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BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Up, Up And 12.5K. Going Higher?BTCUSD update: 12K reached as this market is pushing highs as I write. The reversal zone boundary at the 12100 area has also been compromised which is a sign that strength is likely to persist for now. Sure this is historical and will continue to attract more and more attention, which feeds these markets even more (positive feedback loop: google it). The only thing I can do as this market offers little opportunity for me right now is continue to measure and evaluate supports while observing price action. Little opportunity? It's going straight up! As I have explained many times, I do not buy highs. I follow my plan, not my fear because opportunity is an unlimited resource. I am curious to see how the futures affect the price action in a few days and would actually prefer to trade the futures instead because of the security and flexibility that the new contracts will offer, especially for shorter time frame strategies which is my specialty. In terms of levels at the moment, price is sitting on the 1.618 extension projected from the 8821 low. The next reasonable target is the 13237 level (1.0 projected from 8821) and then the 14700 which is the 1.618 extension projected from 8821 as well. The nearest support is the 11050 level which is the .382 of the recent bullish swing at the moment. As price continues higher, this level will continue to adjust higher as well. These levels serve as points of reference to keep expectations somewhat in line and offer short term targets. IF price breaks below the 11050 level, I will be anticipating further selling because the level is so shallow relative to the recent structure. Until something like that happens, there are NO reasons to sell or get short at the moment. It's funny because I read an article from a well known financial publication that actually mentioned the built in inconvenience to short these markets that the futures will address. In summary, times like this can easily get the best of your emotions and blind you to the amount of risk that is present at the moment. I believe the futures will bring more balance to this market, not drive it to 30K anytime soon. I do not fight markets, I just read the signs and adjust to what the market presents and will participate as long as it is within the boundaries of MY plan. If the market is not in line with my plan, it doesn't matter how high or low it goes, I will avoid it all together. Most importantly if you had the courage to get in recently, just make sure you have a well defined plan that will guide your decisions when this market turns because when it happens, it will be fast. Depending on others opinions to base your decisions on is a really bad idea. The type of market that we are in at the moment is rare, and can persist long enough to make the world believe that "it's different this time". This is why I day trade (other markets) because it doesn't matter what the market does, you simply adjust and trade. Comments and questions welcome. (Thank you everyone for the feedback from my previous report. It was very helpful).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
33
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 12K Around The Corner?BTCUSD update: This market is poised to push 12k after consolidating for about a half day, as the bullish momentum continues. Price is still within a potential reversal zone, but NOT enough of a reason to short. In my previous report, I wrote about the built in long bias coupled with the freedom from institutions. No one knows what is going to happen when the futures start trading, even the experts who set up new futures contracts have no idea. The sentiment of the crowd appears to view institutional involvement as a whole new wave of large buyers that will drive the market dramatically higher, but do not realize institutions trade in more complex ways. I believe this new level of complexity will facilitate a more balanced market which is not the most beneficial for short term retail traders. Before I get into the TA, think about this for a moment: A fund manager has a responsibility to his investors and wants to show a positive return, BUT that is not the only way fund managers get paid. They also charge management fees which are not performance based, but instead are incentivized by how much capital is under management. Wealthy investors invest more into instruments that are stable, and that show a consistent return over time. They invest less in wildly fluctuating markets like this. Futures and options can be used to create more stable performance which will attract more capital, which results in higher management fees. My point is this: This market will become a thick slow grind market, similar to the S&P 500 or EURUSD. It will offer opportunity as always, it just won't be as generous and easy as it is now. As of now, price is sitting in the middle of the reversal zone and still no signs of weakness which means both long and shorts are high risk at these levels. In terms of risk/reward, shorts would make more sense, BUT with no signal and no confirmation, there is no evidence based reason to be short. What to look for is reversal candles or patterns around or just under the 12k level, or a break below 10722 which is the .382 of the recent bullish swing. Until a bearish pattern appears, and until supports break, this market can continue higher. How high? If it breaks beyond the 12100, the next target extension is 12400 which is measured from the 7871 low. This is based on the structure that is in place at the moment. In summary, as short term traders, the BEST we can do is embrace what the market is telling us, whether we personally agree with it or not. I believe this market is in a bubble and will correct harshly once the fake tether situation unwinds, but that is an opinion that the market could care less about. I do not act on my opinions, I act on technical facts. Sure I want to be long as it goes higher, but I am not willing to take the risk at these levels. Even retraces are tough because they are so shallow relative to how far a fast this market has come along. So when I face so much conflict, I stay flat until the market presents an opportunity that is in line with my trading plan. It is my plan that keeps me out of trouble, and minimizes any impulse stimulated by these fast moving prices. When you are in this business for a long time, you learn that capital preservation is actually more important than capital gain. This is why I seek consistency rather than lottery tickets. If you cannot trade with any consistency, in time the profit you have now will be donated back to the market. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 10K? Game Of Musical Chairs.BTCUSD update: Hanging on all time highs of 9400 as I write this. The spot light has switched from ETH back to BTC. Are these markets going up forever? Not in a straight line. This price action is euphoric and is a great place to lock in profit, but not to initiate new positions, even in the face of a 10k possibility. I will explain why. It appears that the news that is driving this market is somewhat significant, like more governments adapting blockchain, etc, and that is great for the future of this technology in general. The problem is, as many newer traders do not realize, this rate of change is abnormal and unsustainable. The strength is clear and cannot be ignored, but my point is: do not get used to this. Stocks like Yahoo and AOL (when AOL was just AOL) also used to go up 100 points a day, and moved like that for about a year (back in 1999), and today they make headlines if they move 1 point. (I realize BTC is not a stock, but I am just illustrating a point). I make this point not to elicit more fear of missing out, but instead to provide a perspective to better manage expectations as this market matures and faces many changes like the upcoming futures contract, real institutional competition and regulation. The less experienced do not understand, institutional players have better information, much deeper pockets and can hire the best talent. They are smart money, and they are not entering this market to help the little guy. Be prepared for harder markets, especially on smaller time frames. One other point to keep in mind also is that a large number of U.S. investors are prevented from shorting these markets. Exchange platforms like GDAX (Coinbase) do not allow margin accounts for retail investors in the U.S. (I can't day trade this market short, even if I wanted to.) The futures market will not have such restrictions. That may help explain to some degree the imbalance in these markets as well. As of now, there are no signs of weakness. Higher highs, especially all time highs often signal further strength. I keep reading comments about people selling all their coins and feeling bad because the market is higher. Selling the top and buying the bottom are like hitting the lottery, low probability. Thinking that you are entitled to selling the top is like thinking you should win the lottery because you bought a ticket. As short term traders the goal is to achieve consistency in a way that is reasonable in terms of the risk we are willing to take. And repeat our process over and over. Not hit home runs. My next target on this market is the 9600 area. It comes from two 2.618 extensions that are almost overlapping between 9470 and 9575 so I will estimate it slightly higher. These extensions are measured from the 7871 and 6185 lows respectively. This is a great move if you are in. If you are not, then that's okay too. There is no need to get emotional. Even though I have a higher target projected and no weakness in sight, does not mean it can turn instantly without warning. That is why buying highs, especially in euphoric markets like this presents such a high risk. The market can keep going, but no one knows when it will turn. It is like a game of musical chairs (google it), if you are going to play, you better be quick to sit once the music stops. In summary, I am not buying highs. And even if I could short, I would not because I do not short strong markets. My plan forces me to wait for a sensible retrace which is elusive, but it will eventually present itself. 8825 is the closest support (.382 measured from the 7871 low). The next support after that is 7885 area which is the .382 measured from the 5400 low and a previous resistance. The best I can do is wait and see if price produces a reversal formation on a smaller time frame at one of these levels for a possible swing trade with risk that is sensible for MY plan. Otherwise I stay flat. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
46
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: One More Leg To 500+?ETHUSD update: 483 all time high touched which is just one point higher than the 482 extension target while this market is now consolidating and attempting to break higher. The next target extension is 516 based on the current structure in place. Some people (critics) seem to think I am making up these target numbers. Just to be clear, these extension numbers are based on a proportion of the current price structure. There is no guarantee that the price will stop and reverse at these levels, but there is a greater chance. These proportions tend to act as natural inflection points that the market "herd" is more likely to react to. Whether it is self fulfilling prophecy or not, these proportions are very relevant in these highly emotional markets. So for the critics: I am not making them up, the market is. That is where the new 516 target comes from. It is the 1.618 extension projected from the 395 low. Will this market actually get there in the next day or so? I am skeptical because 500 is a psychological level that can act as a barrier, but anything is possible. Since the 355 breakout, this market has been in the first leg of a large scale Wave 3. These waves are often powerful and to fit the rule, cannot be the shortest wave within the 5 wave sequence. You can see this more clearly on the weekly time frame. Once this initial leg is complete, Wave 2 should be a relatively larger retrace than this market has been showing since the break out. As long as price stays above the bottom of Wave 1 which is 280, then it will be setting up for a 3 of 3 which can take this market much higher over the next couple of months. The retrace can take a week or so to play out, not a couple of hours or days. The most relevant level is around the 408 area which happens to be the .382 of this entire bullish structure. Again it is important to be prepared for anything. IF for any reason this market goes below 280, then this wave count will be negated. I realize that almost sounds laughable at this point, I am just saying don't neglect that scenario completely. As far as WHEN this market will retrace and offer a buying opportunity, there is no way to forecast that. At the moment, there are no signs of weakness. Price consolidates for a half a day and then continues to new highs which is what it is poised to do at the moment. Moves like this are rare and are like lottery tickets, but rates of change this rapid are extreme and not sustainable. Normalcy will return, it always does, in every market. I will not buy highs. I have been saying that since 371 and here we are 100 points higher. I have seen moves like this before in other markets so I know how they play out. My plan is simple: Watch for a retrace, a reversal and go long at an attractive reward/risk. Based on the new high, I am watching the 450 support (.382 measured from 395), the 433 support (.382 measured from 350) and 408 (.382 measured from 286). The consolidation at the moment is setting up to continue higher rather than to any of these supports, so a break beyond 476 can also offer a day trade opportunity if you are willing to accept the risk. Keep in mind the bottom of the range is 454 which means you are looking at a max of around 20 points of risk to hopefully make 25 or more in a very short period of time. It's possible to figure out a tighter stop, but that is up to you. I am not day trading these markets and NOT willing to take the risk. In summary, relentlessly strong markets like this are tough to trade because you don't know where it will turn. For the less experienced who do not know, these kind of movements are not common and if you are in that's great. My point is this: do not let your expectations get warped by a low probability condition. If you do, you will most likely have blatant disregard for risk the next time something like this appears to be happening, and you will give your profits back in the much more numerous fake outs. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Next Stop 482 Extension?ETHUSD update: All time high made at the 458.96 level (Bitfinex) while the 437 extension was blown through as bullish momentum continues. Based on current market structure, 482 is the next target. And you wonder, when is the best time to buy? In my previous report I listed levels that I was looking for in order for a possible long. Were any of them reached? The best the market could offer was 400, which was 8 points higher than my closest support which was 392. If YOU were watching closely, there was a double bottom on a 30 minute chart that offered an attractive entry. The second low of that formation occurred at 1 AM EST. I am actually sleeping at that time so I could not update my report in order to let everyone know it was a good time to get in. And this is why I provide perspective and not a signal service. Since the double bottom occurred at 400, the 392 support could have been used as a good reference point for a stop with 437 as the target. (I wrote about 437 in my previous report). So you had enough information to assess reward/risk along with a formation. I am writing this to make the less experienced aware that they key to using my analysis is NOT waiting for trade calls, but instead to learn how to think on your own. My analysis provides perspective and levels as the title describes. I keep reading comments about how I don't take any trades. Taking the trades is up to YOU because a trade requires an assessment of risk which is different for everyone. Please understand as an author, I have a greater responsibility to the community. If I say "buy", a lot of people will buy, and if they lose, I feel partly responsible so my trade calls have to be extremely well selected in order for the risk to be at a level that I feel is low enough for the majority of less experienced traders to take. And after all that, the trade may still not work out, but at least I made every effort to select one that the risk was reasonable in terms of the conditions at the time. So my message: Do not depend on anyone's trade call, take initiative, assess the risk and take responsibility for your own decisions. If you say, "but I am new, and that is why I am on here, looking for trade calls.", then you will not be successful in the long run if your plan is to blindly follow others. On to analysis! Based on the current structure, 433 (.382 measured from 392 low) is the nearest support which is very shallow and has a better chance of breaking, but since this market is so strong, it may be a level to consider upon a retest. A more reasonable and likely support is the 417 area which is now the .382 support measured from the 350 low. A retrace into this area, followed by a reversal formation would offer attractive reward/risk since the low 400's can be used as a reference for a stop. And if price retraces further, then the 392 support is the next level I would consider since it is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the 286 low. The next target is 482 and is a 2.618 extension projected from the 348 low. Also depending on how far this market retraces, the 461 area can be used as a target as well. With these levels, you have enough information to assemble a swing trade IF the market presents the opportunity (like it had at the 400 level). In summary, there is probably news out there that is driving this market higher. I do not need to know what it is in order to trade on the short term. The strength is clear, but don't forget, these markets are highly irrational, and often manipulated in ways that are different from traditional markets. There is no reason to be emotional, or feel bad for missing the relentless rally. The great thing about any financial market is opportunity is an unlimited resource because "history repeats itself" (which is a basic tenet of TA). Be flexible, watch for reversals, and most importantly understand your risk. Highs are better to take profit, not initiate positions. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
44
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: How Much Higher?ETHUSD update: All time high of 418 reached and not too far from the 437 extension. Since the break beyond the 355 range resistance, this market has been making significant progress as far as attempting to clear the big picture range. Why 437? I will explain. In my previous report, I wrote about the 371 target, and what this market had to do in order to reach the 392 level and beyond. The problem is this market refuses to retrace to a more attractive support level for a swing trade long based on MY strategy. Before this new high, I wrote about a retest of the 335 level, but the market chose 350 instead. Keep in mind I cannot monitor these markets and update my reports 24 hours a day (as some people on here seem to expect hehe). I constantly explain the ability to be flexible and nimble is required to navigate these markets, especially on smaller time frames. If you cannot figure out how to spot a higher low on your own, then you should not be trading real money. The purpose behind my analysis is to provide a perspective, or a context to help you make better decisions, NOT to make decisions for you. As of now, this market is sitting on the highs. What is reasonable to expect from here? MY plan is to wait for a retrace and attempt to buy for a swing trade long. AGAIN, if my levels are not reached, then I can't force a trade. You must decide if the risk makes sense for you and your plan IF the market ONLY offers a shallow retrace like it has been doing since the 330 breakout. I write these reports based on the risk that is appropriate for MY plan, just to be clear (I understand the majority of the community understands this, I just have to write this for the limited few who don't). Here are the levels I am waiting for: 392 which is the previous peak (old resistance, new support), 384 which is the .382 support measured from the 350 low and IF this market retraces further than that, then I will be watching the 370 to 360 support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the 350 low also. If I can manage to get long, I will be looking for this market to make a run for the 437 target (1.618 extensions measured from the 350 low). These proportions are based on market structure and is why they offer somewhat reliable estimates. At the rate this market is moving, it may NOT retest the projected supports any time soon. My plan forces me not to buy highs and wait for supports. If it retraces to a more shallow level, and the risk is within your plan, then you have to make the adjustment. I will do my best to report any adjustments to the levels that I see. One other observation about the current situation is this: I can count 5 waves starting at the 286 low. 5 waves on top of price pushing through a 1.618 extension (406) in a vertical line is often a recipe for a retrace. Just another reason not to buy these highs, and instead lock in some profit if you have been holding from much lower prices. TO BE CLEAR, I am waiting for a retrace that may not happen, I am NOT calling for a major correction. This market is likely in a large scale Wave 3 which is very bullish. In summary, this market is making significant progress as far as breaking out of the large consolidation it has been gyrating within for weeks. All time highs signal more strength to come, but also present higher risk of retrace. I am waiting for the retrace, because that is what MY plan calls for. I do my best to share observations and levels that are useful, but if you do not have a well defined strategy and process of evaluating risk, then no analysis will help you. If you cannot make decisions and accept responsibility, then you should not trade. Either find a signal service, or pay a trader to trade for you, that is my suggestion. Comments and questions welcome. (The community has been doing an excellent job of answering many questions for me. I try go through them and answer as many as I can. If you can't wait, then please PM me).
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
29
Bitcoin - Fibonacci levels & ExtensionsBitcoin hit ATH not long ago and broke the $6000 psychological area. With a little bit of backtesting we can see that Bitcoin tends to retrace back to previous structure and these areas just so happen to be precise fibonacci levels as seen in the analysis. Broke $3000 -> back to $1850 | 0.5 fib Broke $4990 -> back to $3000 | 0.618 fib So whats next? Well, my predictions are the following: With backtesting BTC I can see a retracement back to 0.382 - $4957 area before buyers load up again for new ATH's and test the fib extensions I've drawn: 1.272 @ $7045 and 1.618 @ $8147. Text in bold has yet to happen Broke $3000 -> back to $1850 | 0.5 fib Broke $4957 -> back to $3000 | 0.618 fib Broke $6180 -> back to $4957 | 0.382 fib Breaks 7000$ -> back to $6180? This is my previous Bitcoin analysis which was mainly done for fun but it respected it perfectly and started peeling at my target. Can also be found down below. Check out my other Crypto ideas in the Related Ideas tab. Don't forget to like & Follow Happy Trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Goztrak
2
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Euphoria Prices.BTCUSD Update: New high made at 5420 which is just above the 5385 level which happens to be the 1.618 extension of the entire recent bullish swing. This is pure greed and euphoria in action, and for those who do not know yet, a hot market usually cannot sustain this rate of momentum. I have been cautious up to these highs and I am staying away from any new swing trades in this market at these levels. Yes, new all time highs are certainly a bullish sign, but risk of retrace is way too high at the moment. Based on the current structure, the first reasonable level for a normal retracement is 4914 (.382 of current bullish swing). Price can retrace to this level and this trend would still be intact. And the 4914 is a minor support, because the structure measured is the most recent swing. IF this level is broken, 4437 is the next reasonable level for a retest (.382 of entire bullish swing). This is the level is where I would like to see price stabilize and show reversal patterns for a possible swing trade opportunity. As long as price maintains this level, an attempt to retest the high would be within reason and worth taking the risk in my opinion (IF the market offers the opportunity). The fact that price has gone up so quickly after working its way to the 5K level is a bearish sign because often this is when the majority of the "active" crowd is long. To be more specific, "majority of the active crowd" means the current population of investors who are trading in and out of this market regularly (which is a relatively small market) and when this crowd is mostly long, bullish momentum is likely to dry up. This is what I mean when I use the EXPRESSION "There is no one left to buy" which is not to be taken literally. The size of the candle on the larger time frames is what points to this condition. People have been writing to me about being short, and this is a very tough market to outright short. One way to consider benefiting from a significant retrace would be to buy alt coins against BTC. In theory they should rise as BTC gets cheaper. This is an investment strategy which means buy and hold. I do not have any specific recommendations as far as which alt coins to choose, but I would say if you own alt coins, now would be a good time to add to your core positions since they will be cheap relative to BTC. In summary, it will be interesting to see how investors behave after the forks are out of the way next week. As these markets mature, the coin relationships will change. Just like a month ago when BTC sold off, everything followed, and that relationship has slowly unwound, but that does not mean it won't come back. As traders we cannot expect anything (especially in these markets) to be fixed, or consistent when it comes to relationships. This is why technical analysis is so helpful because no matter what happens, price will still find support and resistance, it will still trend, and it will unfold in formations that offer some clues as to where price is more likely to go next. It is all a matter of evaluating new information and adjusting. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
BTC 6k Elliot Wave TheoryI see a 5 wave Elliot Wave Theory completed at 5k with an A-B-C retracement that took us down to 3k. This is when Dimon and friends called bear and started buying. It looks like we completed the retracement and are now in the middle of another 5 wave bull. Using fibonacci levels extended from our old ATH of 5k to our low on this retracement of 2950, the 1.68 puts us right around 6k for the top of this wave. For waves 4 and 5 on my chart, I literally copied and pasted wave 4 and 5 from our run to 5k, to get a similar size and feel for the length and duration of the waves, and it also lined us up at around 6k. Sorry for the short analysis but I would put stop losses around 4750-4900 and start taking profit above 5750-5900. Happy Trading and Good Luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Meteorite777
Bullish consolidation for LTCUSD pairing, retest of ATH?Bull flag in the form of an ascending triangle. Entry point is placed just above current resistance at ~$82.50. Looks like bulls want retest the $100 mark, so profit targets are set at key resistance levels as they correspond to the Fibonacci retracement (78.6% and 100% respectively) from the most recent all-time high (GDAX: $98.28). The $77 price point correlates to the 38.2% retracement level, and has served as solid floor of support for a few days. Stop losses should be place just below this support, as a drop below here will break two short-term uptrend lines - and could signal a retest of lower levels of support (key support at $64). Stop: $77.00 Entry: $83.00 PT1: $90.00 PT2: $98.00
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by tl93
2