06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58
Last weeks low: $56,573.01
Midpoint: $60,657.29
As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now.
From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally.
We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows.
For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
Altcoins
ADA - Time For Concern?🤔❕ADA vs BTC ❕
ADA failed to make a successful retest of the accumulation zone, having tested it yet again after breakout, and forming a nasty M-pattern. This is quite different compared to the previous time BTC made a new ATH and ADA followed.
Furthermore, the ADABTC chart is about to make lower lows, as ADA continuesly fails to increase in value with BTC:
Now, some may argue that this is indeed a good time to BUY - and I cannot argue with that logic. I would, however, just advise to take caution. Reconsider the fundamentals when considering ADA as a diversified part of your portfolio.
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BINANCE:ADAUSDT KUCOIN:BTCUSDT BINANCE:ADABTC
COTI ANALYSISHi Everyone!
COTI Analyze ( COTIUSDT), 1-day time frame ⏰
COTI has broken out from a triangle pattern
The breakout from the triangle pattern presents a potential buy setup
- if COTI can continue pump, first target is 0.15094 - 0.16086
- and You can Buy Limit in Support area 0.10960
GoodLuck Guys!
*Follow For More!
*DYOR
BTC 2024 BULL RUN SPECULATIONI am expecting something like this to play out (ceteris paribus). Pure speculation however the data is based on previous cycles. Expected blow off top between $140 - $160k with a potential bear market bottom in late 2025 at between approx. $30 - $40k. Further accumulated between the range then ready for a next cycle in 2027-28
Take CAUTION with these ALTS : ALGO, LTC, XRP, HBARIt's time to review which altcoins showed sign s of strength during the recent new Bitcoin All Time High (ATH) ... and which showed no strength.
Together with the failed breakout we observe on Algorand, THESE altcoins didn't fare much better. There are a few more, but let's focus on these alts for today:
What we're comparing this chart to, is the obvious increase we have seen on BTC (new ATH) and the following increases across other altcoin markets:
During the previous cycles; we often saw the altcoin market rally a week or two AFTER a new BTC peak.
From this, we can determine that most of the bigger altcoins (by market cap) should have rallied by now. In conclusion; we need to re-evaluate the fundamental arguments for these alts - why were they not able to show signs of strength like other alts? Why were the sellers so overwhelming compared to other alts?
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BINANCE:ALGOUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:XRPUSDT BINANCE:LTCUSD.P BINANCE:UNIUSDT BYBIT:HBARUSDT
They Can't Hold It Down! Bitcoin/Crypto Technical AnalysisTraders,
Let's review the week's price action on DXY, VIX, Gold, SPY, BTC dominance, USDT dominance, Nvidia, Total3 (altcoins), Solana, and Bitcoin. I'll discuss what the culmination of my indicators is currently showing for the week and weeks ahead.
ALT SEASON can start as early as next week and this is why.We frequently look at the altcoin market and very often look for clues on its dominance and market cap. A historic comparison of alts with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles shows that alts bottom after Bitcoin, a lag which is natural considering that BTC is the market leader. Similarly it is possible for alts to rally when Bitcoin is correcting or consolidating.
Using Bitcoin's Halvings as a measure to separate pre and post-Halving phases, we can see that in the past two Cycles, alts have made a dump within the green zone following Bitcoin's Halving.
On this Cycle however, we see that very same dump having started since late December 2023, while Bitcoin rallied aggressively, which is in our opinion attributed to the ETF anticipation and then launch in January 2024. It is therefore very probable that this was the alt market's 'post-Halving dump'.
In any case, Alts have reached the bottom of their usual Bullish Megaphone that is historically formed when they bottom. It is therefore very probable to see the new Alt Season, which is when alts rally parabolically and naturally more aggressively than Bitcoin, starting as early as next week.
What do you think?
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OMNI directional interest. Elliott Wave If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow!
Looking for these paths to play out for clarity to play off of.
Possible Elliott wave triangle here.
A break down and reclaim is a nice conservative move I am looking to play.
A break up impulsively, I would be watching for a retrace to play high.
The target for the triangle may vary. So agian, waiting for the price action to print down and signs of reversal.
AERO, take off! Storm ahead. If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow!
Took off out of area of interest and headed up to the next area of interest for me.
Going to be watching HOW, the price action reacts around this level.
If the level breaks I need to see it hold above.
Arrows indicate the price action I want to see.
Green Arrow. Red Arrow. Which Will It Be?As I see it we now have two more likely options regarding price trajectory for Bitcoin.
Let's first review what has occurred in the past few days. After 9 hits on our multi-year support, we finally broke WITH confirmation. That last part was important. I had stated that if we break and confirm, our first target down would become that first purple ascending trend line. Nailed it! Couldn't have been more precise. Yesterday, I then stated we should bounce and hit our heads on that 59.3k level. Boom. Done. Now, as I see it, Bitcoin has two most probable options to follow in terms of price. These options are represented by the green arrow and the red arrow.
If we break back above that 59.3k level, the green arrow is in play and we'll likely travel sideways for a couple of weeks/months. This will be very boring for Bitcoin trades but it could indicate some relief for altcoins. At that point, I would expect quite a few of the best to spring to life and start pumping again.
The red arrow is our other option, and honestly, this is currently the direction I am leaning toward until DXY, VIX, GLD, SPY, and NVDA tell me something different. DXY, VIX, and GLD continuing upwards would push stocks and SPY/NVDA down. BTC would likely follow. And though ALTS remains relatively stable at the moment, a move like this could bury some of the more risky. Keep those stops in place as it could get ugly. Thus far, my thesis on ALTS stands correct and our double-bottom has held and is holding for many. But, if that support breaks, ALTS would be in trouble.
As always, I'll keep you up to date on the altcoin charts (often via the weekend update) here as well.
Also, for my paid subscribers, know that we hit our level down and I have bought more of our best-performing altcoin. Check the trade tracker below to see the details.
ETH - Massive Bullish Impulse Soon ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 ETH has been overall bullish, trading above the red trendline which is acting as a non-horizontal support.
Currently, ETH is in a correction phase trading within the falling orange channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand in green at $2900 - $3000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower orange/red trendlines.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #ETH approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
🐶Floki(FLOKI)🐶 Fall by🌠Shooting Star🌠🏃♂️Floki(FLOKI) has managed to form a 🌠Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern🌠 near the Upper line of the Descending Channel and the Resistance line and 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡.
🔔I expect Floki(FLOKI) to fall at least to the 🟢 Support zone 🟢 and lower line of the descending channel.
❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: An important point you should always remember is capital management and lack of greed.
Floki Analyze ( FLOKIUSDT ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Approaching 2024 Altcoin SeasonLooking at the 1W time frame of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, it looks like it's time for the market to transition from being primarily Bitcoin-dominated to altcoin-dominated.
We've seen the writing on the wall with Bitcoin making headline after headline regarding United States Spot ETFs or the halving event. Now that the majority of investors are sucked into Bitcoin, timeline shifts into altcoins. We can see that through the news now with the attention picking up on Ethereum (not discrediting Solana growth by any means, it's still small enough in market cap where it doesn't marginally change the TOTAL2 cap or this chart). Ethereum has the impending United States Spot ETFs approval as well as regulatory clarity coming around Uniswap, and from that I'd assume we'd get some sort or clarity regarding memecoins as well, sending that respective market flying with a green light for institutional investors to invest.
Bitcoin is trying to grab attention or hold it's relativity now with Ordinals and L2s, and that's great! Let's say though you buy PUPS, that's considered part of TOTAL2 or bringing down the capitalization of Bitcoin relative to the rest of the crypto market. I'm expecting this trend to continue where Bitcoin holders are using their coins on-chain for these activities, ultimately dragging the BTC.D cap down with it.
This time around, I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the previous 72.04% level due to the sheer amount of tokens and liquidity flying around these smid caps. Each Bitcoin Dominance cycle or Bitcoin cycle for that matter, the altcoin seasons get less and less intense due to the amount of relativity they have compared to Bitcoin at all seasons instead of just during altcoin season. Around this 55% range is mid-range of this free-fall seen in 2021, and where orders are resting. We could see Bitcoin Dominance either range in this area or start free-falling, either way I don't see a market where we re-claim that 72.04% or push much higher for that matter.
Also, hearing a lot of talk about this cycle being over, cannot tell if they're joking or not, but we haven't seen that altcoin season euphoria yet. That is yet to come.
An interesting observation here we can see the 2021 altcoin season took 1085 days to build up from the bottom to the top of Bitcoin dominance, and this 2024 season is right on par with that 1085 days before the cycle ultimately starts. This Bitcoin cycle is a little bit different, so we'll see how this chart plays out this time around, but I remember last cycle, 2021, I called the 72.04% Bitcoin Dominance wick to the Tee. Could be longer, who knows, but so far this chart is playing out and figured I'd give an update.
The 2021 altcoins season lasted almost that full year of 2021, but as we can see on the chart, the major move happened between January - May 2021, those 5 months. If history were to repeat itself, we should see this cycle's main move play out in 5 months too.
RNDR Wave C SetupRNDR is currently ascending in a three-wave ABC structure, with wave A equaling wave C in target. The asset is now deep in the support zone, presenting a good opportunity to scale in for the upcoming wave C target of $25. It's advisable to begin scaling out early around $19, at the 0.786 level, rather than waiting for the precise target of $25.92.
PEPE - DOWNTREND, another DUMP coming 📢📢 PEPE-USDT📢
PEPE has seen an amazing bull cycle, increasing 800% parabolically over a few week. It's safe to say that just from this fact, a bear market is up next and we can already see the sins of an early bear market starting.
Our highly accurate technical indicator is showing that the bullish phase is long over, flashing a "SELL" signal a few candles back:
When we start to trade UNDER the green trendline, the price turns bearish and the trendline will now become red. For now, at least, it seems as though altseason may be over.
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BINANCE:PEPEUSDT
analysis of TOTAL3 (altcoins index)Update #analysis of TOTAL3 (altcoins index) time 4H
In the previous analysis, we expected this index to suffer and we see that the price has reacted to the specified resistance level and is suffering.
It is expected that this index will enter an upward trend from the specified price floor, and you must keep an eye on the evolutions.
And it seems that now is the best time to buy and hold at least for a while
Find Hidden Gem:Reach for $40 with QTK in Bull Run ( 50x GEM )#QTK/USDT - A Bullish 50x Gem Alert!
Why #QTK?
Currently up by 50%-70% from our initial entry.
Still in a prime entry zone with massive upside potential.
Targets:
Short term: $20
Long term potential: $40
Strategy:
Accumulation is key. Build your holdings steadily for long-term gains.
This is a rare opportunity as #QTK remains under the radar.
Platform:
Trading on MEXC Exchange.
Pro Tip:
Patience is crucial. Avoid the rush to book short-term profits if you're aiming for significant returns.
This is My research GEM.
NFA & DYOR
Polkadot (DOT): Are we done yet?We had to reassess the situation with DOT on the daily chart and have concluded that we are still not seeing the completion of Wave (2). Why is this the case? Because the correction downward following what we assume to be Wave (2) is too brief in duration to be considered a Wave 2. However, the upward movement towards Wave B was surprisingly strong. Since we have now fallen below the level of Wave A, and we make no exceptions for Wave 2 as we might for a Wave 4, we believe this represents an overshooting Wave B, which respected the 161.8% level almost to the cent.
We now expect a downward movement that should reach between the 78.6% and 100% levels. Upon closer inspection, we also assume that what we overshoot upward, we'll compensate for downward, a typical characteristic of an Expanded Flat. Therefore, the 78.6% to 100% range is seen as crucial and robust. The low of $3.56 must not be breached, which would be far from ideal. On the daily chart, we also note a Fair Value Gap above, which remains the only gap on this chart. Eventually, all such gaps get filled. The question remains: will we move towards $4.85 or $9.50 first?
Upon closer examination on the 4-hour chart, we've observed a four-wave structure since Wave B. Currently, we are respecting the 38.2% to 50% zone for Wave ((iv)) and remain below it. The scenario we believe in indicates a potential drop to $4.85. The timing is uncertain, and we may see some sideways movement for a while before experiencing a sharper decline. We've reached the 2.618 Fibonacci time zone, indicating a perfect setup for Wave (2). We've missed this by a day, but still anticipate a further decline, remaining within this golden zone.
Additional Fibonacci clusters lend further confirmation, therefore, we expect significant buying volume in the range of $4.85 to $3.56. This would be an intriguing entry point as we are at the end of Wave (2), predicting that the subsequent Wave (3) will surpass Wave (1). The peak of Wave B at $11.88 offers a solid target, potentially making this a very interesting long-term swing trade.