AUDUSD. Aussie is still under pressure.Hi all!
I guess, we are in the last 5th wave down of C of (B) before huge growth.
0.60 is the triple support level where we should watch carefully.
Intelligent trades!
Australian
GBPAUD LONG LOOKING FOR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AT MY BUY ZONE WHICH IS IN CONFLUENCE WITH A FIB LEVEL AND A 3RD TOUCH OF THE TREND LINE. A BREAK OF THIS BUY ZONE WILL LEAD DOWN TO MY NEXT BUY ZONE. FUNDAMENTALLY THIS TRADE IS ONLY GOING IN ONE DIRECTION IN THE LONG TERM BECAUSE THE BOE (BANK OF ENGLAND) STATED THAT THEY ARE CLOSER TO RAISING RATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE END OF THIS YEAR OR IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 WHICH LEAVES GBP THE SECOND STRONGEST CURRENCY AFTER THE DOLLAR.ON THE FLIP SIDE AUD IS BEARISH ALONG SIDE THE OTHER COMMODITY CURRENCIES SUCH AS CAD AND NZD. CHINA SITUATION IS ALSO WEIGHING DOWN AUD. FIRST TARGET AT SWING HIGH/2.12000
AUDNZD short tradeThis is a 0.5% risk trade I am currently in. the downward move looks impulsive to the downside and I guess there is still high probability to continue going down. And from looking at AUDUSD (still to go down) and NZDUSD (going up and currently finishing wave 2 down) this trade seems ideal :)
another "conservative"short entry could be entered after the price breaks the lowest point of wave D (1.1037) with SL @ the highest point of wave E (1.1089).
Technicals:
Wave E now is perfectly equal to 0.618 wave C.
Wave C is perfectly equal to 0.618 wave A.
Risk-reward ratio (2.4:1)
AUDUSD daily, opportunity to go longAUDUSD on a daily chart, closed with a doji and it's on the strong support level, breaking of 0.784th level will go long all the way to 0.0804
Daily Double Top + Hourly H&S Pattern - AUD/USDConfluence Factors:
1. Double Top on Daily
2. Close below 50/60 EMA on Daily following a long-legged doji on 3/24/2015 via Daily Chart
3. Rejection of Key Weekly/Daily Resistance at .79000
4. Head & Shoulders Pattern on Hourly Chart
5. Trade is in agreement with overall Monthly/Weekly Bearish Trend
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART SHORTI'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD CURRENCY IS STILL OVERVALUED AND THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT SAID HE.LL LIKE TO SEE AUD REACH 0.75000 WHICH IS ADDED CONFLUENCE THAT ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL WE GET THERE. AUD IS DOVISH WHILE THE FED IS HAWKISH SO WE'VE GOT A GREAT DIVERGENCE ON THIS PAIR.
Potential Bullish Flag Breakout Into A Bearish BatA lot of news coming out this week for both CAD and AUD but on the technical side of things what I see is a bullish flag pattern forming within the C to D leg of a potential bearish bat pattern. I don't trade flags the same way i trade advanced patterns but I do like when they come back into previous structure as in this case so it's something I will certainly be keeping my eyes on to see if I will get a chance to be involved.
If so you can look to ride price action up to the potential bearish bat and then stop and reverse putting yourself short the advanced pattern. Not that this means much as I don't have that much of a bearish bias, but the Bat completion would also give us a valid C leg of a much bigger Gartley pattern located on the daily.
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A mix of tech and fundamental analysis produces a sell signalCCI - Drifting from overbought back into the channel indicating reduced upward momentum.
MACD - Look at the MACD crossover from relatively high level. A very powerful signal on a daily chart.
DeMarker - Moving from overbought falling firmly into the channel.
RSI - Bearish divergence.
Linear Regression - Bouncing off the top of the channel. Also powerful signal.
Bollinger Band - Bounce off the upper band to its average price.
The moving averages are indeed trending higher, but I dont this will be maintained for long. Moving averages can't look like this forever.
Fundamental Analysis - The Australian economy is slowing and unemployment is rising. Lowered Chinese growth and lower commodity prices are starting to take it's toll on the economy. Yet the ASX is at an all time high.... I can't see how this can last.
Quick thoughts on AUDUSDIt's a pretty risk trade, and I'm only taking it because I made a mistake opening a position short on this pair friday. If it breaks upside, it'll simply continue the trend, drop the position and take the loses.
Otherwise, if it breaks below because of a gap or something, accept profit and get out too, because it could be a bounce confirmation.
Anyway, good luck all.
AUD/NZD - KIWI IS STILL FIGHTING FITThis particular currency pair representing the two neighbouring economies with some similarities yet different dynamics in which one has larger dependence on mining resource and the other on dairy produce has been in very large sideways move in almost unrecognisable swings and patterns. This is so until you zoom out using larger time frame and look back with adequate historical price.
This massive sideways move since at least 1995 with very wide range which is easily seen using monthly time frame in my screencast chart Link: www.screencast.com
From general characteristics of the price action since February 2011, it appears that it is in 5 wave impulsive move to the downside. If this is correct then we could be close to completing (though it still has room to run) this larger sideways congestion with strong counter rally or new bullish cycle ensuing.
However, right now we had congestion during January - October 2014. Many who have posted their charts on this pair are interpreting this as beginning of the new bullish cycle to the upside. They seem to suggest that in addition to some price action analysis, they have taken into account fundamentals of two economies, interest differentials and large institutions positioning.
This is all far too complicated and beyond my ability to analyse and suspect other analyst attempting to do so too. So to resolve issue, I am proposing that you accept the premise, that the stronger economy in the main would likely have stronger currencies too. The one with the stronger economy would likely have stronger equity market out performing the weaker one.
From this supposition, consider:
the ratio chart of Australian Stock Index / Newzeland Stock Index. See the chart below ( ) . You will note that since 2011 we have Newzeland Equities out performing that of Australian. In addition it also appears to be in the process of completing a 5 wave decline which is possible in mid-stream ie wave iii of 5 appears to be in progress. If this is correct then AUDNZD pair is likely completing wave i of 5 and is lagging the equity ratio, therefore, any retracement could offer shorting opportunity that have some way to go before this bearish cycle is over.
On completion of this, there would be a possible deep retracement to the upside or new Bullish Cycle to unfold which will offer long opportunities.
The price progression will either confirm the above analysis or otherwise and hopefully assist in resolving the dilemma as to which way the AUD/NZD is headed, positioning you on the right side of the larger trend.
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AUDUSD SELLShort Trade....Triple Top?
I think it may be a bit late to do this however I have been thinking about shorting the AUDUSD all morning.
I think that it is still a good short and you can still make a further 40-50 pips.
I would looking to get in at around 0.87900 (if it comes back).
If it doesn't then afraid this position may be too late.
As I wrote this message the AUDUSD fell by about 10 pips already.
LETS GET IN!!!!
London Session Watch AUDUSDWe have a false break of the inside bar candlestick pattern on AUD/USD. First, the price broke below the low of the inside bar candlestick pattern but then moved back up and closed within the inside bar candlestick pattern which traps the sellers who sold at the break of the inside bar candlestick pattern. Note that the Stochastic and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) were both in overbought territory at the time when price broke below the inside bar candlestick pattern which should lead the price lower but it closed back up leaving a false break here. With all the bears being trapped, we could potentially have some buying opportunities in today's London session.
Keep an eye on the AUD/USDA possible long opportunity is coming up for the AUD/USD. We would just need a little more movement upwards for me to jump in and say BUY with conviction. All the indicator signals are aligning to produce a message that says the market is ready to shoot up.
Signals:
Price bouncing off Linear regression.
Price bouncing off long term support.
MACD moving into bull territory with upward momentum.
RSI is moving up.
CCI is lifting up into buy/oversold territory.
Moving Averages are turning up.
Bollinger Band has potential to expand.
