AMZN
8/3/22 AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMZN )
Sector: Retail Trade (Internet Retail)
Market Capitalization: $1.420T
Current Price: $139.52
Breakout Price: $140.70
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $129.20-$113.70
Price Target: $143.70-$146.00 (2nd), $154.00-$156.10 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 23-26d, 54-59d
Contract of Interest: $AMZN 8/26/22 145c, $AMZN 9/16/22 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.75/contract, $4.40/contract
Amazon (AMZN) trade updatesClosing of the GAP at the end of April for Amazon, which had lateralized after the split.
In a week characterized by a positive reaction from the markets, thanks to quarterly better than expected or, as in the case of amazon, less bad than expected and thanks also to a Fed that simply confirms what it had anticipated.
Now the key data will be those of July inflation, considering that some people think that the peak occurred in June.
They are up almost 40% on Amazon and 30% on Apple , two companies that are almost a safe haven asset in difficult times.
For this reason, I will not liquidate the whole position but on the contrary, I will accumulate should there be a retracement, which I expect.
In the short term, those who have had the skill to enter the $ 105 area could think of taking home the profits and preparing to accumulate on the retracement.
If you want to hold the position, $ 145 could be a possible target, considering the 200-period moving average, which is usually felt by the price.
On a volumetric level, the one-year POC holds firmly against $ 165, there are no possible areas for it to move, considering the huge amount of trading at that price level.
That's where I'll take some of the profits home.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
SPX Weekly review and forecast: August 1, 2022Last week, the markets saw a strong move to the upside with the SPX closing just shy of 4150 (4133). The move was largely fueled by FED chair Jerome Powell's comments, as well as strong earnings out of mega market cap stocks such as AAPL and AMZN. AMZN rallied +17.5% on the week and is up a whopping +32% from its low on June 13th. A similar story for AAPL, which is up +8.3% WoW and +25% since June 13. Joining the party, energy stocks like XOM reported very strong profits which vaulted the XLE higher. So far, the primary thesis of a bullish continuation being powered by energy (XLE) and technology (XLK) has come to fruition. The question, of course, is how long it will last - but first, a snapshot of last week's action:
SPX: +5.2%
Nasdaq: +6.8%
Russell: +4.5%
__________________
Technology (XLK): +7.5%
Energy (XLE): +9%
Financials (XLF): +3.9%
Looking ahead to next week, the SPX is poised to retest the price zone between 4100 - 4200 which proved to be considerable resistance back on early June. The probabilities suggest some range bound action here, before the next major move. Needless to say, there's a chance that we could see a forceful continuation, and an even smaller chance of an outright rejection. Regardless, given the improving conditions, 4300 and 4400 are very much in play as potential upside targets heading into Q4.
The expected moves for this week are +/- 81.30 (SPX), 8.81 (QQQ), 4.8 (IWM). The Nasdaq is clearly in the pole position for this rally, and is threatening to push back to 14,000, but with another busy week of earnings, as well as unemployment numbers, and more inflation data, there is still plenty of fuel to spark volatility (which has fallen off a cliff).
Best of luck this week. If you found this helpful, please let me know!
SPY QQQ DJI , Are We heading into a recession? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fell over 20% since January of this year, and many are questioning whether the recent bull rally is an indication that the market may have bottomed, and if we are now recovering. Even with the fed announcing a 75bps rate hike this week, and a second consecutive quarter with negative GDP report, the market has gained over 6% just this week. Anyone can find a perma bull or perma bear argument and run with it, however I like to use historical data and context to give us an idea of what may possibly occur. So I compared the 10Y-2Y bond yield spread to see what has happened in the past, relative to the S&P500. The conclusion I came away with, is that there has not been a time when the 10Y-2Y bond yield has inverted, without a recession following it. The question is how long did it take for the full blown recession to occur, and that's the challenging part, and there is no way to predict when the actual recession will occur based on history. For example the three recessions that occurred most recently were the .com bubble, the great financial crisis of 2008, and most recently the mini Pandemic recession of 2020. All three times the chart showed clear inversions between the 10Y 2Y bond yield curve. In March of 2000 the spread between the 10Y bond yield and 2Y was -50 at the bottom of the inversion, and it took about 189 days before the stock market crashed. In 2006 the inversion bottomed around feb 2006, and the 10-2y spread was about -20, (which is actually where it stands today), and the stock market did not crash or feel the effects for another 500 days give or take. In 2020 the inversion bottomed around July of 2019 and the spread got as low as -.02, and the market collapsed in March of 2020 (many still question how the bond yields could have predicted the pandemic) nonetheless, this chart has proven to be a great predictor of recessions. So to sum it all up, using just technical analysis (the marco supports this but that another topic for another day), shows that the likelihood of another recession occurring is more likely then not, whether it will occur in a few weeks, months, or even years is the question, so I urge every trader to just keep this in mind its okay to go with the trend and make some money, however just be very cautious with your assets and keep this in mind. Best of Luck to all.
This is NOT financial advice just my personal ideas.
Nasdaq100 NDX Monthly Close Snapshot
Nasdaq100 index has rallied 12.55% in July to record the best monthly performance since April 2020.
Moreover, bulls have formed a monthly bullish engulfing candlestick - above the 100-EMA support region - to be confirmed by a higher open on Monday.
The positive sentiment is still intact to be challenged by 13,000 - 13,490 supply area.
$AMZN Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets $AMZN Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets
What an absolutely fascinating move for Amazon. I have 200 shares (avg. 110.30) and I have 127 calls sold against my position so they will likely get called away… lol
I also bought (just 1) Yolo call for tomorrow @ 1.16
(I also bought a yolo 115 put at 1.2 — so I might win even with my shares getting called….
But I did think this was a market over-reaction. Totally understandable - considering that we all have bear market/recession burnout…
I do have my bias about the second half of the year and it is sideways to down… but I want to read the technicals as they as… with my bias aside.
This is a super interesting setup… There is a pretty good amount of “GAPS” to fill tomorrow. I do NOT ever look at post market/futures activity… only regular trading hours. So this is going to open up in a BATTLEGROUND…. After hours took this to above the 180EAMA on the Daily chart and In my opinion, it will get smacked down tomorrow below it again. BUT if it keeps moving upward then there is the 200DMA that could be the next resistance and above that we have the downtrend resistance line…
The bottom trendline around 114 is support….
So there you have it, y’all… in this environment you really just need to know where all the key levels are at and FOMO in and hope it works out… just kidding… I meant make educated trades…
See you all tomorrow… GL
QQQ Nice breakoutTook QQQ 311C for tomorrow as discussed in yesterdays post. With AAPL AMZN after hours reaction, these calls gonna open up 300% tomorrow. Also took AMZN 130C for ER. i will be done at the open.
There is going to be a lot of FOMO tomorrow in the markets. Make sure u sell into strength tomorrow. Bears might throw in the towel after these ER reactions and probably bulls who ever sidelined are going to chase as well. So better to take profits and wait for a pullback.
SPY SPX Head and Shoulder?Keeping it simple... Looking at spy today.. im watching the $393.65 level, if spy does not hold i will be short, and Targeting the levels highlighted on the chart, $392.50>$388.30...Alternatively SPY above $395.05 would indicate a bullish run.
Just my personal idea, not financial advice, trade at your own risk.
AMZN Potential for bullish rise | 26th July 2022On the H4, with prices moving along the ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that prices will rise to buy entry at 125.51 where the swing high resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once there is upside confirmation that price has broken buy entry on the upside, we would expect bullish momentum to carry prices to take profit at 135.24 where the overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement , -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 127.2% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, prices could drop to stop loss at 117.71 where the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Amazon at important resistanceAmazon
Short Term
We look to Sell at 125.79 (stop at 132.33)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous resistance located at 126.00. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Posted a Bullish Outside candle on the Daily chart.
Our profit targets will be 103.03 and 91.98
Resistance: 125.00 / 138.00 / 150.00
Support: 106.00 / 100.00 / 85.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.