
Ideally, the last all time high of this cycle should be reached around June/September 2025 when the price will be between 120K and 150K.
See you in the next crypto catch up.
Math
UNG: Why I Chose UNG for Tomorrow’s Trading - Dec. 13, 2024After reviewing today’s market setup, I decided to focus on UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) for tomorrow’s trading. Here’s a breakdown of my thought process and key observations:
Key Reasons for Choosing UNG:
1. Clear Technical Levels:
* $15.00 is a significant level of interest with strong bullish positioning reflected in options data (highest positive GEX level). A breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend.
* $14.50 serves as a critical support level, with heavy Put interest (-66.77% GEX). A breakdown below this could lead to bearish momentum.
*
2. Options Sentiment:
* Calls dominate with a 133.7% GEX skew, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the options market. This provides an opportunity for both momentum trades to the upside or a contrarian approach if the level fails.
*
3. Volatility Setup:
* With an IVR of 39.8 and IVx average at 69.6, the stock presents a good balance of volatility for active trading without being overly erratic. This makes it an attractive candidate for controlled setups.
*
4. Risk/Reward Profile:
* The proximity to key levels ($15.00 resistance and $14.50 support) creates a manageable risk/reward ratio. I can set tight stop-losses while targeting the next significant GEX levels.
*
5. Sector Opportunity:
* Natural gas has been moving with increased volume and volatility recently. This sectoral activity often translates to heightened trading opportunities.
Questions for Fellow Traders:
* What’s your opinion on UNG for tomorrow?
* Do you see the bullish momentum continuing, or do you think there’s a higher likelihood of a breakdown below $14.50?
* Are there any fundamental or macroeconomic factors I might be overlooking that could impact natural gas tomorrow?
Let me know your thoughts! Trading is always better when we share ideas and refine our setups together. 😊
seeing the daily range before it happens with ict concepts on esprice is finding support in a series of candles forming a h4 breaker on the left side, we can see it forms a manipulation leg lower at the end of the afternoon session closing below the breaker bodies, but then gapping up on new day open. looking up, we can see a h1 imbalance that was never touched, and a series of relative equal highs. fridays are often bullish, and with no news we dont expect a huge move. so looking for price to go up with the 2am gbp gdp and than start is judas swing lower at 3am trapping everyone long. then since there is nothing going on, it can chop around for a while only to go up again and dump at 930 even lower. at this point, its free to spend the rest of the day in a high resistance run up to the equal highs and large imbalance around 6088. using a standard deviation of 3 off the h1 cisd takes you above afternoon highs, and to the top of a series of candle bodies forming rejection block, which could provide further retracement. you could long the asia high which is also a breaker, if it manipulates down there at 930am with your stop at the new day gap low targetting 6088
GBPJPY BUYS TO 194.600?Trading Plan for GBP
BASELINE 🎯
Current short term sentiment bias and upcoming risk events (previous # & consensus expectations) that can impact said sentiment
Current Short-Term Sentiment Bias :
- The British pound is trading around $1.276, near a one-month high, driven by expectations of a cautious BoE.
- Investors are focused on upcoming UK economic data, particularly GDP and manufacturing production for October, which are expected to show modest growth.
Upcoming Risk Events :
- GDP (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.1%, Previous -0.1%
- GDP (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 1.6%, Previous 1.0%
- Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.8%
- Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.3%, Previous -0.5%
- Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.0%
- Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.9%, Previous -0.7%
- Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.1%
SURPRISE ⚡
What outcome of the risk event will surprise the markets based on the baseline
Positive Data Surprise :
- Outcome: If the data beats expectations across the board, it will likely reinforce market expectations of no rate cuts next week.
- Market Reaction: Continued pound strength.
- Trade Pair: GBP/JPY - The yield spread between UK and Japan bonds suggests potential upside for this pair.
Negative Data Surprise :
- Outcome: If the data misses expectations, the pound could weaken as investors speculate on a more dovish BoE outlook.
- Market Reaction: Pound weakness.
- Trade Pair: GBP/NZD - The yield spread between UK and New Zealand bonds favors a downside move in this pair.
BIGGER PICTURE 🌐
Does this outcome changes the larger macro-fundamental bias
Macro-Fundamental Bias:
- Current Expectation: The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.75% at its next meeting on December 19.
- Future Outlook: Governor Andrew Bailey has hinted at gradual rate cuts starting in 2025, with markets pricing in three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of next year.
- Implications: A positive data surprise would support the current expectation of no immediate rate cuts, while a negative surprise could lead to speculation about a more dovish stance from the BoE.
GEX Analysis for QQQ-Dec. 13,2024Current Price: $529.39
IVR: 5.7
IVx Average: 15.5
Options Sentiment: Neutral-to-bearish with 18.4% in Puts.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
$531.00: 2nd CALL Wall (Key resistance level).
$533.00: 3rd CALL Wall and potential breakout target.
$534.00: Extended resistance zone (requires strong volume for continuation).
Support:
$528.00: HVL (1DTE Level and key support for the day).
$526.00: Highest Negative NETGEX / PUT Wall (Important bearish target).
$525.00: 2nd PUT Wall, critical support zone.
Sentiment & Projection:
QQQ is currently facing resistance near $531.00. A breakout above this level could drive prices toward $533.00.
If the price fails to hold $528.00, bearish momentum might test $526.00 and $525.00.
Trading Strategies:
Bullish:
Entry Above: $531.50 (Confirmation of breakout).
Target: $533.00, $534.00.
Stop Loss: $530.00.
Bearish:
Entry Below: $528.00.
Target: $526.00, $525.00.
Stop Loss: $529.50.
Reminder:
Always verify IVR and IVx for live updates before entering trades. Adjust your strategy to account for the latest market conditions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always perform your own research before trading.