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Big Update on daily and 4hr chart (BTCUSD,BTCLONGS, BTCSHORTS)Hello everyone Today a big update on BTC price action. I will talk about the daily, 4hr, BTCUSDLONG, BTCUSDSHORT charts today. Could this be a potential trend reversal? Let’s get straight into this! BTCUSD (Daily) -So we can clearly see our downwards trendline, we are creating lower lows and lower highs, which is very bearish. -So I drew the most bearish scenario of BTC. That would be if we tested a new low and hold on that level. (Under 5.7K red lines) -I think that we need to test higher highs before we can speak about a possible trend reversal. We need to test levels above our previous high (above 8.4K) and hold these levels for confirmation. -Enough bad news: there is a small bullish divergence hidden on this chart which could indicate some good news! (For those who don’t know a bullish divergence is when we test new lows and when the RSI is going up at that timeframe (example chart)). -The stochastic RSI is still oversold and ready to go to higher levels, maybe price will follow. BTCUSD (4hr chart) -So we find support between the 6K and 6.5K level at the moment. When I’m writing this BTC is going down which isn’t bad news at all. If we find support at 6.1K and bounce off, we could possibly see a reversed head and shoulders pattern, which is very bullish -If we see a reversed head and shoulders pattern, we could pass a very strong resistance level at 6.8K and maybe go all the way up to 7K and pass that aswell if momentum is right. -The levels that I drew are the resistance levels I’m watching. BTCUSDLONGS -Let’s start with the good news, we’re creating higher lows since January which is extremely bullish. Nevertheless, it’s a bit flatten out at the moment but nothing to worry about. -We can see that we’re creating lower highs which is negative ofcourse. This pattern will be destroyed in September after the ETF decision. BTCUSDSHORTS -We can see a clear resistance line at 30K people going short on BTC (on Bitfinex). Every time we hit the 30K mark, we bounce downwards which is a good thing. So the same thing has happened again, curious to see what’s next. I expect to go down to 17K if BTC bounce of and goes back up above 7K. Love to hear your opinion on this! DM's and comments are always welcome. Leave a like if you appreciated it!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by cheynos
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 132)Disclaimer: I just returned from my good friends birthday party and am well above the legal limit. I have been drinking and my analysis should be taken with a grain of salt. Long story short - resistance at $6,725 has failed to push the price below $6,390 and we are primed for another $750 - $1,000 pump. Short story long, there is a lot of resistance built up but it isn’t enough at this level. We are too far oversold on the higher time frames to continue dropping further. There is a C-Clamp on the daily and 3 day chart that needs to be rectified and we are too far below the 50 & 200 period MA’s to sustain this drop. A pump to $7,500 is expecting but it is not something to bet on. We are deep in the trenches of a bear market and preparing for a short sale entry should be the priority. As outlined in the last few posts building at short at or above $7,500 is very attractive. To make up for the short post see my checklist below: Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,508 R: $6,620 BTCUSDSHORTS: turning s into r. Still inside triangle. Funding Rates: 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): 1d: posturing for bullish cross 4h: crossed at $6K , flattening out and could posture down soon MA crossovers: bearish Candlestick analysis: tweezer bottom on daily, and higher lows. Looks like it is cupping around bearish spinning top. Chart Patterns: head and shoulders could be forming Ichimoku Cloud: tenkan resistance on 4h. At cloud resistance on 12h. C clamps on daily and 3d. TD Sequential: 3d: Green 2 1d: Green 1 Visible Range: Mad resistance and unfilled gap at $5,000 50 & 200 MA’s: below 50 & 200 and both are posturing down BTC Price Spreadsheet: Bollinger Bands: 1d: consolidating above MA 3d: bouncing off bottom band 1w: bouncing off bottom band Trendline: waiting slightly under $5k Fractals: up: $6,800 down: $5,819 On Balance Volume: bear divs w lower high and lower low vs tweezer. Bouncing on weekly Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI < 50 Stoch overbought Yesterday’s analysis: TD 8, weekly dragonfly, bitfinex channel, visible range Thanks for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 130)Yesterday we narrowed in on major areas of resistance and outlined why I believe $7,770 - $8,150 will be a great area to build a short. Since then we have shown weakness as the price failed to rally through $6,800. Today we will be checking to see if it still looks like the rally can get to $7,700+ as well as going over the reasons why I am staying out of the market while waiting for further development. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hour chart just had a kumo breakout , combined with a bullish TK cross and a bullish kumo twist . Please note: I have not found the 4 hour cloud to be reliable enough to trade by itself, if that was on the daily chart I would open a long. The 50 and 200 period MA ’s on the 4 hour chart are posturing for a golden cross . The price is finding resistance at the 200 MA while the 50 MA postures upward. This is similar to what Bollinger Bands illustrate. The price getting squeezed in between the two MA’s before crossing over is a very bullish indicator for the short term (1-2 weeks). The last time those crossed was on 4/18. Before the moving averages can cross on higher time frames they must first do so on lower time frames. Therefore we would expect the 1 hour, 2 hour and 3 hour charts to crossover before the 4 hour. As you can see below the shorter time frames have already fallen in line. The Bollinger Band on the 4 hour chart is starting to tighten and indicates that some volatility is on the horizon. The Ichimoku Cloud on the 1 day and the 3 day are indicating oversold conditions and suggest that a return to equilibrium is imminent. That is due to the C-Clamp that is evident on the 3 day and widening on the daily. With so many bullish indicators it can be difficult to remain on the sidelines. I seriously considered opening a small long position on the 4 hour golden cross and adding to it on the daily 12 & 26 EMA crossover that is expected. While I do believe that this rally has enough legs to get back to $7,770 - $8,150 there are two specific reasons that are making me hold off from opening a long. The first is the visible range volume profile which shows resistance stacked up from here to $8,500. There are two basic rules to trading which apply here: 1) Trade with the trend 2) Buy support ($5,000) and sell resistance ($6,700 - $8,500) We are in a bear trend and we are under a ton of resistance. Therefore I am going to stay away from a long. The second reason which led me to this decision is the TD Sequential which is currently on a green 6 out of 9. That indicates that the entry was missed and this rally could coming to an end. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 127)Yesterday we looked at the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart and I expected that to provide the support needed to break through the downtrend line that started on 5/5. We did end up breaking the trend line and now I expect a sustained rally for the next 1-2 weeks. We have a bullish crossover on the 12 & 26 period EMA’s for the following time periods: 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, and 6h. The EMA’s are posturing for a crossover on the 12 hour chart and we are currently testing the 26 EMA on the daily chart for resistance. If we range in between the 12 & 26 EMA’s on the daily chart before getting a crossover then a strong rally would be expected to follow. The 50 period MA is starting to posture upwards on the 4 hour chart and indicates that a crossover with the 200 period MA is likely in the near future. We just got a tweezer top on the 4 hour chart combined with a bearish spinning top . That won’t be nearly as powerful as the tweezer on the weekly chart but it could be an indication that this current rally has come to an end. If we are unable to rally past $6,800 resistance over the next couple days and we create a lower low below $6,275 then I will likely be opening a short immediately. In the post from yesterday I was expecting a bounce to $7,275 and I still feel good about that projection. Nevertheless I am sitting on my hands and waiting for further development. I remain firmly bearish for the rest of 2018 and would need a perfected setup in order to take on a bullish entry in this market (such as buying LTC at $50). The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart shows the next levels of resistance at $7,879 ( Kijun-Sen ) and $8,094 (Cloud retest). If we do rally back to those prices then I would be viewing it as a high probability short and opening a large position. Inexperienced traders will be running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off in this market. Do not let that happen to you. Have a plan, then patiently execute it with confidence. Have a backup plan and always be looking at the market from both sides. If you are feeling emotional then take a break and use smaller position sizing next time. If you want to open a long right now, then why didn’t you do it at $5,800 - $6,000? It's because you don't have enough confidence in your position and are following instead of preparing. If you want to open a short right now I would recommend waiting patiently because this bounce still has plenty of room to go. Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez