Bitcoin is in BEAR control - Probably see $5500 Low!!Hi Beautiful peopleeee!!
Looking at the Daily Bitcoin chart, you can see a big bear with us here. I would say the army bears!. My reasons are:
1. BTC did break out from descending triangle and now become a big descending channel. Someone may think BTC is building a Falling wadge, but I do not think so because both MACD and RSI is building descending channel as well which has no positive divergence with it yet.
2. BTC has stayed below 21 weekly EMA, 21 Daily EMA and 200 Daily EMA for almost 3 weeks and it did test and got rejection from those 3 EMA. This shows BTC is in the bear control zone.
3. After BTC came down from $10000, it is building a possible bear flag.
From my reasons, I think it is a opportunity for all of beautiful people here to go Short. This action need to be confirmed by breaking previous low $7711 and then my idea will fit in. The first target would be at Fibonacci retracement 0.618 around $7200 and my second target would be at $5500 because it is Fibonacci retracement 0.786 and it also related to support line of descending channel, support uptrend line from low $3000 as well as the target of bear flag.
However, we cannot control the market so we should let the market come to us. Therefore, if Bitcoin goes up and stay above 200 daily EMA, I will change my mind and cancel my idea of bearish view.
***** THIS INFORMATION IS MY IDEA AND IS NOT RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL. IT IS TO BE USED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. ******
Bearflags
AUDCHF 1D BEAR FLAG SHORT TRADEBear Flags are a form of Ranges which are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Bear Flags are a bearish consolidation chart patterns that can breakout in the short direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
EOSUSDT - INDICATORS AND CONFLUENCESLets see how confluence works:
EOSUSDT trend is bearish on D and 12H. On 4H we are having some kind of bounce or consolidation bear flag. We know this channel is going to broke downwards, at least the market in general push bulls and invalidate TA. If nothing extraordinary happens, this is going to be a continuation pattern.
I see two possibilities:
1.- Channel breaks now, after testing 0.382. Bulls can't break 21EMA and PA goes fast to green area (S/R + FIBONACCI LEVEL). Over there, is where we want to close our short trade.
2.- PA test higher level of the channel and fibo, where meets 144EMA (12H chart, accurate in this case), previous Support level with high VOLUME, and roof of bear flag. Wow!, this is beautiful. This is where i've rather entering a short position and take profits on green rectangle.
Both short trades are possible, trade 2 is TAwise speaking: GORGEUS. Lets see what happens.
$BTC >> Examining the bearish scenario $6.8k target levelHi everyone,
Welcome to another update on Bitcoin where today we examine the bearish scenario.
The bearish scenario I am seeing has a $6,800 level target, with the following confluences:
1- Target of weekly bear flag
2- 78.6% fib retrace from ATH to bearmarket low
3- 50 Weekly Moving average
4- Historical (2 year) S/R line with significant VPVR
Best way to trade this is to wait for a breakdown from the bear flag formation.
The 50 Week moving average is a VERY key level - Bitcoin must NOT break it. Retesting it with a sharp strong bounce/bull rally makes a lot of sense though given the technicals of this scenario.
I would give this bearish scenario a 40-45% probability. I remain bullish overall unless the Weekly EMA ribbon is broken or the bear flag is broken to the downside.
Cheers,
Leb Crypto
EURGBP SA L O H A
-
Have been watching this for about a week now and momentum has finally picked up.
Currently in a tight bear flag heading downward. Impulse early morning while Hawaii traders were asleep, did not set an entry order but okay as the market always corrects. This is a nice potential entry I am eyeing out at the break of the structure
or
at the top for a double top, scoop within the 15m/1hr time frame. Bears are kicking in so not looking for any longs for a while.
Headed to bed now, will set an entry order and see what happens. Have a great night and may you have a profitable week! Mahalo.
What do you guys see?
NZDCAD ShortA L O H A
Hey Everyone, looking to short NZDCAD in the next couple hours after the new market day is confirmed and candles closed.
D - At a key area at the second touch of a descending channel with an overall bear market.
4 HR - bearish engulfing at top of structure; descending within a descending; engulfing candle which is a beautiful sign this could be an opportunity to get in short for a long ride down, at least to the recent low near .83617; also a scoop pattern here (double touch at top of channel
1 HR - currently in a correction after the break down out of the ascending channel. Impulsed out now waiting for a cleaner spot to enter. Few option to getting in is a hover at the top of 15m second touch bear flag or a possible entry at bottom, outside of structure for a Reduced risk entry.
Price can go early or consolidate for a while so have placed on alert at the top of second touch on the 15m and will monitor if there is a hover and breakdown to down side.
Potential for a 10% move on this if able to hold to the down.
Been backtesting to keep my mind at ease with all this waiting. Will wait and stay out of the market until new market day is open (11am HST) and a little more hover correction before placing an entry.
SPX Intraday Bear Flag: In CD Leg of Bullish ButterflySee my related post on SPY. It's a Butterfly pattern. Current price is retesting the breakdown TL. I am short this index at 2900.
The wedge grows narrow, rapidly tightening. Break imminent IMO. Won't be a good time to buy long until Butterfly completes.
Expected termination of CD Leg around 2720-2740, by Monday 28 October. Go long after price break completes for best R/R.
Final Bull wave should carry SPX above 3100-3150 at the 1.618 Fibo extension. It will be a Fifth Primary of the Fifth supercycle.
Not trading advice; just another wild idea; trade at your own rick! GLTA!
Can Ripple Hold Out Against the Bears?In my previous analysis, I was bullish; however, I did state in a BTC analysis, that if BTC were to fall in price, the rest of the market would follow and the rest of the market followed BTC's drop in price.
The Chart:
It appears like XRP is currently in a bear flag, as the highest point of volume is in the respective drop. However, there is support on the green trendline which was once previously resistance. The green support of the rectangle is given by the weekly hammer, however, it is possible that the hammer cannot hold this price point. The two red rectangles are resistance zones with historically more trendless action. There are two price objectives I want to derive, the first on is that of the rising channel which is .2386 and the second one is if the entire pattern acts as a bear flag (price objective of .1921). If I was looking for this flag to fail, it would need to cross .26.
The Weekly Hammer:
Previous Analysis:
Another Descending Triangle for Ethereum.Or maybe a bear flag / bull flag.
Keep in mind that looking for bull patterns in a short term bearish trend with the backing of the federal reserve is not an easy task.
Also, in one of my previous posts I spoke about the CME futures that have launched on Ethereum that are similar to the ones launched in late 2017 for Bitcoin, and we all seen what happened there.
Time will tell per usual
EURCHF Potential DowntrendFrom the analysis above, it shows a potential downtrend.
In the D1 timeframe, the market is in a descending channel.
The figure above in 1H timeframe, it has shown an impulsive move after it reverses when it touches the D1 Descending channel and it has formed a bear flag (price action within the context of a downtrend).
The TP point can be at the beginning of the descending channel.
Any comments are welcomed. Let me know your opinion.
Thank you.
SPX in ABC Correction: In 'B' Wave Bear FlagSee related post in the 15 min chart for bear flag; here see it really clearly in 1-hr; it is possible the Gap from Tues could fill before heading lower; or just break down from tip of wedge. Friday should give us a pretty clear signal. Entered some shorts; add if it bounces higher; this is a Butterfly pattern CD leg; it is taking the form of an ABC correction. Target is Index 2740 +/- 20 pips. C is usually a bit longer than A and extends somewhat, but should be at least as long; hence, ~140 - 180 pips from 2900 (target 2720-2760).
The Bull rally after correction could carry index to new ATH above 3100-3150 by EOY at the 1.618 Fib extension!
Trade at your own risk! This is not advice; just an idea; GLTA!
Clown World BTC Bear Flag.. means up?Looks like it's forming a typical bearflag, or pennant rather. And we all know those usually break down after a while, but this is Clown World *Honk Honk*. So your best bet is usually bet the opposite of what it looks like, and the opposite of what the market is thinking.
ETH - Where will it be heading next ?- In my previous analysis, I did mention that ETH's price would not be able pass through 185 , the selling had just taken a pause for now
- Now there is an uprising trend channel but the buying isnt strong enough hence the worst case scenario is that it is a pending bear flag waiting for breaking down as bear flags are continuation pattern
- As highlighted in the chart, the critical zone ETH should not break in order to see light at the end of the tunnel, this area is where ETH really broke out from the whole year of bear trend. this area will be tested heavily.
- For the time being, I am leaning towards to bear side until I see buyers coming back, if not we see even more downside in the middle term.
EURGBP ShortAfter a corrective period for the last few weeks, price stayed within the descending channel in a ascending pattern. Typical "Pattern within a Pattern" which is an edge we use.
Price moved off key area at top of a corrective structure.
Currently in a tight bear flag correction, eyeing out for a continuation after the first impulse. Hourly and 4HR has solid bearish close.
First inflection area is 3%, 30 pip stop loss with SL being aloe the correction area. The drawn in lines are potential forecasted ways that price can react off the trend line.
Staying patient with a set entry and moving along. What do you guys think?
Have a great rest of the week and productive weekend traders! Aloha
Ethereum Bearish or Bullish?During the last analysis, we accurately obtained the price objective of the falling wedge, which was 220, it took a lot of time for the move to develop, and once the price objective was hit, there was a pretty immediate drop to 155. It was mentioned in my most recent BTC analysis that the descending triangle was most likely to break out within days, and that if it broke to the downside, then it would bring the entire crypto market down. Well, the entire crypto market did shed approximately 40 billion dollars within hours. I did spot the head and shoulder at the price objective, however, I did not make a post on it, so I apologize for that. But here is my most current ETHUSD analysis.
The Chart:
The red rectangles are areas of resistance and the green rectangles are areas of support. In light blue, there is a descending broadening wedge which tend to favor a more bullish outcome. However, volume isn't the best to support that argument and in addition, there are only two touches for the top trendline. It can be said that the bottom trendline has been acting as support, so if there are any drops, the bottom of the trendline has been a good region to buy. After the most recent drop, price appears to be in a very tight rising channel, since the highest volume occurred on the drop and volume has been significantly less afterwards, this is most likely a bear flag. The price objective of this bear flag is approximately 136 which is noted by the magenta horizontal line. Another thing to note is that there is a rising trendline on the RSI, which has been maintained since the drop.
Price Action:
There are several price actions to look for the most bullish is if price would pop to the upper region of the channel and hug the top trendline of it, consolidating there before breaking to the upside possibly to consolidate around the top trendline of the broadening wedge. The most bearish would be if price has already begun to weaken and that 185 was the highest price point in the bear flag, this can be identified if price tries several attempts to break into the resistance level or if it distributes in that area. Another bearish scenario is if price increases to the resistance region and distributes there before dropping.
Previous analysis:
ETHBTC Analysis:
BTC Analysis:
EURGBP - BEAR FLAG - SELLHello Traders,
The EURGBP is trading between a bear flag and has now been rejected from resistance.
The overall momentum is bearish.
We can now expect a move towards the next support zone at 0.8750.
Trade with the trend.
It appears there could be some more strength going back into the GBP.
Check out or other post on the GBPJPY below.
Any thoughts please comment,
Potential bear flag forming on Gold.Gold is currently forming what appears to be a bear flag formation on the daily. My other TradingView post on Gold was high-lighting a potential broadening top formation, but that has since been invalidated. On the daily chart, we can see there has been several attempts by Gold to push higher, but each attempt has been sold down resulting in some rather ugly daily wicks just under the 20 day moving average in Pink. I am now seeing a bear flag forming with a measured move to the 1430-1440 prior resistance zone which should now act as new support.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
USDCAD 1D BEARISH FLAGBEARISH FLAG - is a form of the range trade chart patterns.
Price has been falling in a bearish move.
Price now takes a break with a bullish retracement.
Breakout of the bottom of the bear flag is a bearish continuation move.
Triangles, Descending Triangles, Ascending Triangle and Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Triangles and ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Ascending and descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart ).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility ) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the volume settings on the chart – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.