$NLC.V Thoughts and Limit Buy OppIn looking to add to my Long Position in Neo Lithium Corp $NLC.V / $NTTHF I have approached this TA from a bearish perspective over the short term. As detailed on the chart, You can see price make relatively weaker advances: The first move up in early June was stopped at +3SD channel, the next at +2SD channel (note volume). Price always travels back to the mean and $NLC as a miner is not above choppy action in SP. To be clear, I don't see massive downside risk here, but rather some selling pressure channel trading back to the $2.70-$2.75 range.
On top of Linear Regression Analysis, the 21 ema is currently acting as support and the 9 ema (I applied it to see where it was but can only keep 3 indicators) is acting as resistance. I think the clearest conclusion to draw currently is that NLC is trying to figure out which way it is going to go.
One could make the argument that if the market holds here for the most part and small caps participate in a further advancement that $NLC could maintain the mean and advance back up through the positive side of the channel. $NLC is not without near-term catalysts in this Quarter like an off-take agreement and/or financing to finish capitalizing the 3Q Project + release of its DFS. I am taking the approach that these catalysts are a month + away and the above TA in the short-term may come to fruition. I have placed a LB for shares at $2.71.
In sharing this post I think its worth noting that at the Annual and Special Meeting held on June 25th the company set forth a vote to allow the board the discretion at a future date to consider a consolidation of the common shares of the company on a 1 for 2 ratio to list on a Senior US Exchange. Not a guarantee this R/S will occur, but its a possibility and something to be mindful of. When pre-revenue companies R/S, their SP can crater. Granted 1 for 2 is as good as you can get when it comes to R/Ss. I am keeping some cash for a buy further down the road to cover off this risk that may exist and take advantage of a downturn. I have emailed Mr. Vicens the company's CFO and contact person on SEDAR kindly asking for an update on the AGM vote as its been some time since the meeting. I will share any update given on ye olde twitter.
As always Please follow your own trading rules and do DD first.
Cheers,
Luke
Argentina
Buy $PAM - NRPicks 14 MarPampa Energía S.A., an integrated electricity company, is engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Argentina. It operates through the electricity generation, electricity distribution, oil and gas, petrochemicals, and holding and other businesses segments.
For context, the unemployment rate in Argentina decreased to 11.7% in the third quarter of 2020 from 13.1% in the prior period, decreasing from the highest unemployment rate since the third quarter of 2004. The monthly inflation rate in Argentina fell to 3.6% in February 2021 from 4.0% in January and in line with market expectations and is close to present its GDP growth (Y / Y).
- Income in 2020 $ 1.07B
- ADJ EBITDA $ 750M
- P / S 0.82
- P / B 0.57
- P / E 10.01
- Sales past 5Y 100.60%
Technical:
Support at $ 12.70
MACD Level (12, 26) 0.05
Average RSI levels
BMA Technical Analysis 🧙Banco Macro SA is a financial institution and it provides standard banking products and services designed to suit individual needs. It has two categories of customers, retail customers, which include individuals and entrepreneurs, and corporate customers, which include small, medium, and large companies and corporations. In addition, it provides services to four provincial governments. The firm generates most of its revenue from Argentina.
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TEO Technical Analysis 🧙Telecom Argentina SA operates in the telecommunication service industry. The company provides "quadruple play" services, cable television services, Internet services, fixed telephony, and telephone-related services such as international long-distance and wholesale services, data transmission and IT solutions outsourcing. The company provides its services in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and in the United States.
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NYSE:GGAL - La nave insignia del Merval en problemasNi las buenas noticias de la renegociación de la deuda parecen hacer reaccionar al título más importante del mercado argentino. A punto de perder el canal alcista que empezó a construir luego de la caída por la pandemia del COVID-19. Es importante que defina soporte en la zona de 9.74, aunque el aftermarket del 11/9 la ubicaban ya en 9.72. De no mostrar reacción en los primeros días de la semana del 14/9, para al menos definir una nueva tendencia lateral, podemos esperar bajas hasta la zona de 7.82
TGLT - What's this figure?Apart form the surely artificial rally from late July 2020, TGLT is describing a perfectly symmetrical figure, which begins from January 2020. What is it? I don't know: maybe some kind of reversal double-headed & shoulders... If so, would price sink up to ARS 5,00? Better wait no confirmation!
What's next for the Argentinian Peso? What's next for the Argentinian Peso?
Over the past year, the Argentinian Peso has last 20.3% against the US dollar. A combination of spiraling government debt, political unrest, and the Coronavirus have seen Argentina fall further into recession.
The deprecation of the Argentinian Peso came when the government defaulted on their debt for the 9th time – three times being in this century alone. The country officially defaulted on their debt on May 22nd, when it missed a $503 Million interest payment. Argentina's President, Alberto Fernandez, said they wouldn't be able to resume payments to the IMF for another five years. Currently, Argentina has a debt burden of $323 Billion at the end of 2019, which is equivalent to 88% of the country's GDP.
Alongside this, political instability and the Coronavirus have to lead the Argentinian Peso lower. There are concerns that hyperinflation will ensue in Argentina, similar to what has happened in Venezuela.
Drawing lessons from Venezuela
The poster child for Hyperinflation, Venezuela's fall came swift as a boom in oil prices influenced government policy. Prices from 2010-2014 were in the $100 range for Brent Crude, and Venezuela decided to fund their social systems to combat poverty and inequality. However, prices in 2015 plummeted to $50, and the Venezuelan could not pay for their social services. Furthermore, similar to how the Australia dollar is vaguely correlated to the commodities it exports, the Venezuelan Bolivar plummeted as oil exports accounted for 90% of the government's revenues. To pay for their social welfare system, the President at the time, Nicolas Madura, decided that the solution was to print more money, increasing the supply of the Bolovair in the market. It was not the solution. This caused rapid inflation in the country. In attempts to reduce this, Madura decided to make it more difficult to exchange the Bolovair into the US. However, in the Black Market, it US dollar was still being freely traded. By 2018, the exchange rate for the 1 USD was 250,000 Bolivares. But by the end of the year, the government decided to devalue the official rate to the black market rate, sending the official value of the Bolivar down 95%. Inflation reached a peak of 130,000% in 2018.
Argentina, while no technically at hyperinflation, might as well have their inflation numbers be rendered useless.
Currently, inflation in Argentina sits at around 53.8%. While Argentina does not have the same problem as Venezuela (dependent on a sole export), they have seen an increase in selling for the Argentinian Peso as institutional investors sell and devalue the country's bonds. Currently, the Peso is "free-floating," however, the government has imposed strict restrictions and steep taxes on officially exchanging the currency. However, just like Venezuela, there is a black market for the US dollar, which trades at a steep discount compared to the official rate. Currently, the official exchange rate is 72 Pesos for 1 USD Dollar. However, the exchange rate on the Black Market is around 120 pesos for 1 US Dollar. There may be a possibility that the Argentinian government devalues the currency, like what the Venezuelan government did.
However, this was not Argentina's first rodeo with inflation.
Pre 2002, the Argentine government was battling inflation problems and social and political unrest, like what is currently happening in Argentina. However, back then, a Peg was implemented to the US dollar. Once they abandoned the Peg in 2002, the value of the US dollar against the Peso skyrocketed 400%. The nation has been battling with inflation since the 1970's, where the government decided to increase the money supply by printing money, similar to Venezuela. The average inflation between 1975 and 1990 became 300%.
So, we can draw similarities between what happened in Venezuela and what is currently happening to Argentina. If we see the Argentinian government devalue the currency to actual market value, we may see the USD/ARS skyrocket and inflation go rampant in Argentina.
LOMAEn el caso de que vuelva a 102 se podría presentar una gran oportunidad de compra, en caso de romper el máximo anterior probablemente entre en un rally alcista impulsado por fundamentales como que el gobierno buscara una reactivación económica por medio de políticas keynesiana y por un aumento de la inversión privada en el desarrollo inmobiliario debido a los precios baratos de construcción en dólares
TXAR - Rebound within flat bottom wedgeToday Ternium Argentina (TXAR) began its way up towards its next resistance within its wedge, located around ARS 35. It can be noticed a substantial difference between selling and buying volume, being the former the most significant. Stoch RSI is 5/10, MACD is still depicting a downwards trend, and Momentum has reached its lowest level since COVID-19 market meltdown in mid-March.
Strategy: Do not buy this stock, and if you already own it, sell it when reaching a price between ARS 35 and ARS 36.
AR:PATA - Signs of breaking current bearish trendImportadora y Exportadora Patagonia (PATA) shows signs of starting its way up. RSI, MACD and Momentum are increasing at a moderate rhythm, but most importantly prices are about to escape from the downward channel that began after May 04 (ARS 43,00). The current RSI, MACD, and Momentum values depict an interesting point of
There are some resistances to consider: In regards of pricing, the first resistance is around ARS 36,50, confirmed with five contacts. If surpassed, ARS 38,00 should be considered. MACD +0,40 and Momentum +2,80 should also be considered as a sell signal.