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BTCUSD: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 BreakdownBitcoin 2012: Descending triangle breakdown to measured target of -20%. Price consolidated in a tight range between $4.21 to $5.30 after disbelief rally. 7 years later, Bitcoin 2019: Descending triangle with measured breakdown target of -32%. Repeating 2012 suggests a consolidation between $6,415 to $9,420 for 1 year. The time frames are very different, however the emphasis here is on a BTCUSD descending triangle at the top of a disbelief rally from the bottom of the bear market after a 250% (3.5x) rise. The measured move back then was -20% that Bitcoin achieved. The -32% breakdown target after a 340% (4.4x) doesn't seem unreasonable. Credit to KaliCrypto for the inspiration: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
BNC:BLXShort
by dragononcrypto
BTCUSD: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle BreakdownIn 2018 there was an accuracy within 0.25% ($16) of the measured breakdown of the descending triangle . The calculation equaled $3,145 (-48.2%) with the low arriving at $3,129. Based on the 2019 Daily descending triangle , the measured move of -32% takes the price to $6,410, give or take $16. If this Daily triangle is breached to the upside I will calculate the Weekly descending triangle , that has a reduced measured move.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dragononcrypto
12
BITCOIN - So, where to from here? Fundamentalist macro view!Fundamentalist macro view In a macro sense, we believe that Bitcoin will be able to push for a new high as the latest price action is indicating a symmetrical triangle. This signal accumulation is still occurring. Moreover, BTC broke the $10k level, increasing its chances to visit $12.3k - $13.9k region. In general, any downside price action from the current price is more likely to be seen as a healthy retracement, not a reversal in trend. Another bullish indicator that historically finalized the end of past bear markets, is the famous Golden Cross moving average indicator that is currently occurring on the daily chart. Simply put, the golden cross is a bullish technical indicator in which a short-term Moving Averages (MAs) crosses above a long-term MAs. In higher time-frames, it is often utilized to determine whether a macro trend has shifted. This an event that has not happened since 2015, when BTCs price was $300. As we all know, the price of $BTC skyrocketed (roughly 66x to 20k) the last time a golden cross happened on the daily chart. It is crucial to understand that these indicators serve as confirmation of possible trend changes and should be utilized in conjunction with other technical and fundamental market indicators that exist in the space before executing any trades. Nonetheless, the golden cross bolsters the current bullish sentiment in the market. Despite there having been much more profitable weeks in the history of crypto, as of the time of writing, bitcoin is in a holding pattern at stuck in range $9k - 11k. While it may seem easy to conclude that the leveling off in volume signals a rapidly declining interest in cryptos flagship digital asset, we beg to differ. At the height of the bull market late in 2017, 24 hour trading volume for BTC peaked at the reduced levels were seeing now after a monstrous increase in trading took daily totals well over the $23 billion mark. Many of us vividly remember the parabolic runs BTC was prone to in the past. However, this jump, though small-by-comparison, was more meaningful than it was valuable precisely because of its timing deep into the worst bear market in crypto history. The historic rise in volume and bitcoins subsequent rally confused many an observer not least because there didnt seem to be a clear narrative behind the move. To find likely answers, one neednt far away. We made a case for our theory that institutional accumulation was not only a thing - but has progressed far beyond what most realize. Diar.co recently went live with hard-data backing up claims that institutional products and trading volume have been steadily growing behind the scenes of a seemingly stagnant crypto market. Media coverage from both crypto and mainstream platforms of the latest BTC price surge has also culled interest from retail investors who have mostly sat out the nearly 1.5 - year bear market. Google searches for bitcoin reached their highest levels since the glory days of 2017 and the subsequent relief rally of spring 2018. Far from offering a conclusion about the direction of bitcoin in the next few days, all of these indicators taken together form a meta-level view that motivates us to take advantage of the opportunities the crypto market seems prepared to offer us. ts beginning to look like we might be able to call the $12-13k range home, but lets not jump to conclusions, lest we become homeless. But if you zoom out and take a wide-lens view, there is lots to be excited about. Bitcoin is beating yet another bear market that many naysayers predicted would put an end to the currency experiment started a decade ago by Satoshi Nakamoto. As written by Friedrich Nietzsche well before bitcoins time, - That which does not kill us, makes us stronger! -. With each passing day, bitcoins name recognition deepens and a new generation of tech-literate youth grows of age to embrace the digital currency. The curious openness expressed toward bitcoin by younger generations bodes well for cryptos potential to reach a mainstream adoption phase in the coming years. It may not happen tomorrow, but bitcoin and the rest of crypto can definitely do with a head start to prepare for the spotlight down the road. As the technology matures along with the audience that will eventually embrace it, we might be headed for the perfect storm - a confluence of circumstances that will prove that digital assets really are a multi-trillion dollar asset class. One clear example of the maturation of blockchain technology is the Bitcoin networks near ATH daily transaction levels combined with near ATL transaction fee levels. While it may not seem like anything is happening with BTC from a development standpoint, that couldnt be further from the truth as revealed by blockchain analysis of bitcoin TXs. When the late 2017 bull market engaged its thrusters, bitcoin famously left users with unbelievably long wait times and fees due to record levels of network congestion. It was an event that shook blockchain ecosystem investors as they realized that price was running far ahead of fundamentals. The extended bear market has cooled prices off considerably (to say the least), giving fundamentals like those just mentioned time to catch up and set the stage for the next bull market. Additionally, the clear signs of accumulation currently in play mean that bitcoin is not only surviving, but its thriving. Given a little more time and an injection of financialization from parties like Bakkt, Fidelity, we believe that now is the moment for taking a serious look at a restful BTC before it revs up again. Billion Dollar Companies Utilizing Blockchain. Forbes published a list of companies that are implementing blockchain technology with minimum revenues or a valuation of $1 billion dollars. Amongst the list, there are multiple traditional large corporations in the technology, finance, and supply chain industries such as Amazon, BNP Paribas, and Foxconn. Some notable blockchain / crypto, specific that made the list include Coinbase, BitFury, and Ripple. A Fifth of Institutional Players are Invested in Crypto. You may have noticed that Fidelity Investments loves cryptocurrency. With over $2.46 trillion in assets under their care, its reasonable to say that Fidelity knows a thing or two about where and when to be invested. Despite the bear market, Fidelity went ahead with crypto trading and custody products while executives at the company repeatedly went on the record to profess their love for the emerging digital asset class. Recently, Fidelity published the results of a comprehensive survey regarding the amount of exposure to held by institutional investors. Their report suggests that at least 22% of institutional buyers have at least some exposure to crypto currencies, like bitcoin, and that the next five years will see a huge influx of additional investment by major financial players. Apart from technical analysis perspectives, there are several bullish fundamental factors worth considering which are likely fueling the current surge. Fidelity Investment is Going Live With Crypto Trading Platform. Previously, Fidelity executives indicated that the platform was not only ready but that they were eager to set the platform loose upon a select network of loyal accounts. Major retailers like Starbucks, Whole Foods, Nordstrom, and Home Depot are now accepting cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH using a payment processor called - Flexa -. The partnership marks a watershed moment for cryptocurrency as a payment method and could well represent a turning point in the industry. With Bakkt and Fidelity Investments inching closer every day to launching their game-changing products while people around the world begin to give crypto a second look, the sky is truly the limit - as clichè as that may seem. Bitcoins growing price reflects its maturation as both a network and a currency while its increasingly going mainstream in the finance world. So, where to from here? We believe that $9300 - 9k is an essential pivotal support and should hold in the near-term as price consolidates. If we break below the $9k level, expect a continued downside that could sweep the low $8500 -7500, and potentially lower. The point is, if bitcoin is going to continue its current run, buyers will need to start showing up in these higher reaches. Without that, price will consolidate here awhile before deviating from the trend weve enjoyed for the last few weeks. The why of that scenario rests with a significant development in Bitcoin FA (fundamental analysis) - the VanEck SolidX ETF decision was just delayed again. Without a major FA driving force like a potential ETF decision hiding around the corner, BTC price is fated by the charts. Sure, there are several factors in the distant horizon for Bitcoin like the Bakkt platform, another potential ETF, and the halving next year, but those are macro-view events with long time frames. In the here and now, were gearing up for what we believe is an impending alt season that may blow us all away with its force. Thats the hope - but its hope being lent to us by the charts. Essentially, we believe that the altcoin market has reached a macrocycle bottom and is ready for a substantial move to the upside. First and foremost amongst altcoins is, of course, Ethereum. We saw record trading volume on ETH pairs. As you may know by now, volume precedes price so, Ethereum will most likely lead the altcoin charge. Were positioned for that possibility and will update you further as the situation develops. SEC Puts Another Delay on Bitcoin ETF Decision In a repeat of all of last year, the SEC has again delayed deciding on the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal. The move was widely expected, and its doubtful that anyone was counting on approval this time around. Now that we think about it, its a little bit funny that the VanEck SolidX ETF delay has become a quarterly tradition in the cryptocurrency world. Every time a decision draws near, BTC decides to stretch its legs a bit. The new deadline for approval, rejection, is October 18, and at that point, theyll be all out of delays. Now they need to send a response. Approve or reject!!! After nearly two years of waiting, were finally getting close to decision time. If products by the likes of Fidelity and Bakkt are live and stable well before then, they should go a long way towards convincing the SEC that an approval is sound. Keeping an eye on crypto markets is hard work. The market never sleeps, requiring constant attention and unwavering focus from analysts, given how consistent and dedicated they are to keeping community moving with the market, and not against it. Lets Play God bless you!
BITMEX:XBTLong
by ferGOD
9
white lines need to holdboth white lines need to hold or IMO bitcoins in trouble for the short term, long term depends on getting joe public buying again NOT institutional money, the ico craze helped get it to 20k and thats never coming back. we need mass man on the street OTC . BAKKT is not the second coming , if you went in to a club with 500 people, half will have heard of bitcoin, almost all would not know how to buy it! thats the problem! ok so institutional money comes in and gets locked away, who's going to drive the price up for them? the public??? yep,,,,and if more public does not come in to buy to in crease volume then the institutional people, they will sell and move back to stocks and gold. think about it. this is what pomp and the like don't understand, Apple stocks etc move up because the public demand it and the whales buy and sell off that, but bitcoin???????????. have a think guys
BNC:BLX
by MoggsUk
1
The Golden FIB Bottom - 10 Reasons Why Bitcoin is Bottomed Out !Hello, These are my 10 Reasons why I think BTC is Bottomed out ! I am a huge bear when it comes to Bitcoin and I believe I am not alone anymore, the possibility of Bitcoin going lower has actually kind of became mainstream. The problem is that people always look at what happened in the past to predict the future, as this crypto space got bigger alot of investors and traders als got more mature. Almost every investor knows the saying sell the news, and with the CME crash in 2017 people are scared of what BAKKT will bring us. Everyone in the world is predicting a pullback to atleast the 8K region so why would it go there ? Don't forget that I was a big bear before this (look at my recent post where i called top 12K). Here are my 10 reasons why I think Bitcoin is bottomed out 1. Monthly RSI Trendline Bounce 2. Daily RSI Trendline Bounce 3. Monthly Golden FIB Bounce 4. Fake Out ! (Pumps right back and gets supported on REAL trendline) 5. Perfect 100 Daily MA Bounce (Retest) 6. Perfect Close Above Daily EMA RIBBON 7. Perfect 0.236 FIB Bounce 8. 3 Monthly Red Candles (3 Red Monthly will confirm Bear Market!) 9. Bakkt Launches 23 September (Buy the news this time ;)? ) 10. Apply Own Reason Here :)
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by themarketdog
6
BITCOIN - Bakkt’s & VanEck’s ETF - Part 1A Bitcoin sell off does not always mean it is trending, it is all a matter of perspective. If you focus on one hour charts, you will see a trend! For those who do not realize yet, losing is part of this game. When I was a beginner, I hated losing and used to make the mistake of letting my performance determine the value of my self worth. Back then, a colleague of mine used to always remind me that in order to win, you have to be able and willing to lose. It took years for me to fully appreciate those wise words. If you can't lose, you can NEVER win. Losing provides opportunities to develop, improve and grow if your level of emotional intelligence brings them to light. Over time these opportunities will lead to experience that will contribute to developing a personal process. We follow a process that allows us to make the best use of our time and attention while participating in broader movements when the market cooperates. In other words, once the criteria lines up, and we are triggered into a trade, it is up to the MARKET from there. We DO NOT react to noise, over think or second guess. As long as our risk is defined, it is up to the market to do the rest. Many may be over reacting to the bearish movement and assuming a trend. They will use trend following strategies, while over looking the fact that Bitcoin is still gyrating within a broad range (14K high to 9K low). Since price has not made any progress outside of this range, we continue to view it as a consolidation UNTIL it proves otherwise. Proof will have to come in the form of a break out, either below 9K or above 14K. We don't predict, we adjust and prepare. What if price breaks lower? The 9K area is the extreme support where a fake out can most likely occur. We trade the long side only, so this is an error that we automatically avoid, but many will get sucked in. IF price can clear 9K decisively, ONLY then will we consider the 8500 support level in play. For our investment strategy (SEPARATE from swing trades), the 9K to 8500 - 7500 area is attractive when it comes to accumulating more inventory. In summary, Bitcoin is fluctuating around the lower region of a broad range, it is NOT trending on the degree to which we place the most weight on. For our swing trade strategy, this means the probability of the location favors long setups. We make every effort to remove ourselves from the equation and let the MARKET determine when to enter and exit a trade. Reacting is what often leads to errors and losses compared to letting the market present and trigger a trade idea. What are your rules? How do you define a market that is in a trend? Or in a range? How do you measure your risk and reward relative to the current price structure? If you can't answer these questions clearly and decisively, then you should not be risking real money. Most new traders and investors come to this arena focused on profit, and overlook the value of consistency. Risk is the only variable we can truly control which is why our process begins with a defensive mindset. This is why we can be right less than 50% of the time, yet still produce a positive return overall. BTC Back in Business Hope you all had a restful labor day! Nothing quite like a respite from the usual to hit the reset button and start the week fresh. Speaking of fresh starts, BTC found renewed vigor as it unexpectedly jumped from $9,400 up to $10,700. The run-up from $9,600 was particularly vigorous. Ascending volume matched bitcoin’s rising price tag tit for tat before topping out in a stride. The latest move confused anyone seeking logic behind it. However, it correspond very nicely with the news that VanEck SolidX is offering a limited bitcoin ETF to institutional investors. In the short term we have: • VanEck’s unexpected ETF offering • Bakkt’s bitcoin futures live date on the 23rd • Final ETF decision arriving mid-October The takeaway is that we’re entering a precarious time rife with potential for extreme volatility. Remember, volatility is not just to the downside, but to the upside as well. Bitcoin’s obvious strength over the past couple of days tells us that with only an additional bit of fuel thrown in the fire, we may find ourselves firmly breaking out of the descending triangle in the chart below. A move up towards $11K may be nothing more than a fake out attempt at breaking from the triangle, but banking on that by being short now is more risk than we’re willing to stomach. After all of these weeks spent sideways and slipping lower We’re monitoring the situation closely and will keep you up to date.
Short
by ferGOD
4
BITCOIN - Not a Triangle! Still a Double Three!!!This correction might not be over. We have already completed pattern 3-3-5 Flat Correction, Primary Structure - Double Zig-Zag in Intermediate (W). Then we completed what looks to be a large ABC pattern or Wave X and is developing, Intermediate (Y) - Expectations and Minor degree ABC sequence. A "Double Three" will complete one corrective wave pattern, or there is also something called a Triple three which has a corrective pattern, X Wave, corrective pattern, X Wave, and then ends on the third corrective pattern. Will probably wait and just add more longs to my position at the bottom of the Zig Zag if that plays out. Yes, very possibly around $8,500 ( BTC1! ) CME OPENING GAP *** At any rate, like always, this is not advice, just one person's opinion of the current chart situation. I am not Bearish long term. I am a Bull. A new Bull run will start with a very aggressive and impulsive 5 wave move up. We have not seen that yet. I just have not been able to line it up with a valid impulsive pattern yet. The first target is around $9,100 (As there is much support in that area and where many shorts may start to cover and many bulls begin scaling in long). Other point (retangle green) marks the CME futures GAP and target full fibo 1.236%, or target complete 1.618% to retracement I am not Bearish long term. I am a Bull of Bulls. Elliott Wave Double Three Combination elliottwave-forecast.com Bearish | SELL Levels Entry @ 11100.00 SL @ 12299.00 TP @ 9300 / 9100.00 / /8500 / 7500.00 Bullish | BUY Levels Entry @9100 / 8500 / 7500.00 (or Market Price) with SL @ 5800.00 TP @ 10500.00 / 9500.00 / 7500.00 / 10000.00 / 14000.00 / 16500.00 / 18000.00 / 21000.00 / 25000.00 / 30000.00 / 35000.00 Safety Measures: Moving SL to beak-even when in the green.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
5
$20,000 BITCOIN Before October - Save the Date! Bitcoin is about to surprise many people. We are about to take off to retest the ATH at $20K before END of September! With Bakkt launching on Sept 23 we all know what this means to crypto. I am expecting a huge P&D. You first create liquidity and they dump right after. Consider 18 months of OTC purchases for the past from institutional investors, they got to show some return on investment to attract more money - They didn't get paid in 2018, most crypto hedge funds shutdown at a loss. They will create massive FOMO and liquidity and short the living hell of Bitcoin to buy back at $3k range. Altseason will be trigger immediately after this dump. Many of you might think this is a pipe dream but I believe this has been the plan all along. They will pump Alts to new ATH and crash that market as well. After this Alts Dump, see a massive decline sideways until XMAS pump and a rush back to more BTC accumulation through May is my expectation. If I am right, and BTC pumps to a new ATH, alts shall rally harder than ever. This is your opportunity to accumulate as much BTC as you can. The Altcoin market will drag post Altseason 2019 until end of 2020. This will be the last major Alts pump until we have full fledge regulations. BTC maximalists are trying and doing everything they can to kill alts for the past 15 months, this is a long game & now institutional investors wants to tame volatility to attract more money and hedge for the next global crisis with Cryptos. My take is that, they are indeed pushing for an alts cleanse, however I believe they will manage to kill all the non sensical projects over the next 12 months and drive this market to the trillions of dollars that SEC chairman said we could reach by end of 2020 of 20 Trillion Dollars. I hope they succeed and we can focus on the real Gems moving forward. Distraction is the reason why crypto have not gone mainstream just yet. We need about 100 good projects solving real world problems. No more! Good luck & let's see how this call plays out. Happy trading & stay Safu!
Long
by CryptoBitShow
7
A Glass Of Red On The DailyMeanwhile in Satoshi's land things are running smoothie. It's 4pm, and in the grand scheme of things, a glass of red on the daily keeps the doctor awaily. Contemplating the other side where Braindead bots are running out of Steem, Just 40 minutes ago he spat out his Mccoffee watching Dead Alive 2, a chinese remake of the classic zombie horror comedy. It's 4:20 now and he's scrolling down Facebook: Traders driving sideways in an Opel CaLibra. People trying to catch a fish with a fork on a Ripple. Stories about who is Wright and who is wrong, Laughing so hard that if he would wear boxers would have already peed his Calvin Kleinman. Time for a nap, until next time, I will be Bakkt
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bitconiano
246
Bitcoin - Trendlines and Indicators are for BROKE ASS TRADERSBitcoin - Trendlines and MOST OF ALL Indicators are for broke ass "traders" Really, tell me WHAT THE FUCKING HELL u guys keep using this shit? Trendlines + RSI + Fucking another 100 Trendlines + Candlesticks patterns.. "The RSI indicator are saying bla bla bla bla, and the trend line gonna be retest cause the RSI is oversold.., bla bla bla bla.." Guys think ahead, do the OPPOSITE What these stupids "traders" are saying here." I told u when everybody was saying "moon, moon, btc moon". I told you in one of my first Ideas about BTC was going down.. "Bitcoin - Gods are talking about the next BIG MOVE!!" And now u have the same shit with the Bakkt news... Remember, almost 99% traders losing all their money, so why u gonna go with the majority? Buy the rumor, sell the news Yeah, I know my english is not the best.
BITMEX:XBTShort
by UncodedMind
BTCUSD...71% dominance & 2 heavy bag locations.Sadly from what I have heard...80% of BTC is still held by exchanges overseas allowing for a lot of manipulation. It is centralized by a few in power and easy to manipulate even though the technology is decentralized. BTC fans will hate me for saying that but hate the truth all you want. What is even scarier is that there is 71% dominance in btc over the entire market. I will sell the hell out of this if we head closer 20k before the end of the year. Still expect a hype before the futures bakkt storm. If we are closer to 20k before then...down we go...if we are closer to 6k ...up we go... pretty simple analysis thats based on factual sentiments of market behavior from history. Just re-applying some simplicity here. These prices don't look good for mass adoption of BTC. Nobody wants a crumb in an asset if you are apart of the mass population but they look good to push back to 20k and short again once they release futures on Bakkt. IF you are a BTC fan..I need some schooling so please enlighten me on the production of BTC and what the hell is happening. For someone who is heavily into this I lack the protocol knowledge as to where these devs are taking it and what is going on. So don't hate me..just enlighten me..I am a fan of manipulation in this market and I can see it spike and drop but I also see our curvature happening around 7-8k zone like I stated awhile back once we got our levels set by the big investors. Do you think they'll make it more appealing again around 7k? Or do you think the masses are shit out of luck this time and we will continue on forth up wave 2 into a new ATH? ...This technical analysis seems more realistic to me...a spike up making a head...a right shoulder...retest to 7-8k ...then up we go. I think a lot of people see it going lower than that or WISH for it to...but I just don't see BTC heading any lower than 6200 unless we get a big dump on purpose. Lots of exchanges are also closing due to regulation. Many adjustments are happening this year so volatility is going to be your best friend if you dont buy the middle!!!! DONT FORGET ELECTIONS ARE ALSO COMING UP AS WELL AS MORE TRADE WARS WITH JAPAN. Where are my BTC fans? help a brother out! Thanks all! BTW I am attending a bankers Digital Asset meeting today. I will inform you what they say about DA if there is anything important.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AschraM
5
BTC is going down baby! The Shit is about to hit the fan. Heya All, More and more I look at the price action I feel that these FIB circles of death and capitulation guys might be up to something. They might have been right all along... however, until proven otherwise on regular bases I don't really believe all these crab circles, fractals. BTC LTC and BTC GOLD leading indication BS. This being said, support and resistance remain to be my god and MAs are my apostils. Halliluiah! Praise the mighty 50 and 200 EMAs on 4 hours! Can I get Aaamen?! Moving on.... Here are interesting observations and high probability scenario moving forward: 1. A death cross is upon us and most likely it will come with a size of destruction which can be measured reasonably well. Usual death cross brings about 15-25% drop from our nearest top, which means that: - Scenario A: about 15% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the first blue resistance box, -Likelihood 85% - Scenario B: about 20% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the second blue resistance box, - Likelihood 65% - Scenario C: about 25% drop from the nearest top will bring us to the edge of the third blue resistance box, - Likelihood 35% So this provides a nice trade setup. Timewise----- I think that short setup might take up to 4 days to fully realize. if we breach the first box and we manage to open and close under it on 4 h it will hint near term continuation to the next box, if we open and close under it then the target becomes the third box in the line. Open and close on 4H under the third box will likely be a first leading indication to a possible general trend reversal, this will be a major change of BTC's behaviour (there is more to that but, I prefer not to speculate until a precedent). 2. We are under major moving averages on 4H , next big support which most likely will not give much of the resistance is brown 377 EMA. Daily 100 EMA is standing at 9777 and Daily 200 EMA is at 8100 (this level is irrelevant for now). Weekly 21 is at 8850 levels so this might present a potential bounce area in between the second and the third resistance boxes. 3. Declining volume profile for the last week indicates that the price is ready for a massive move and it will take incremental trades to generate large leaps. 4. There is a good possibility that we draw a massive wick to 10800 levels from here and avert the whole situation but at this point, I think that chances of this taking place are slim. Stay safe people and have a profitable week-end. Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by akublashvili
2