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Bearflags

2 bearish targets - Falling wedge breakout or retest lows first?Good day Traders On the lower time frames we seem to be printing another bear flag and potentially a continuation head and shoulders (not as common as the reversal pattern but still happens). This is playing out within a larger falling wedge which is bullish, however, we have 2 bearish scenarios depending on which target we reach when the 2 bearish patterns play out and this will decide if that is in fact a falling wedge (looks a bit stretched imo but might work since we have bullish divergence of the daily MFI but it all depends on our weekly SMA200 support, which I suspect we might not even reach considering the amount of buy orders sitting around that region. The h&s has a breakdown target of $3300 - $3350 which is also more than a 168.2/178.6 fib extension of the wave down from the head and this will come close to our weekly SMA200 which is currently sitting around $3300. This would also coincide with the larger falling wedge support which means the bullish case would still be in play. The bear flag, however, has a breakdown target $3200 - $3100 based on the height of the flagpole. This also coincides with a 168.2/178.6 fib extension of the drop from the flag pole after we were only able to manage a 38.2 fib retracement so the 168.2 fib extension is quite feasible. If we break below the target of the h&s, we also breakdown below the support of the falling wedge as well as our weekly SMA200 so things could turn very bearish if we have a daily close below $3200 as well as our weekly SMA200 support. If we do drop below our weekly SMA200 support and go on to retest the December lows, then we could either have a strong bounce back above our weekly SMA200 resistance for a strong move to the upside, alternatively, we might drop straight past our December low, in which case I'm not even sure that our $3k support would hold. A bullish break from the falling wedge could has an upside target of $4000/$4200 at this stage, but better to cross that bridge once we get there and have a bigger picture of all this. Good luck and happy trading! Previous post:
Short
by Corn_Reaper
US 30: Valentine's Day Massacre?All the good news is out. Prices pierced and fell back to TL. Price at 0.62 Fibo now. Sand P also at Fibo just a hair above 2700. Bear flag flying at tip of pennant. Can it get higher? Of course! 'Pumptards' are capable of infinitely irrational behavior. But will it? That is the question, to be or not to be more! IMO not to be more. Just an idea; the .62 Fibo retrace on this flag is down at 23K for Dow, that's 2K under current price. Would be a pretty penny if it sells to Fibo. Lotta folks calling for a 'crash' but I reckon an 'M' correction is more likely, the 'C' leg on that would be pretty steep, down at 1.62 Fibo brings 30 under 20K. Notice the expanding 'megaphone' corrective structure- ominous, wide open to lower prices. Expect a double bottom with a steeper drop on the secondary correction after the 'Christmas Crash.' Has been trending up for 40 days, as of Groundhog day on Feb 02 (Candlemas!). Timeframe for next leg on correction, based on comps from 1987, 2001 selloffs, is about 80 days from bottom-to-bottom: which puts the next low in late March/early April. Then expect super bully in late April into May before a June swoon. Just guessing. As always, this isn't even remotely anything like advice, just a crackpot harebrained idea. Trade at your own risk and consult a certified investment advisor please!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
14
Crypto weather 2019: Brief respite before the torrential pain!Good day Traders, Bitcoin has a number of bullish signals for the short term, however, we are probably still printing a large bear flag, consolidating before 1 last bounce and then we resume the downtrend. Within the flag, we have a diamond bottom pattern playing out, with added resistance coming from our daily SMA50, and added support coming from the weekly SMA200, as well as the flag (uptrend support from our 2018). A diamond can break in both directions, however for the short term, the weekly SMA200 will be much stronger support than the daily SMA50 acting as resistance. The price should be squeezed between daily SMA50 and flag/diamond support, before we break to the upside from the diamond apex above the daily SMA50, before we go on to test our daily SMA100. We also have regular bullish divergence on the daily MFI after that large drop to our flag support yesterday and the $3400 support has been holding strong, with a lot of buying pressure beneath $3400. We could potentially have a flash crash to our $3300-$3330 support, but I doubt that we will drop below our weekly SMA200. If we do drop below $3370, this would revise our flag support to a more gradual angle and our flag resistance would probably be limited to around $4200. We have also now had a 78.6 fib retracement after the bounce from our 2018 low to our recent high of $4236, which tells me that the downtrend is still strong, so when we do bounce from these levels as we break out from the diamond apex, I believe our upside will be limited to a 127.2 - 138.2 fib extension target of between $4540 - $4690. On log scale, this $4540 - $4690 area of resistance is also where we will find major downtrend resistance from our ATH. Although it doesn't seem to matter if you use log or linear because no matter how you look at it, log or linear, we have trend line resistance. On log, this is from our ATH, and with linear, this is from our 24 July swing high. This is also where we will be retesting our daily SMA100 so expecting strong resistance. This is where I believe we will drop back to flag support and break to the downside with a large downside target based on the height of the flag pole. When we had our drop from $5658 to our flag support and 2018 low, we then only had a 38.2 fib retracement on the bounce, which tells me that the trend is still very much to the downside, considering that we had no expected v-shaped bounce, i.e none of the expected buying pressure, no capitulation candle on the drop, and volume has been dropping gradually ever since, setting up for the next major drop. We also had a downward cross on the weekly stochrsi. I'm expecting a 1.382-1.414 fib extension target for the drop from $5658, to somewhere between $2150 - $2070, which lines up nicely with the target of the larger bear flag when it breaks down (pole height from $6544 to our 2018 low). Looking at the fib extension target for the flag pole, once we reach our flag resistance between $4540 - $4690, that will be a 38.2 fib retracement after our main drop from $6544. When we drop from there, we will be resuming the general downtrend and I have a final 161.8 fib extension target of $1007. This means that when we reach the lower $2ks, I suspect that we will have a strong bounce to potentially retest the flag as resistance, as the herd starts to fomo when they begin calling the bottom, however this will be a bull trap, and we will head back to retest our lower $2k support, dropping to the 138.2 fib extension support of the larger move, around $1800. This part of the drop is significant, because this will be a break of market structure, as we break major uptrend support, starting from our 2013 swing low. This will induce panic when we can't get back above this support, and this is where I believe that our true capitulation event will take place, as we crash below $1k, and the initial uptrend support from the start of our bull cycle in 2015, to major horizontal support close to $800. This will be considered the "despair" phase of the market bubble and will be the final drop before the bears eventually throw in the towel and we bounce back above that initial uptrend as the price finally reverts back to the mean, before consolidating and beginning a new market cycle. $1007 is the 161.8 fib extension target of the larger move and fits in with Tyler Jenk's Hyperwave theory quite well. Good luck and happy trading! Diamond Bottom / Flag: Previous post:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
1
Picture perfect bear flag on BTC - Short term target 3450Good morning everyone, BTC forming a beautiful bear flag within the shown range. Just while I was writing this, it attempted another break out to the upside, which was however brutally sold off around 3675, indicating the high selling pressure. Unless some unexpected move happens, I see it testing at 3450 in the very short term. The thing we have to keep in mind here is, that this bear flag will leave BTC breaking through the major support at 3560, which has been holding it for the past day. If that happens, we're probably gonna see a lot of stops coming to action, which could very well send us down to last years lows. Stay tuned and thanks for your like!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RauldaCool
XLM breakout!Hello! XLMUSD has been showing some bullish signs after finding support in between the 50-60 % retrace from the miniature bull flag whilst squeezing on the monthly moving average with the drawn trend line signaling a breakout if we have a rally that breaches and closes with a few lines above the MA. In the case of a breakout we can expect a surge upwards 0.14 level marked with the dotted line before a retest of validity on MA monthly current area, which also is the top of the flag pole. After the retest a surge towards 0.18 can be expected forming a finished BEAR flag in the bigger picture signaling a down move. If the breakout fails (small bear flag completion) at the break of the the trend line expect a move to the 0.10 (if worse 0.05) level forming a double bottom (if 0.05 its a stop loss hunt for larger orders) where most likely a lot of buy orders will be sitting lurking for an opportunity to be filled. if you like my short summary make sure to like this analysis as i will try to make more of these and update them regularly!
BITFINEX:XLMUSDLong
by C2222222222
Potential Bear Flag Could Soon Be Ready To Break BTCUSD 3 DayI think that this bear flag on both the 3 day chart and the weekly are at the point where a break could happen anytime. I'm leaning much more towards the downside as we are still in a bear market until proven otherwise and the probability of a descending triangle breaking downwards is much more like than a bullish move upwards. You never know until you get the confirmation of the triangle being broken! Be safe and always practice proper bankroll management regardless of your trading approach.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by b0mber7341
BITCOIN still trending down! Short term day traders should observe the rectangle range we've been trading in since the 24th, after the sudden drop. I have drawn the bear flag that has setup this pattern. Now, after 3 touches on bottom and 2 on top, it seems we have a partial rise. That is good news for the bears as this typically indicates a breakout of the pattern is impending. As part of the bear flag, this would give us a Target of 3435, which correlates with the support from December 18th. My previous charts have shown what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. At this point at 3750, we are very close to the bottom valley of the right shoulder I have drawn. (see pic below). So if the bear flag is the dominant pattern here (and since we are still in the bear market, that would be true), this would end up invalidating the Inverse Head and Shoulders. However, to give the Bulls some hope, this could still be a part of the Elliott Wave correction ABC waves from another chart I made (pic below). Albeit, if the price does drop to the 3434 level, that is quite a bit deeper correction than originally estimated, but still altogether possible, as long as it doesn't completely retrace to the original low of 3135. In summary, there are 3 possibilites: 1) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then continue trending downward from there. 2) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then the Elliott Wave retrace ends, and we begin Wave 3 bull impulse upward 3) We don't breakout of the bear flag, the retrace and the Higher Low is already printed, and we complete the Inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a future breakout upward. I'd give a 60% chance of option 1 at this point. 20% for option 2 and 20% for option 3. Be careful! See previous analyses and pics below. Have a Great Day!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bluemt95