Audusdbearish
AUD Pairs Get Ready To SELLHi everyone. It's KHALID here. I'm seeing potential Bearish continuation for AUDUSD (and all AUD pairs). Price is in a Bearish trend, and retraced just now because of good employment data. As long as the price didn't close above the black line, I'm still favoring a Bearish trade. TAYOR
AUDUSD Headed South for SummerAfter NFP data release. We see that once again the US has provided traders with sentiment to keep bears on track against the greenback.
Initial Entry during NFP saw us enter the swing towards downside target profit of 0.69295.
Re-entry towards the downside from 0.69700 zone has proven that were gaining momentum on AUDUSD towards our swing target of 0.68500
JOLTS numbers proved itself on AUDUSD as a slight upside trickled its way into weakness as selling pressure seems too strong for the Aussie Dollar as the previous bullish momentum has officially died off just above 0.70000 psychological level as price failed to sustain itself above this level for a decent upside comeback.
AUDUSD, A good pop up but more downside comingLooking to form a clear running flat pattern (where it is now) or the hopeful and very predictable standard flat, where you can see I hope it goes to, purely for better returns on any short position. Bullish buyers beware, this is still a bear's paradise for the days to come at least.
AUD Technical analysis:AUD bearish bias strongest ahead of RBA Fundamental View:
==================
RBA rates cut on May 7 for many reasons. So there is a good chance of trading. In May of 1016 RBA was cut, Then almost weak to 150/20 pips against almost all major pairs.
1.Inflation:
RBA's annual inflation tag is below 2-3%, RBA does not hold the normal rate. The reason for this is to keep the * auds stable. * Keep the labor market right. * Ensure balanced income. Australia's current infusion is 1.4% where their togates are 2.5% because of which it is forced to cut rates.
A break of 0.6980 triggers fresh selling towards early 2016 levels. However, the year 2016 bottom near 0.6820, followed by the January month’s flash crash low of 0.6730, can appear on the bears’ radar afterward
2. Markets are focused on Trump's renewed China trade threat and will likely keep AUD on the defensive.
3. AUD/USD risk reversals hit 3.5-month lows on Monday.
4. Investors likely buying puts in anticipation of RBA rate cut.
Technical View:
==============
There are major support at the current rate of 0.6980. If the breakout is 0.6980, then the Next Target 0.6900 and Final Target 0.6830.
On the other hand, there are major registrations at the current rate of 0.7110 area. 0.7110 when the area breakout, next target More than 7160, I do not see any fan coming up next Friday.
*** So Sell Position Is best about 0.7000 Area Target 0.6830 Area.
Daily SMA100 0.7114
Daily SMA200 0.7170
Previous Weekly High 0.707
Previous Weekly Low 0.6984
Previous Monthly High 0.7206
Previous Monthly Low 0.6988
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7010
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.700
AUD/USD Bearish Momentum: Begins to RallyTechnical Analysis
Having recently broken the trend line in April resulted in a Lower High as the price failed to retrace back above the trend line which was once support has become resistance. This week we made a Lower Low in AUD/USD suggesting the Bears have gained momentum. These confluence of these factors suggests that AUD/USD bearhish momentum is rallying. We will how the week closes but analysis suggests we will close below previous lows.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .767 / .777 we see a downside risk for .716
Lower Targets would be .690 and .680
What Changes This? Above .777 shifts the outlook towards a bullish theme.
Fundamental Analysis
The beaten-up Aussie dollar continues to stumble toward the cliff edge as we made fresh Lower Lows this week. Rumours surface that the US and China are to resume trade talks.
Overnight Bloomberg cited three people familiar with the plans as saying negotiations may resume soon as officials race towards a July 6 deadline, which may lead to a rally of USD Pairs. Furthermore, AUD has taken the strain of global trade frictions as well as emerging Asian market angst on both the trade front and concerns over rising US interest rates.
AUDUSD H4 *Short Opportunity*When markets open this evening I will be looking at shorting the Aussie Dollar down to the daily trendline, as this has been respected a few times in the past couple of weeks, this will most likely be an intra-day swing trade to get in and get out. Only because of RBA releasing minutes on Tuesday followed by a speech from Yellen later that day, could make some shifts between the two trendlines / provide a clear breakout of the bearish trend the Aussie Dollar has been stuck in. On Friday evening it rejected the monthly 0.75540 support nicely with the bulls closing a bullish engulfing to help it recover from this price, however it then bumped back into the 4 hourly trend and rejected.
Stochastic is in the overbought region on the 1 hourly by quite a bit, possibly signalling a reversal to support the fall back down to the 0.7530 area. The head and shoulders formation provided a confirmation that the downwards trend would continue, but will it have now run out of steam...
I believe the Aussie Dollar will remain bearish hence my short signal and at least bump into the daily trendline, if not beyond. Fundamentals pending, this is my sentiment for now and I will be waiting for market open to see how this will play out.
AUDUSD : CROWNSHi traders,
I must admit... I called this trade a little early for my students yesterday! I didn't though it would go back a second time test out the new support tuned resistance + FIB extension above. I'm not mad though.. a double confirmation is even better to show us that the bear trend is in full effect. Now we are looking for this pair to resume what happened last Friday!
Here's what I'm thinking :
AUDUSD SHORT
ENTRY : 0.7668
SL : 0.77281
TP : 0.74271
Trade safe!
Disclaimer: This is my trading analysis, it is not an invite or recommendation to trade.