Apple has trapped buyers ?See the green UMVD which is now turning purple, that means divergence - Now we are below RED TrapZone and if we get RED UMVD now AFTER DIVERGENCE - We will start selling further Down.
AAPL
AMD?interesting chart. i have the AVWAP at the 52 week low showing confluence with the support trend line. after earnings and fed speak we broke out the channel. were coming close to geting above the 0.68 fib retrace from last high 132/133ish area.
were also tradin above the 200-100-50 moving averages
that can also be a giant bull flag and cup and handle and all those measured moves take you to key areas. idk if it gets there or when. but just a text book looking chart right now.
Diamond on $AAPL at an elliot wave inflexion point?Firstly, I believe that AAPL, much like SPX, is setting itself up for a Wave 4 correction.
A few points on this.
In principle, because my count includes a relatively simple zig-zag for SubW2, we should have something different such as I mention to comply with the principle of elliot wave alternation.
This could be a triangle pattern or a flat correction for instance.
We can see that there is a significant multi-year divergence in place and I believe this to be a possible confirmatory signal. In fact, it seems to me that AAPL never recovered it's RSI from the end of the tech bubble.
So, one of the divergences is 2 decades long.
The most important one however has been in place since 2020.
This is still significant.
RSI divergences are seen as confirmatory signals for the end of moves because Wave 5's are supposed to end with divergences.
That is, the final subwave 5 of a move should print a lower RSI reading than the subwave 3 on any given timeframe.
As you can see there are quite a few divergences in place on the 2W chart.
My view, although I have no short position yet, is that these divergences could be setting up an end to the bull-run for AAPL (at least until a recovery emerges) and interestingly, they coincide with readings on other stocks and indices.
If we zoom in down to daily we can see that there is a significant wedge pattern forming off the 2022 selloff alongside a nasty 7 year RSI divergence.
Drilling-down further displays a diamond pattern and an upside gap roughly at the level 192 and there is a clear RSI divergence that led to the recent selloff.
I think that even if you don't believe a multi-year bear market may be on the cards, that the weight of evidence definitely suggests that AAPL is going to risk off in the near future and implies caution more than anything else.
You can ask of course, what AAPL has to do to invalidate this outline.
Well, that's the problem.
Even if AAPL makes new highs, it would not necessarily violate every aspect of this outline because there are factors in-play on multiple timeframes.
That is to say, even if the diamond is invalidated (which would require new highs), it does not necessarily invalidate the broader long-term outline or any of the substantial divergences.
In fact if we look at the wedge on 4h, that does say that there is some room to grind higher (but the wedge does not specifically demand this to fulfil that part of the outline).
However... the time to discovering what actually happens is only a few months (I consider Spring to be real moment-of-truth).
So although there might be some upside to this (Say, to the 200 level) that does not necessarily invalidate any part of the outline, the actual time involved in that upside is not a particularly long timeframe.
So even if the diamond only leads to a short selloff (or is outright invalidated), and the price resumes it's bull trend then, the wedge suggests that this could only be for a few months.
And of course none of the invalidates the overall wave count or the significant divergences in place.
So even if the short-term bear outline is wrong, the longer-term one may not necessarily be.
That is why I consider this outline to be compelling and why, even if you aren't looking to short it, that it could be a poor long investment going forwards and if I was an AAPL holder (I haven't owned AAPL since about 2015), I would wait for it to clear-out these outlines before I was prepared to jump back in.
Apple - Watch The TrendlineHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Apple.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting all the way back in 2010, Apple created its first major higher timeframe break and retest. For many years we saw the same pattern on Apple stock which was simply a trendline rejection and a horizontal break and retest. With the recent breakout and retest I do expect more continuation towards the upside away from the confluence level I mentioned in the video.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
✨❄️🌟 The Tutorial How-To Find a Magic on TradingViewFinancial markets just finished its memorial 2023.
Whatever the numbers at the “Closing bell”, on your monitors and in your portfolios, there is no doubt that 2023 year’s Santa Rally will go down in history as one of the most outstanding in many years.
In November and December, 2023 the U.S. stock market was rallying for the 9th consecutive week in a row.
This was the longest ever upside streak in SP:SPX over the past 20 years, since the fourth quarter of 2003.
Well.. just try to answer what happened with the market the past one time.
Happy New 2024 Year!
✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠
Friendly Reminder You Don't Own Enough Bitcoin.
The Dawn of the Final ETF Approval Week - Everything will change.
Bitcoin will obliterate Apple returns
Bitcoin will obliterate SPY returns
Bitcoin will obliterate Gold returns
Bitcoin will obliterate Silver Returns
Anything plugged into Bitcoin related or touching bitcoin will be rocket launched into an entire new global standard.
I have come to the conclusion that smart money will enter this first being convinced of a new turning of the way we will live life in the next century meaning they will move first.
At the $200,000 mark many will sell calling the top
(you will know they're wrong due to zero on chain data proving this top)
I suspect after $300,000 appears in a short period the first batch of doubters will start to enter the market.
After $600,000 is breached there will be motions moving and outrage to shut Bitcoin down calling it the next "2009" the next Mortgage backed securities"
(This will cause major short interest and major Puts following the consensus that this is a bubble and not a supply shock)
Reaching the $1,500,000 people short and call writers will be entering margin call territory.
Remember the hard critics of Bitcoin who will give in around the $1,500,000 - $2,500,000 mark over the next years, this will mark the start of the extended bear market.
So the question is do you own enough Bitcoin?
SHORT | AAPL NASDAQ:AAPL
TP1: 182.94$
TP2: 177$
EMA Lines: The price has recently crossed below both the EMA9 and EMA20, which are often used as short-term and medium-term trend indicators, respectively. This could be a bearish signal suggesting that the price may continue to decline.
Support Levels: There are target prices marked on the chart, with Target Price 1 at $181.42 and Target Price 2 at $177.57. These may represent technical support levels, where the price might find a floor and potentially bounce back if the downward trend continues.
Trend Lines: There's a long-term upward trend line that the price has not yet reached, which could act as a major support level in the future.
Bollinger Bands: The price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, which sometimes is interpreted as the stock being oversold. Some traders might expect a rebound off this level, while others may wait for confirmation of a reversal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is below 40 and is heading towards the oversold territory, which is considered to be below 30. This suggests that there may be a potential for the stock to become oversold, indicating a possible buying opportunity if other conditions are favorable.
Price Action: The latest candles show a bearish trend with the price decreasing. The large red candlesticks indicate strong selling pressure.
All Eyes On Apple as it Tests 2021 HighsAll Eyes On Apple as it Tests 2021 Highs
Today Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is testing the following:
1. Dec 2021 Highs
(no sustained increase in value since then)
2. The 200 day moving average
3. The Diagonal Support Line
This means that in 24 months Apple has not made any significant or sustained gains. Apple needs to bounce here or it will lose three very important levels of support.
You can clearly see that we may have a short term double top too.
If we lose support here look to the 200 week moving average....
Lets see what happens
PUKA
AAPL TA 1-5-24 + MACRO OUTLOOK on STONKSAn outlook on Apple for the short term and long term outlook. As well as Macro Outlook on Stock. How will January play out. Will that give us a good read on the rest of 2024. How should we navigate the 1st and 2nd half of the year
Is Microsoft taking Apples throne?Apple is very oversold and relatively weak compared to MSFT.
Are we about to see a rotation trade take place?
MSFT is looking vulnerable while Apple is looking like a dead cat bounce play.
January 4th Members Daily analysisMarkets reversed lower after briefly going green.
All indices down on the back of yields rising.
Relentless selling in Apple.
Analysts Downgrade AAPL SharesAccording to Yahoo Finance, Barclays analysts downgraded AAPL shares to “underweight” and lowered their price forecast: they expect the share price to drop to USD 160 (although AAPL traded above USD 184 yesterday).
Analysts justified their decision by their expectations of a decrease in demand for new iPhone models. “Our checks remain negative on volumes and mix for iPhone 15, and we see no features or upgrades that are likely to make the iPhone 16 more compelling.”
The news caused AAPL's share price to fall 3.6% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day percentage drop since September, and the decline wiped out more than USD 107 billion in market value. Concerns are growing due to:
→ growing competition from companies such as Huawei Technologies Co;
→ strict measures by the Chinese government against foreign-made devices.
The graph shows that:
→ The price forms a downward channel, shown in red. We outlined the lower contour of this channel in the analysis of the AAPL share price on November 3. At the same time, we wrote about the emerging decline in sales of Apple products.
→ The price has formed an AB double top pattern. Moreover, the second peak is higher than the first, which forms a false bullish breakout - a threatening sign.
→ Comparing the performance of AAPL stock with the performance of the stock market index, we can see that the stock is actually underperforming the market in the second half of 2023.
Thus, there is reason to assume that if the price continues to develop within the contours indicated by the downward red channel, it will drop to the values predicted by Barclays analysts.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
APPLE eyeing the 1W MA50 support.Apple (AAPL) hit yesterday the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 06, extending the rejection on the Resistance 1 level. A rejection that is in perfect symmetry with the February 03 rejection that also caused a pull-back.
The last call we made on Apple (see chart below) was on November 12 actually signaling a buy after the Falling Wedge break-out, targeting 195.00:
The fundamentals this time are far from ideal, so a greater correction seeks the next technical Support level. That is the 1W MA5 (red trend-line), which is currently sitting at the bottom (Higher Lows trendline) of the multi-month Rising Wedge pattern, and was the level that initiated the strong rally on the October 26 bottom.
As a result we are looking for a downside range within 177.00 - 175.00 and then rebound with a $215.00 target.
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2024 Investment OutlookIntroduction
The current economic landscape is marked by higher interest rates and increased volatility, a departure from the stability observed in the decade following the global financial crisis. Unlike before, central banks face challenges in stabilizing economies due to production constraints and tougher trade-offs in addressing inflation versus supporting growth. The evolving economic environment is shaped by structural factors such as shrinking workforces, geopolitical fragmentation, and the low-carbon transition.
The prevailing uncertainty has led to a disconnect between cyclical narratives and structural realities, contributing to market volatility. Despite apparent U.S. economic growth, it reflects a recovery from the pandemic shock rather than robust expansion. The key implication is persistently higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, prompting a need for a more active portfolio approach.
In this new regime, macro insights are expected to be valuable, with greater volatility and return dispersion creating opportunities for investment expertise.
Context is everything
In 2023, hopes for a soft landing in the U.S. economy have been fueled by robust growth in the third quarter, a significant decline in core inflation, and the creation of nearly 7 million jobs since January 2022. However, taking a broader perspective reveals that the economy is still recovering from the pandemic, with job gains largely recouping those lost during the initial impact. Despite strong job growth, overall economic activity has been below pre-pandemic expectations, averaging less than 1.8% annual growth since the pandemic.
The key insight is that a structural change has occurred, leading to a weaker growth path accompanied by higher inflation, increased interest rates, and elevated debt levels. The advice for investors is to focus on how the economy and markets are adjusting to this new regime rather than relying on a typical cyclical playbook, as the traditional approach may be misguided.
Managing Macro Risk
Investors are advised to neutralize macro exposures or, with high conviction, deliberately choose exposures. Analyst estimates for S&P 500 equity earnings show increased dispersion, emphasizing the potential rewards for macro insight.
Despite the adjustment to structurally higher inflation and policy rates, markets vary in their response. The uneven adjustment is highlighted by factors such as surging U.S. 10-year yields compared to relatively unchanged DM equity earnings yields. This adjustment is considered more critical than the possibility of a technical recession, warranting caution on broad exposures.
The long-term risk of higher inflation increases if borrowing costs remain elevated, potentially surpassing spending on Medicare in the future. A rise in term premium and expectations of increased yield volatility led to a tactical neutral stance and a strategic underweight position in long-term U.S. Treasuries. The preferred strategic overweight is in inflation-linked bonds.
Harnessing mega forces
The concept of mega forces offers a strategic approach to steering portfolios, focusing on building blocks that go beyond traditional asset classes. These forces, seen as independent drivers of corporate profits, provide potential opportunities that may be uncorrelated with macro cycles. Mega forces, such as digital disruption and artificial intelligence (AI), are already reshaping markets, as demonstrated by the outperformance of U.S. tech compared to the broader market.
The winners and losers in the mega forces landscape can influence tactical views, impacting stances on developed market equities even in less favorable macroeconomic conditions. Embracing mega forces is presented as a means for investors to outperform static allocations, leveraging the far-reaching consequences that create new investment opportunities. Examples include private credit filling the lending void due to capital pressures on banks, demographic shifts shaping production and growth limitations, and the emergence of climate resilience as an investment theme within the low-carbon transition.
AI intelligence revolution
Advances in computing hardware and deep learning have marked an inflection point for Artificial Intelligence (AI) since late 2022, with expectations of exponential progress in innovation. While tracking AI investment opportunities across geographies and sectors involves high uncertainty, a technology "stack" approach is suggested to assess these opportunities. The stack includes cloud infrastructure and chips as the foundational layer, followed by models, data, and data infrastructure, and finally, applications that harness innovation.
The tech industry, particularly led by major tech firms, is seen pivoting toward AI, indicating the potential for an intelligence revolution. The current position is perceived to be between the first and second layers of the technology stack, with the last layer anticipated to follow. This shift has implications beyond near-term productivity gains. Early research suggests a positive correlation between increased AI patents and broad earnings growth, indicating rising economic value attributed to these patents.
Despite uncertainties surrounding the future value of AI patents and their translation into profitable enterprises, there is an overweight recommendation on the AI theme in developed market stocks for the next six to twelve months. The tech sector's earnings resilience is expected to persist, serving as a significant driver of overall U.S. corporate profit growth in 2024.
Investing in climate resilience
The emphasis of this chapter is on helping investors navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the energy transition. Beyond renewables, traditional energy companies can also outperform, especially during supply-demand mismatches.
While the energy transition often dominates headlines, a related and crucial investment theme is climate resilience. This involves preparing for, adapting to, and withstanding climate hazards, as well as rebuilding after climate damage. Climate resilience encompasses various solutions like early monitoring systems, air conditioning to address heatwaves, and retrofitting buildings for better weather resistance. Given the anticipated increase in climate damages, significant investment is required to enhance society's resilience.
The economic impact of climate damages is growing rapidly, and there is a rising demand for products and services that contribute to climate resilience. This theme is identified as potentially becoming a mainstream investment theme over time. The three sub-themes within climate resilience—assessing and quantifying risks, managing risk, and rebuilding physical infrastructure—create a framework to identify opportunities across sectors (such as industrials and technology) and asset classes.
Deepening fragmentation
Cascading crises have accelerated global fragmentation and the emergence of competing geopolitical and economic blocs. Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, the Gulf states, India, and Brazil are seen as potential beneficiaries of supply chain diversification, establishing ties with multiple blocs, and possessing valuable resources. In this more competitive global landscape, a surge of investment in strategic sectors such as technology, energy, defense, and infrastructure is expected. Opportunities also exist in firms specializing in managing and reducing cybersecurity risks.
Increased geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and structural competition between the U.S. and China are acknowledged. The current global situation is characterized by the highest number of volatile situations in decades, according to the UN. The year 2024 is anticipated to be the biggest election year in history, with the U.S. and Taiwan elections deemed particularly significant. Navigating this new world order requires holistic portfolio strategies that aim to both seize opportunities and mitigate risks, rather than focusing solely on avoiding risks or positioning for specific events.
Conclusion
Our core conviction is that investors need to be more dynamic with portfolios in the new regime. The outlook for 2024 suggests that investors should take a proactive stance, avoiding autopilot investing. The advice is to be intentional in managing portfolio risk, with an expectation of deploying more risk over the next year.
EOY review $AAPL big mamaAAPL outside quarter and outside year
exhaustion risk, with a little nuance
see how it did take out the Q3 highs, but couldn't close above it (although bright green)
one of the good things about zooming out to the higher timeframes, is that another (massive) move up can occur
also known as a 3-2 to the upside
let's see what happens, keeping an aye on it for sure
APPLE My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for APPLE is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 192.49
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 195.12
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AAPL: The Ultimate Bearish Shark Scenario Pointing Towards $33There is already an Active Bearish Shark Trade going on with AAPl that is targeting $152.24, which would be a 0.618 retrace of the local range, but there are much bigger bearish patterns and signals in the long term that could be hinting at an elevated probability of AAPL completely undoing the uptrend it's been in since 2018 and returning to those 2018 lows at $32.99.
Apple has been trading within an Ascending Broadening Wedge since 2018 and has recently topped out at the PCZ of a Bearish Shark it formed at the highs with PPO Confirmation and MACD Bearish Divergence. The target of this local top would take it to $152-$124, but if we zoom out to the bigger picture, we can see that if it hits the macro Demand Line from here, it will confirm the Partial Rise of this Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern and the measured move of this pattern would take it back to the pattern's inception, which is around $35. In addition to that, a break of this channel would also align with a break of a potential Harmonic B point, which would put us in a Shark BAMM and the PCZ of that Shark would land anywhere between the 0.886 retrace and 1.13 extension. Due to this confluence, I find it very likely that if we break below the wedge, we will then see the price of Apple take a Harmonic dive to the $35 area.
APPLE Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for APPLE is below:
The market is trading on 195.71 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 188.70
Recommended Stop Loss - 199.42
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Apple(AAPL)- Weekly Forecast is Bullish Technical Analysis:
- Apple is doing now wave ((3)) in black
- H1 right side is turning down
- H4 right side is up
Technical Information:
- If you're a swing trader, you can buy wave ((4)) in black when it completes ABC correction
- For position trader , you must wait for wave II in red to complete in next 6 months
APPLE Wedge Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
APPLE broke out of the
Bearish wedge after the
Retest of the horizontal
Resistance of 198.00$
So I think that we will
See a move down
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
APPLE My Opinion! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the APPLE next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 197.11
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 190.66
My Stop Loss - 201.03
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
✅APPLE BREAKOUT FROM THE WEDGE|SHORT🔥
✅APPLE failed to break the
Horizontal resistance of 198.00$
Then broke out of the bearish
Wedge pattern to the downside
So I will be expecting a
Further move down
SHORT🔥
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✅APPLE SHORT FROM RESISTANCE🔥
✅APPLE price went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 197.30$
Thus, as a pullback is already happening
And a move down towards the target of 189.50$ shall follow
SHORT🔥
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