clean wheat prices went perfectly to the zone which i had previously marked down, after displacing the upper zone.
now waiting for an entry, i uploaded what i think could be a future push up.
Agricultural Commodities
It’s trading wheaty (pretty) high now...Continuing the topic of spreads between related commodities, the Hard Red Winter Wheat – Soft Red Winter Wheat spread is another one trading at an extreme level now.
A brief explanation on the different types of wheat we are referring to here:
1) The Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW) is the most widely grown class of wheat. A high protein product, used for breads, some types of Asian noodles and general-purpose flour.
2) The Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) is the third largest class of wheat variety grown in the US, lower protein wheat used in producing confectionary products such as cookies, crackers, and other bread products.
Generally, the HRW Wheat Futures (KE) trades at a premium to the SRW Wheat Futures (ZW) due to the higher protein content, however other factors such as production levels and supply demand dynamics may disrupt this spread, as seen from the wide range it has been trading since 1977.
Currently, this spread is trading close to 132 cents, with only one instance where it has traded higher, which was in March 2011 when this spread reached an all-time high of 164.
We attribute the spread trading at a high now due to the following 2 reasons:
1) The 2022 HRW production is currently the lowest on record since 1963, due to widespread droughts across many of the HRW production regions.
2) The average protein content of the 2022 yield is higher than last year, as well as the average of the past 5 years, resulting in a higher quality crop.
As a result, HRW is trading at a premium as supply shortage and a higher quality product pushes the price higher, while SRW sees average production and quality.
While it is challenging to assess the production levels and quality for the next season, from a risk reward perspective, we see an opportunity here. The past few spread peaks have been clearly marked out by Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing oversold. With the 10-year average for the spread at 6.3 cents and the RSI now oversold, we lean bearish on the spread.
Referencing the average of the past 3 declines at 150 cents and lasting 511 days, we could set out trade levels.
If the historical pattern holds this time, a conservative target of 120 cents and a trade length of 500 days points us to the 15-cent level. We see the current set-up as an opportunistic one, with similar episodes in the past pointing lower. CME also has the synthetic KC HRW Wheat-Wheat Intercommodity Spread, which can be used to express the same view and is financially settled.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Sources:
www.uswheat.org
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
www.usda.gov
Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum
Type: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 671.75
Pivot: 661.50
Support: 632.50
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the support line at 632.50 where the 50% fibonacci line is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back up to retest the pivot at 661.50, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ZC1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for ZC1! is bearish. To add confluence to this, price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 662.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is located. Stop loss will be at 685.25, slightly above where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is located. Take profit will be at 632.00, where the 50% Fibonacci line is located.
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Wheat Cash CFD Trade Plan - Long & Short Hello Traders;
Wheat Cash CFD - Globalprime
Trade Plan.
Long / Buy Trade.
Entry Level on break on upper support blue line @ 810.92 to 794.79
Take Profit 1 @ Daily Resistance / FIB 23.6% Level 855.86
Take Profit 2 @ 4 Hour Resistance / FIB 38.2% level 938.27
Take Profit 3 @ 1 Hour Resistance zone / FIB 61.80% level 1063.56
Stop Loss @ Daily Support Level / FIB 0 % Level 728.20
Lot Size :
Portfolio Size 10000
Risk to Reward 1 : 1
Lot size 7 units @ 5% Risk
TP 1 = Total PIPS in gain = 81.18 Profit 7.73 %
TP 2 = Total PIPS in gain = 143.48 Profit 18.31%
TP 3 = Total PIPS in gain = 268.77 Profit 33.95%
Total PIPS in Stop loss = 66.59 Loss 8.24%
Short / Sell Trade.
Entry Level on break on Lower support Red line @ 787.73 to 784.71
Take Profit 1 @ Daily Support / FIB 0.% Level 728.20
Take Profit 2 @ Daily Support at 675.89
Take Profit 3 @ Daily Support at 610.30
Stop Loss @ Daily Support Level / FIB 23.60% Level 855.86
Lot Size :
Portfolio Size 10000
Risk to Reward 1 : 1
Lot size 8 units @ 5% Risk
TP 1 = Total PIPS in gain = 56.86 Profit 6.82 %
TP 2 = Total PIPS in gain = 107.84 Profit 13.62%
TP 3 = Total PIPS in gain = 174.41 Profit 21.97%
Total PIPS in Stop loss = 71.98 Loss 9.25%
Regards
Base drop base - what's next?I think the price is in a zigzag pattern, and the next wave will be another drop. Bullish, than bearis
All set to hit $105?Looks like it wants to cross the $100 and collapse for a double bottom next year.
CoffeePlease note that this translation was done using Google Translate.
I think coffee will show long-term growth.
Financial Wave. COFFECOFFEE
We love coffee, so we look the dynamics of its price.)
In previous reviews, we considered the possibility of coffee rising from $170-180, the price went a little bit lower, but the structure is still in line with our preferable scenario. Growth in wave (5) will bring the price to a new high, the first intermediate target of $200. Fixing the price below $160 will change our view of coffee.
Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum
Type: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 672.50
Pivot: 677.25
Support: 661.50
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight price had bearish momentum downwards with price currently trading at 666.50 at time of writing. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the support line at 661.50 where the previous swing low and 100% Fibonacci lines are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back up and head towards the 1st resistance at 672.50 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cocoa looking sweet for upside to $26.90Cocoa formed a W Formation (Simple).
Price broke up and out of the sideways range and now looks like it's going to $26.90
RSI also broke out of its down divergence showing bullish momentum.
Looks good.
Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum
Type: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 699.50
Pivot: 687.75
Support: 672.50
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the support line at 672.50 where the swing low is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may rise back up and head towards the pivot at 687.75, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
COFFEE Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE has been going down
For some time now and has lost 35,5%
From the recent highs, so I think
That coffee is oversold and as it is
About to retest the horizontal support
I think that the rebound is imminent
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Wheat crisis solved?I'm not reading too much about the politics, but the price suggest for me that the mini wheat crisis is solved. More possible drop in the cards.
Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum
Type: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 699.50
Pivot: 706.50
Support: 675.00
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is under the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight price had bearish momentum downwards with price currently trading at 682.75 at time of writing. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the support line at 675.00 where the 78.6% Fibonacci projection line and 0% Fibonacci lines are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back up and head towards the 1st resistance at 699.50 where the 78.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Cotton shortPrimary trend changed recently, supporting the short side. All other comments are on the chart.
COTTON // short idea in a nice short trendCOTTON is going south. There was a stop at a weekly technical zone, but it was broken badly, so I assume price is heading south towards the next weekly zone.
Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️
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ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter.
WE JUST REACT!
Remember that trading is a business.
SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion!
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Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum
Type: Bullish Momentum
Resistance: 715.25
Pivot: 706.50
Support: 675.00
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Overnight price had bullish momentum upwards with price currently trading at 693.2 at time of writing. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the Pivot line at 706.4 where the previous high and 100% Fibonacci line are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back down to retest the support line at 675.00, where the 100% and 0% Fibonacci lines are located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat - ZW | Long IdeaHere I lay out my trade idea for Wheat.
Given Global Macro events, technical patterns and indicators, I see a long here.
3:1 RR
1% Risked.
Let's see where this goes!
ZC1!10.29.22 The chart is framed for a long trade in coffee. I will be looking for evidence of BUYERS On Monday. I discussed the details here.
CORN SELL IDEACorn has been on a downtrend for some time and this bear market is yet to complete. From analysis I predict further from current zone to the green lined zones currently below market.
Trade at your own risk, I am not a financial advisor, just someone who shares ideas and planned personal trades!
Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum Title: Corn Futures ( ZC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Momentum
Type: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 680.25
Pivot: 661.20
Support: 674.00
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confirmation to this bias, price is under the ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Overnight price had a bearish momentum downwards and closed below the 1st resistance line at 680.25 where the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. Expecting price to continue bearish and head towards the 1st support at 674.00 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back up to retest the 1st resistance level
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumTitle: Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum
Type: Bullish Momentum
Resistance: 698.50
Pivot: 661.20
Support: 680.25
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. Overnight price had a small bearish retracement downwards. However, if this overall bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue bullish and head towards the 1st resistance at 698.50 where the previous high and 2 x 100% Fibonacci lines are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may go back down and close below the 1st support line at 680.25 where the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located, and head towards the pivot at 661.50, where the previous swing low is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
