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Agricultural Commodities

Soybeans will take off with inflationI see a sharp ramp up in commodities after Powell's presser on Friday when the inflation metrics come out and he sends a Dovish message (not hawkish enough). The dollar will end up turning back up this summer so I see this upward trend momentarily until after the FED goes in with CBDC's and then commodities will take off. At that point I doubt stocks will exist so I would just caution you to buy freeze-dried food and some precious metals because a Global Depression is coming.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by EmptyEternity
Buy Coffee Day Enterprises LtdCoffee Day Enterprises Ltd. which runs cafe chain with brand name Cafe coffee day is trading at a current price of 53.2 rupees but it's book value is 146. Its around 2.744 times book value. The company is running and generating profit even after the death of its founder years back. It shows that the management of the company is keen to take the company to new heights. Hope you love my analysis. Please invest after your own analysis. Do like and follow. Thank you.
NSE:COFFEEDAYLong
by ronak16125
SOYBEANS Excellent buy opportunity.Soybeans (ZS1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since early 2023 just last week, it almost hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). So far the price has reacted with a minor rebound, while the 1D RSI has been on a major Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows). This is the best buy signal since the May 31 2023 bottom where again after an RSI Bullish Divergence, the price rebounded aggressively to the 0.618 Fib on a +12.56% rally. So far within this long-term Channel Down, we have had similar rebounds of +12.56%, +14.26% and +11.86%. Assuming the minimum of +11.86%, we are setting a Target on Soybeans at 1263'5, which may almost make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the natural technical Resistance since April 24 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by TradingShot
CORN Excellent 4-month buy opportunity.Corn's (ZC1!) price action since the COVID recovery in early 2020 is showcasing an amazing resemblance with the previous full Cycle of 2009 - 2014. This is better illustrated on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Both started the Bull phase on a roughly +175% rebound on the 17 year Support Zone, topping on a Higher Highs (which was a Bearish Divergence with the Lower Highs of the 1M RSI) and then declined both astonishingly by -51.93%. This is where the market is at now. In 2014 the price rebounded by +28.78% back above the 1W MA50 marginally and just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the long-term decline to the 17 year Support Zone. As a result, this presents an excellent 4-month buy opportunity with 506'4 as the Target (+28.78%). Notice also that the 1M RSI is on the exact same level (33.75) as it was on the January 2014 Low, and is reversing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TradingShot
Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6. NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast. The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report. The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months. Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Pandorra
[COCOA] Cacao timing to take the correctionCurrently, the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (cacao) market has undergone a notable upside rally over recent days, culminating in a significant move towards the $6000 level. Today, we observed a precise hit of this key psychological level, followed by a clean rejection, prompting a short position. The primary objective now is to remain below this crucial $6000 level, aiming to capitalize on a potential correction in the recent upward surge. By maintaining short positions, we aim to capture the potential downside movement with a relatively small risk, yet the possibility of a substantial gain. Initially, the trade unfolded favorably, with the price action aligning with our short position. However, subsequent movement saw a retracement back towards the entry level, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving market conditions. As we await further price action, it's imperative to remain attentive to developments in the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA market. Tomorrow's movements will provide valuable insights into the durability of the recent rejection and the potential continuation or reversal of the prevailing trend. In navigating this trade, maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring key levels and indicators will be crucial. While the potential for a significant win exists, it's essential to manage risk effectively and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
1
WHEAT Bearish pressure under the 1D MA50 and MA200.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattenr since July 2022. The price is currently on a bearish sequence below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It appears that technically this is a Bearish Leg following the December 06 2023 Lower High rejection, similar to the one that started on the October 10 2022 Lower High. That sequence reached the Channel Down bottom on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our long-term Target is 455'7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TradingShot
Descending Wedge & Bullish Divergence on March SoybeansFundamental Outlook: There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean crop has also improved. Talking Technicals: Despite the bearish fundamental outlook - the descending wedge, bullish divergence on 14-day RSI, and declining volume profile presents a bullish setup. Managed money funds remain aggressively short - holding a net-short position greater than 150,000 contracts across futures and options on soybeans. An upside breakout could result in short-covering, ultimately propelling prices higher in the near-term. Descending wedge patterns typically see sharp, upside breakouts which would be akin to the price action observed in a short-covering rally. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:WEATLong
by Maximus20000
Where is the bottom for soybeans? Soybean futures are off to a rough start in 2024. In the first week of trading, March soybeans were down nearly 42 cents on the back of beneficial rains sweeping Central Brazil. Selling pressure permeated into Monday’s session as well, with soybeans trading down into the mid 1230’s. So, the question now becomes, will March soybeans make new contract lows? Fundamental Snapshot : Monday’s lower price action is not all that surprising considering U.S. export inspections for soybeans were reported at 675k metric tons - below average trade estimates. Meanwhile, Brazil has been exporting both corn and soybeans at record paces each of the past two years, and is expected to have a record or near-record soybean crop this year as well. Wednesday, CONAB will release data pertaining to their estimations of corn and soybeans. Currently, they are less optimistic about the state of the Brazilian soybean crop than the USDA, and USDA will release their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations report on Friday. If we see sweeping downward adjustments to production estimates from both CONAB and USDA, it may help soybeans find a bottom. However, if the market is disappointed in the data released this week, we may see soybeans test 1200 sooner rather than later. Technical Outlook : After last week’s precipitous drop, it was surprising that March beans failed to enter oversold territory. However, it did not take long to break into OS territory on Monday’s session. The head-and-shoulders pattern that’s developed over the past fiscal quarter has a difference of approximately $1.20/bu, which puts an operative price target between 1198 and 1208. That also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level between the mid-June lows and late-July highs. Markets can stay in overbought/oversold territory for extended periods of time, so if data disappoints this week, we may see the head-and-shoulders reach its price target. However, a positive reception to fundamental data this week may serve as a launching pad for soybeans to start moving higher. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
WHEAT Struggling on the 1D MA200. Long-term sell opportunity.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since July 2022 and since early December has failed repeatedly to detach itself above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Since it is closer to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern and it resembles the February 14 High, we expect a strong selling sequence if the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The previous Lower Low was priced on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension from the Lower High. That gives us a projected target of 413'0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TradingShot
1