United Continental Holdings Inc (UAL) - Head and Shoulders SHORTAirline stocks have been poor performers, despite the short term pullback in crude oil recently experienced.
UAL's peers seem to be in an downtrend and with the formation of the head and shoulders formation, any break of the neckline would indicate a short.
Additionally on the chart above we have the MACD turning negative , RSI falling and a daily squeeze pushing to the downside.
Previously similar price action has played out with price breaking from $86.00 and finding support at $78.00
Airlines
JET: Ready for take-offJET was by far my best performing stock for 2017/2018, and my first 5 bagger.
Chart looks like it's ready for a move again. Similar price action to this time, last year.
Resistance at 0.75 to 0.80 but that is still some nice gains if you can get a stink bid filled as tax loss season ends.
NDQ: AAL American Airlines 28 day ascending triangle NASDAQ:AAL the 28 day ascending triangle is not a very strong trend that i will usually trade. There's a strong resistance at $40.47, if we manage to turn this resistance into support, I target at $44.13.
Stop-loss: $37.78
For safer entry, a break with confirmation above $40.47 will give a better risk reward.
A break below SL will nullify this bullish take.
Airlines: Ready to take off Jets is a ETF of multiple airlines. ALK is Alaska Airline which was a huge winner since 2010 but has now had a fairly long sideways consolidation. I think they both are primed to go up again. If buy now you could use any daily close <then the current weekly low as a stop.
some authors notes:
seekingalpha.com
seekingalpha.com
Consider buying DLAKY Good opportunity here to see price movement. Lufthansa has dropped by -5.61% since the last trading day.
The average target price for this stock calculated by the analysts is €31.10 (provided that market is in bull mode).
Deutsche Lufthansa has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 8.5 and P/CF is 4.5 (which is better than the industrial sector average)
Deutsche Lufthansa is an inspired choice for value investor!
I don't assess much risk of plummeting, but markets are not reasonable now. So be cautious when bears again dominate the market.
Price might fall down to 20EUR in the worst case (20% loss)
*Investments can go up as well as down and involve the risk of loss."
Adding to Air Canada PositionAC.TO trading at a PE of under 4x heading into holiday sales figures after their annual report could pull them back up from this clean support line touch in today's session. I already have a position of AC starting around $22.00 and will be using this pull-back to add to my position.
Potential Inflection Point for Air Canada
Good morning all, I hope your weekend was spent well and are ready for another trading week.
Air Canada is my favourite stock pick of the year, I was long at $21 a couple of months back and I have seen a solid 26% gain. However, I feel as though we are in for a trend reversal. I still like where I own the stock and will be buying on pullbacks. I can see this chart going one or two ways.
First, AC will have a pullback towards its 50day moving average and continue its up-trend going forward. The stochastic RSI is showing underbought symbols, however, what puzzles me is the potential convergence/divergence point in the MACD indicator, its been bouncing along giving weak buy signals and that is making me question the strength of this up-trend.
I would either hedge Air Canada with a few medium-term put options, enter short, or buy the dip. This one can truly go either way.
Stay sharp out there.
October 25 Earnings: Alaska Air - Bankruptcy & PRASMAlaska Air has been absent from the recent airlines rally as the company struggles to regain momentum after weather related issues.
The company's integration of Virgin Airways is a mega-plus for the Airline after organic routes kept coming under weather-related pressures.
It's recent venture with Singapore Air will be another plus for the Airline's Asia connection flights.
However, rising costs are likely going to dampen profits and margins, worth taking note of but not enough to outweigh pros.
Recent pilot union deal, higher Virgin Air merging costs and 12% higher fuel costs are a further "downer" for the quarter.
I am starting the company with an $85.00 PT for an extended 2-3 month post-earnings move.
A stop at $75, near recent lows is subject to post-earnings review.
October 18 Earnings: United Airlines-Hurricanes, Expenses & FuelUnited Airlines has its second largest hub in Houston, Texas where 7,400 flights were canceled over the course of the Hurricane.
The company expects PRASM to decrease 3.5% to 4% due to impact from the Hurricane.
Slightly higher fuel prices should impact YoY comparisons even if an overall edge is still present.
I believe the company's higher expenses, catastrophe PRASM loss and high YoY comparison will hurt the quarter.
I'm starting United Airlines with a $58 PT for the post earnings move.
October 11 Earnings: Delta Airlines - Fuel, Fuel, FuelAll major airlines have enjoyed solid financial upbeat since Oil $USOIL has remained under $50/barrel.
Delta Airlines has subsequently hiked their dividend throughout the quarter and increased share buybacks.
The company is also committed to paying down debt while financial conditions allow for it.
The ITIA's latest data reports a Load Factor of 84.7% - Optimistic readings for airlines.
Traffic growth remains high at 6.8% as more people take to the skies and shipping increases.
I believe this quarter will be bullish for airlines following the summer season.
I'm starting Delta Airlines with a $55.00 PT for the post-earnings price action.
SpiceJet - Set for another rise ?Just saw Spice Jet breakout from downward resistance line with a bullish engulfing candlestick and RSI rising.
Currently trading above its EMA 30 which should act as a support level.
With Crude under severe pressure we can see airline stocks like these benefit with low oil prices.
Trading strategy :
Buy @ CMP 108 levels
Target :123
Stop loss : below 100
Happy trading.
American Airlines Losing Some AltitudeAmerican Airlines has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has moved down after hitting resistance. The stock is currently at this point of resistance and should follow suit by moving down. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.8724. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is not necessarily at an overbought point, but it has been trending lower since December. During this downtrend, the RSI has failed to break through this resistance. The RSI is currently at this point of resistance. If the RSI fails to move above it, the stock could begin its downward movement in the near-term. This is the first indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 12.0840. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been trending up, but its upward movement is starting to stall. This stall is the second indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1147 and the negative is at 0.7578. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive indicator has stayed above the negative indicator for almost two months. This won't last forever, but as long as the positive stays above the negative this could slow any drop in the stock.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 85.2360 and D value is 64.3122. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock's current bull trend has naturally cycled up and down to get from bottom to top. During this current trend channel, the current stochastic level has served as a top and the stock dropped. On March 30, the stock fell over 4% over the next 3 trading days. On May 11, the stock fell 6% over the next 5 trading days. This is the third indicator of potential near-term downward movement.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the next 20 trading days if not sooner.