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Crude Oil WTI 60min Trend Continuation & Bear CypherStill looking to sell Rallies in Crude. I'm looking for a deep retracement back to $40.00 level. $40 is a key level for Crude if we want to maintain a Bearish view on the market. For all of you that use Combined Technical Scoring System (CTS) to help evaluate trades, we are already at a 7. It will more than likely get a higher score as it comes time to enter. Reasons for Entry @ $40.00 1. Bear Cypher - Cypher Completes right at the $40 level. 2. Major Structure - We have Major Structure at the $40 level with multiple tests of it on the way down. So we can assume that it will act as Resistance on the way up. 3. Fib Inversion Trade - Take a Fib Inversion off the last pullback down at the lows and looking to sell the 1.618% Fib Extension
FX:USOILShort
by PateSkpate
1
USDCAD 60min Balance Area Breakout Opportunity USDCAD has had 9 Straight days of Advance and has been VERY Bullish. It's currently in a nice Rising Channel. The Balance Area at the highs looks like Distribution to me. A lot of times this is a "topping pattern". So, I'm waiting for a Break & Close out of the Balance Area (Yellow Box) and will enter a short position. Stops - Will be 1 ATR above the Breakdown Bar. Target #1 - Will be a measured move of the Balance Area (Purple Line) Target #2 - Will be at Minor Support for a downside breakdown. 1.618% for the upside breakout You can see that the RSI has massive Divergence at the highs as well. I will also take the trade to the upside but I think the downside breakdown is the most probable scenario.
by PateSkpate
7
USDJPY 60min Bear Trend Continuation (TCT) & Bear GartleyUSDJPY, like all JPY crosses have been declining in heavy trend. I'm looking to Short USDJPY on the 1hr using a variety of entry techniques that are all lining up in one area. 1. Trend Continuation Trade - I like to sell these pullbacks somewhere between the 61.8% & 78.6% Fib retracements. I like to see some sort of Reversal Pattern or Candle in that area before I pull the trigger. 2. We have a Bear Gartley Pattern that completes right in my "Sell Zone". 3. There is structure looking left. 4. Fib Inversion Trade - The 1.618% fib inversion of the pullback puts price right into my "Sell Zone" 5. ABCD Pattern - There is an ABCD Pattern that completes right in my "Sell Zone" 6. Higher Time Frame - HTF is supporting a down move to about 116.000 and is Trending down currently 7. Ratio Confluence - There is a "Fib Cluster" that all packs into my "Sell Zone" Depending on how you score it using "Combined Technical Scoring" (CTS), its' at an 8 right now. If the RSI goes overbought then we will be up to 9! - Stops need to go AT LEAST 1 ATR behind the Reversal Zone and tucked safely behind that 119.00 even level. - Targets will be what ever your Trade Plan says. My Trade Plan has me placing Target #1 at the Previous lows of the trend and Target #2 at the 1.27% Fib ext.
Short
by PateSkpate
5
Crude Oil CL 1hr TCT, Fib Inversion, & CypherWell its been no surprise that CL has been in a bear trend for quite some time. We will continue to keep selling the rallies. I just missed my fill on this trade. Maybe it will come back up for me.. We will see. The TCT was based on the 78.6% fib retracement and Fib Inversion Trade which completes at the 1.618% ext. The pullback also put in a harmonic move (not shown on chart). Entries, Stops, and Targets are all shown on chart. The Cypher Pattern i'm not worried about right now because its a long ways away and we could re-visit previous lows and still have the Cypher Pattern Valid.
FX:USOILShort
by PateSkpate
S&P500 Bearish Trend Continuation Trade (TCT)The S&P 500 has been in a Bear Trend on the 1hr since Dec 2. We will continue with that theme and sell rallies. This is at market Sell on the S&P. Stops above the last swing high and Targets are down at the lows and 1.27 Fib Ext (all shown on the chart). Entry was a rally into the 78.6% Fib Retracement, 1.618%Fib Inversion, and a complex pullback in the form of a Harmonic Move (not quite an ABCD pattern because the C leg didn't retrace to the 38.2%). This trade is producing very good Risk to Reward, especially if you trade with (2) Contracts.
FX:SPX500Short
by PateSkpate
EURJPY 60min Trend Continuation Trade (TCT)EURJPY has recently broken structure to the downside. This is signaling that it's ready to start it's downtrend. I'm looking to sell this rally once price reaches my "entry zone". Entry - I will go down on a smaller time frame and look for some sort of reversal pattern or candlestick for my entry. No matter where you enter in the zone you will get at least a 1 to 1 Risk to Reward. Stops - Stops go above structure (shown on chart). Target #1 - I will cover the first portion of this trade at recent lows (shown on chart). Target #2 - I will cover at the 1.27% Fib Extension. There are many ways you can handle Target #2's. A couple of ways are: Cover at Structure (which is way down there!). You can use trail stops and just keep trailing your stop above structure and ride it as long as you can until price reverses and stops you out. However, you do it make sure it's in your trading plan and you are consistent with taking Target #2's on all your trades.
Short
by PateSkpate
3
GBPUSD 1hr Double BottomGBPUSD has put in a Double Bottom at Daily Support. RSI went Oversold on the 1st Test. On the 2nd Test the RSI was showing Bullish Divergence. Zoom in on a Lower Time Frame once Price reaches the Entry Zone and look for some sort of Reversal Pattern Such as a Hammer Candlestick, Doji, 3 Bar Reversal, etc... Stops go either 1 ATR or 10 Pips below the Double Bottom. Target #1 is a retest of the last High and Target #2 is another Important Level on this Pair. This trade hits about 55%-60% so plan accordingly.. Not the highest probability trade so make sure you get good Risk to Reward (Better than 1 to 1).
Long
by PateSkpate
2
Breaking Down the NZDUSD 1HRThis is just a Technical Analysis on what COULD happen on the Kiwi. I'm looking at Trading the Balance Area in EITHER direction. These Balance Area are typically areas where Smart Money is either Accumulating or Distributing Orders. I think given the Overall Bearish Trend and the way this Pattern has setup it makes the most sense for a downside Breakdown, HOWEVER, I will only Trade it when I get a Break & Close out of the Balance Area for confirmation per my Trading Rules. Downside Scenario: IF, we break to the downside then we will be forming the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulder Pattern, which would make Target #2 a higher probability of getting hit. Also, be prepared for a bounce on at Target #1's because there is structure there looking left.
by PateSkpate
3
GBP/JPY DOUBLE TOP FORMING ON 1HR TIME FRAME?GBP/JPY IS APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE AT 194.59, OFFERING A LOW RISK SHORT TRADE AS A DOUBLE TOP MAY POTENTIALLY FORM. PRICE ACTION PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED THE 194.59 LEVEL WAS PROTECTED BY SELLERS, A REJECTION OF R1 AGAIN EXPOSES THE DOWNSIDE OF 190.97 (S1) - A BREAK OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDLINE THAT HAS FORMED WOULD ADD EXTRA CONFIRMATION OF FURTHER SELLING. S1 OFFERS A GOOD PROFIT TAKING AREA AS IT IS THE 0.382 RETRACE OF THE ORIGINAL 185.00 (S3) SWING LOW AND THE 194.50 SWING HIGH (R1), A BREAK OF THIS LEVEL WOULD EXPOSE 189.20's. THE 150 DAY MA HAS BEEN ACTING AS SHORT TERM SUPPORT FOR THE PAIR, A BREAK OF THE 150 MA, AND A CROSSOVER OF THE MA'S WOULD ADD FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF SHORT TERM SELLING. CURRENTLY THE SHORT TERM 16 DAY MA IS POINTING TO THE DOWNSIDE. ORDERS ARE BEST PLACED JUST BELOW R1 AT 194.41, IF PRICE REVERSES PRIOR TO THIS LEVEL ENTRIES CAN BE MOVED TO THE AREA OF THE TRENDLINE BREAK - STOPS CAN REMAIN ABOVE R1. SAFE TRADING.
Short
by JoeNeilCarey