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AMD’s Earnings Stumble | A Golden Opportunity for Investors?Post Earnings Dip, Is AMD ready for a 2025 Comeback? Shares of Advanced Micro Devices dropped over 10% after releasing its third quarter FY2024 earnings report, which fell short of investors’ expectations. Although the results were not poor, the market had high hopes given AMD's premium stock valuation. The company did surpass revenue projections, but its non GAAP EPS matched market expectations plus the midpoint of its fourth-quarter revenue forecast slightly missed estimates. In my prior analysis, I upgraded AMD from a sell to a buy after a 20% dip, which realigned market expectations. Since that upgrade, the stock has climbed 15%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 9%. The recent earnings-driven decline has brought AMD's stock price close to my previously mentioned level. While the gaming segment saw a sharper decline in revenue in 3Q, the Data Center GPU division continued to exhibit strong growth, boosting overall revenue growth and improving margins. I believe AMD is still in a strong position to further accelerate revenue growth and margin expansion in the fourth quarter and beyond. As a result, I see the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity and maintain my buy rating on the stock, supported by its anticipated growth phase justifying its premium valuation. For 4Q FY2024, AMD projects 21.6% YoY revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance, with a $300 million potential variance. This growth is expected to be driven by continued expansion in Data Center GPUs. Although the midpoint guidance is slightly below market consensus, I believe AMD could exceed this number, given its track record. My estimate suggests a 24% YoY revenue increase, or $150 million above the midpoint. 3Q EPS Analysis Shows Margin Pressure AMD has shown consistent margin improvement since 4Q FY2023, though the pace in 3Q didn't meet expectations. EPS aligned with estimates despite revenue exceeding forecasts, indicating margin challenges. Non-GAAP gross margin rose by 50 bps sequentially, while non-GAAP EBIT margin showed strong improvement, rising by 350 bps QoQ. AMD forecasts a 4Q non-GAAP gross margin of 54% and operating expenses of $2.05 billion, driven by a favorable mix from its Data Center segment, which now represents 52% of total revenue. Management noted that gross margins in the Data Center segment are below the company average, focusing on customer needs and market growth for future gains. This contrasts with NVIDIA (NVDA), which reportedly has higher Data Center margins, though specific figures are not disclosed. With a 4Q revenue consensus at $7.65 billion, AMD projects a non-GAAP EBIT margin of 27.2%, suggesting an additional 200 bps sequential increase. The company appears well-positioned for both revenue growth and margin improvement, despite its valuation declining after the recent stock pullback. 4Q EPS Outlook Signals Continued Growth Although 3Q non-GAAP EPS met expectations, AMD’s growth accelerated from 18.1% YoY in 2Q to 32% in 3Q. However, the selloff post-earnings implies that investors anticipated even higher growth. Based on 4Q guidance, I estimate AMD’s non-GAAP EPS at $1.10, marking a 44% YoY increase. AMD's FCF profile also improved, generating $496 million in 3Q, a 13% QoQ increase despite a one-time acquisition-related expense of $123 million. Higher capital expenditures are expected in FY2025 to support MI300 growth and maintain momentum. Market Expectations and Valuation Impacts Before the 10% post 3Q selloff, AMD’s EV/EBITDA TTM was higher than NVIDIA’s, but they are now on par, despite AMD’s margins and growth trailing NVIDIA's. AMD’s non-GAAP EV/EBITDA forward multiple is 46.3x, compared to NVIDIA’s 42.6x, and its forward P/E ratio is 50.4x, 17% above its 5-year average and higher than NVIDIA’s 49.7x. While AMD's premium valuation can be justified given its growth acceleration, NVIDIA’s triple-digit EPS growth is not expected to continue. Moreover, NVIDIA’s gross margin recently declined, reinforcing the case for AMD’s valuation as it expands its growth in FY2025. AMD’s stock has retraced to a 0% YTD return due to margin concerns and underperformance in Gaming and Embedded segments, though the latter is gradually recovering. However, the company’s strong Data Center gains and continued margin expansion indicate a solid growth phase. The recent selloff has recalibrated market expectations, and with ongoing AI-driven demand, AMD’s growth is likely to extend into FY2025, making the pullback an attractive buying opportunity. What you think, Are you Moonish on AMD?
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
3
AMD Analysis: Shorting to $100 as Cup & Handle Pattern FormsHello Traders, I'm sharing a weekly chart analysis for AMD, where I’ve identified a Cup & Handle pattern. The current price is $148, and it's retesting the broken red trend line. I suggest considering a short position targeting $100. I've also included a back test for the two previous patterns, which support the validity of the middle red trend line. It's important to note that if AMD reaches the $100 level, the Cup & Handle pattern above the blue trend line will become valid, potentially targeting even lower levels around $55, or possibly further down. Additionally, pay attention to the downtrend progression channel in cyan. The current price of $148 is positioned around the resistance of this channel's middle line. If these scenarios play out, a harmonic pattern may also form, which I will define at a later stage. Stay cautious and manage your risk!
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by Eymen-GUVEN
AMD Investigating Potential Data Breach by Hacking GroupChipmaker AMD is facing a potential data security breach after a hacking group known as IntelBroker claimed to have stolen sensitive information. This information allegedly includes details on upcoming AMD products, customer databases, and internal documents. While leaked screenshots provide some evidence of a compromise, AMD is working with law enforcement to determine the full scope of the breach and mitigate any potential damage. Investor Jitters and Competitive Risks: The news caused a slight dip in AMD's stock price as investors grappled with the potential consequences. If confirmed, the stolen data could significantly impact AMD's competitive edge, especially if information about future product lines and proprietary technologies is compromised. This wouldn't be the first time AMD has faced such a challenge – the company previously dealt with a data breach in 2022. Cybersecurity Concerns in the Tech Sector: This incident underscores the escalating threat of cyberattacks within the technology industry. With a reported 78% increase in data breaches from 2022 to 2023, the need for robust cybersecurity strategies and vigilant monitoring is paramount. Beyond AMD: Broader Implications: The potential breach highlights the far-reaching effects of cyberattacks. Stolen data sold on the dark web can be used for various malicious purposes, impacting not only the targeted company but also its partners, customers, and the entire industry. Looking Forward: Lessons from the Investigation: As AMD investigates the claims, the outcome will be closely watched not just for its impact on the company's future but also for the broader lessons it offers in the ongoing fight against cybercrime. This incident serves as a stark reminder for all companies to remain proactive and continuously strengthen their cybersecurity defenses against increasingly sophisticated threats.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by signalmastermind
AMD Short Trade Opportunity - Very Overbought in a Greedy MarketNASDAQ:AMD is currently above a resistance level, and I think the price is very overbought here. There is still some bullishness short-term, but shorts have been getting wrecked and I wouldn't FOMO here. Maybe there could be a short trade setup once AMD stops trending up. I like the current price levels for shorting. I believe semiconductor chip stocks have been extremely bullish, and I haven't wanted to be against them. However, they seem very overvalued at current prices, and I think the market could get a pullback soon. I think the AMD stock price and RSI will need a correction within the next few weeks. The correction could put AMD around $140 price levels.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by realchartchamp
Market Top Looming For AMDRan through historical data on AMD and have quite a few signals of interest. The first event is bullish and calls for a move into the larger green box. Typically my signals come with a delay until the final movement is achieved. In this case, my Aggressive Multi-time frame indicator fired based on January 22, 2024 closing price. The signal was bullish, however, the common delay sees a retracement into the are of the pink box. Today, AMD moved down into the pink box possibly satisfying the delay prior to moving above the signal price and thus completing the signal. Although the delay and successful signal have both occurred, the stock cannot trade straight sideways forever. The likely direction is still very bullish, even if the stock were to revisit the small pink box in the next two days. Believing the stock will continue up, the question then becomes how high? I figure we are in the final end of an impulsive wave C. The five waves in this wave C are the larger Yellow numbers from when the wave began at the low on October 26, 2024. Yellow waves 1-4 are likely completed and we are in the final wave 5 upward now. Some of the common reversal points are highlighted with the wave extension levels on the right. 100% of wave 3's movement is at 151.05 while 200% is at 185.73. A wave 5 typically does not breach the 176.40% level therefore placing a likely top below 177.55. This yellow wave 5 is composed of five smaller white waves, of which 1-3 are likely completed and it is unknown if wave 4 was completed today too. Wave 4 could complete if there is additional downward movement within the next two days. Once wave 4 is confirmed the final white wave 5 will coincide with the market top. The same levels are interest on the left likely indicate a top below the 114% level. A common top is normally no higher than the 106-110% mark for micro fifth waves. This would likely keep the top below 177.20. I am not trying to find the top, but more of when the top could occur and what happens afterward. White wave 1 was five days, while wave 3 was six days. White wave 5 will likely be five days or less which is January 30. AMD reports earnings on January 30. There is a chance, either earnings, the outlook or a combination of factors do not fair well for AMD. There could be a final rally during the day on the 30th, until earnings come out after hours. AMD has debt that is due this year and the Fed's decision, but more likely its outlook on rate cuts this year could have a major impact on the refinancing of that debt. AMD could hold off on refinancing their debt if they believe cheaper rates are coming soon. If the Fed takes rate cuts off the table, do not provide a time table for cuts, or state factors enabling rate cuts are yet to be seen will force AMD to refinance their debt at higher rates. This could force them to sell stock (normally at a cheaper price), raise prices (consumers are already squeezed there) or another path not favorable to the short-term profitability. The earnings fall out will hit the stock on January 31. The Federal Reserve provides the next decision point on January 31. There is another signal that triggered at the close on January 12th that remains unfulfilled. That bearish signal indicated the stock could fall below 146.56 before February 20, 2024 based on historical data. The actual target box for the movement is the large yellow box on the chart. Based on the 383 studied occurrences, the signal is correct 91.361% of the time. Correct in this case would require a movement below 146.56. This instance could fall into the 8+% of failure, or it could occur via a longer path. I am positing AMD could crash down into the yellow box after fulfilling all signal price targets (pink, green, and yellow boxes). The Fed and earnings are only the beginning of the downward movement. I am still bearish on the market in the short-term (rest of 2024) even though I have called for the drop to occur in the prior months. The market is at new all-time highs, but are things really better than they were on January 3, 2022?
NASDAQ:AMD
by StockSignaler
AMD (wait for sell)Hi everyone - I'm with you with AMD signal and analysis. By checking the weekly and monthly graphs of AMD, the signs of decreasing power of the ascent can be seen. And in the daily time frame, the rotation of the market can also be clearly seen. And also, the bearish power has increased compared to the bullishness of the market. In the 4-hour time frame, you can see that it touched the ceiling of the channel several times, but it did not break and reached an important level. By closing the price below this level, a good opportunity to sell opens up and we can make a good profit. And bearish can continue until the end of the weekly channel (green channel).
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by currenceland
AMD stocks experienced range fluctuations in 1.382 and 1.618AMD stocks experienced range fluctuations in 1.382 and 1.618 positions This chart shows the weekly candle chart of AMD stocks over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, AMD stocks experienced range fluctuations in May and mid June of this year after retreating to 1.382 and 1.618 positions, following the 1.000 position of the golden section in the upper test chart! The weekly chart for the past two weeks has shown a long upward shadow and a steady downward shift in center of gravity! In the future, the probability of AMD stocks weakening is expected to return to the bullish starting point in May 2023 as shown in the chart!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Think_More
AMD to close its gap?Advanced Micro Devices - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 115.68 (stop at 122.08) Bearish divergence can be seen on the daily chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower. We have a Gap open at 25/5 from 108.27 to 117.31. A higher correction is expected. We are trading at overbought extremes. In our opinion this stock is overvalued. Our profit targets will be 100.68 and 97.68 Resistance: 125.00 / 132.83 / 135.00 Support: 115.80 / 108.00 / 102.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by VantageMarkets
AMD Bearish Short TermTwo weeks ago, I published a bearish trading idea on NASDAQ:AMD saying that I would go short if it broke $115.80. Apparently it didn't break, so didn't take any trades. Here is the link to that post: This week, we have an interesting scenario. Its a double top on daily chart and an outside bar. Additionally there is a divergence on stochastics. On weekly chart its a failed 2U. Its seems overextended and stochastics is overbought. Idea is to go short at low of Friday's candle ($119.90). This will trigger a 3-2D on daily and a 2U-2D on weekly. Target could be at least $115.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by nagabrahmam
1