Yield Curve Control Goblin Capital presents you -- The most risky contrarian trade you can currently take --
Am I all in? Yes
Do I have children? No
Am I still young and not much to lose? Yes
Do I have a lot of bad debt? No
Will I financially recover if this trade goes South? Yes
Therefore, my dear Goblins: I urge you to only play with money that you are willing to lose. Please do not bet the house and the kids on this trade.
This will be the outcome you are betting on:
BOE — Recently reverted to Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to save its financial system, which will soon morph into YCC — more on this later.
BOJ — Continuing their policy of YCC in order to save their banking system and allow the government to borrow at affordable rates.
ECB — Continuing to print money to purchase the bonds of weak members of the EU, but has pledged to begin Quantitative Tightening (QT) soon — more on this later, too.
PBOC — Restarting the money printer in order to provide liquidity to the banking system to prop up the falling residential property market.
Fed — Continuing to raise interest rates and is shrinking its balance sheet via QT.
Source: A. Hayes, Medium article "Contagion"
See you in Dubai next summer.
Regards,
Hugo
Chief Executive Goblin
Goblin Capital
