US100 the end of the year is coming!
Hello;
Here is my view on the
US100; our friend Powel is starting to reduce the strength of the increase in key rates, an encouraging signal. But the macro is often decorrelated from the micro economy; for example the insolvency of American loans is increasing as are the delays in payment of imo loans. First signs of the 2008 crisis; I invite you to see the super movie: The Big Short!
- The industry through the PMI index suffers worldwide (50 Neutral; more than 50 Growth and less than 50 Slowdown): zupimages.net/viewer.php?id=22/50/6x6s .png
- For the PMI Composite (Industry, services and construction) therefore highly representative of the health of a real economy is not doing any better: zupimages.net/viewer.php?id=22/50 /vysk.png
So this period in the markets for me is a temporary lull to wait for the end of the year before choosing a real direction. Liquidity is present in a significant way at the bottom as well as at the top, and the choice of direction is not ours, so let's limit our risk. Because the situation can quickly deteriorate, with a contagion of the consequences of the recession, to various sectors.
To analyse :
Price location:
- After the Covid bottom of March 25, 2020 at 6900 points, the Nasdac rose 144% to put an ATH at 16,650 points.
- Since this rise we have retraced a maximum of 37.1% at 10,470 points in 280 days of decline, to go below the equilibrium at 11,700 points (green line).
Evolution of the price and personal vision:
- We see that since the low point of 10,400, the price rises between two liquidity zones (Box at the bottom Green/Red and at the top Blue, with the $ symbols).
- If the Range price is in waves 2,3 and 4, the standby liquidity will only grow, while allowing time for smart money to settle.
- During this Range, Fakeaout or Breakaout are highly possible because two major Fibonacci levels are there and therefore, stops or TP retails.
- I think that at the end of February a direction should be taken. For me wave 5 will be violent, and decisive for the next 6 months!
I therefore propose 2 possible entries, Long and Short, both with an R/R of 4:
The short position (line 5 in Red) corresponds to JP Morgan's target of 10,000 points, for fans of Fud.
To quote a positive:
The OBV, which had fallen to Covid levels, is recovering and printing beautiful Ws and respecting a trend line:
zupimages.net/viewer.php?id=22/50/hn2a.png
If the trend line breaks, it will not be a good signal for me.
Personal Conclusion:
So I think we could put away some time to create standby liquidity, to pick it up in typical range moves.
We must remain cautious and look for entries such as smart money, ie in these areas of potential TP/SL with judiciously placed SLs.
The market is not giving gifts at the moment, think about your currency management!
Here is my view on the
US100; our friend Powel is starting to reduce the strength of the increase in key rates, an encouraging signal. But the macro is often decorrelated from the micro economy; for example the insolvency of American loans is increasing as are the delays in payment of imo loans. First signs of the 2008 crisis; I invite you to see the super movie: The Big Short!- The industry through the PMI index suffers worldwide (50 Neutral; more than 50 Growth and less than 50 Slowdown): zupimages.net/viewer.php?id=22/50/6x6s .png
- For the PMI Composite (Industry, services and construction) therefore highly representative of the health of a real economy is not doing any better: zupimages.net/viewer.php?id=22/50 /vysk.png
So this period in the markets for me is a temporary lull to wait for the end of the year before choosing a real direction. Liquidity is present in a significant way at the bottom as well as at the top, and the choice of direction is not ours, so let's limit our risk. Because the situation can quickly deteriorate, with a contagion of the consequences of the recession, to various sectors.
To analyse :
Price location:
- After the Covid bottom of March 25, 2020 at 6900 points, the Nasdac rose 144% to put an ATH at 16,650 points.
- Since this rise we have retraced a maximum of 37.1% at 10,470 points in 280 days of decline, to go below the equilibrium at 11,700 points (green line).
Evolution of the price and personal vision:
- We see that since the low point of 10,400, the price rises between two liquidity zones (Box at the bottom Green/Red and at the top Blue, with the $ symbols).
- If the Range price is in waves 2,3 and 4, the standby liquidity will only grow, while allowing time for smart money to settle.
- During this Range, Fakeaout or Breakaout are highly possible because two major Fibonacci levels are there and therefore, stops or TP retails.
- I think that at the end of February a direction should be taken. For me wave 5 will be violent, and decisive for the next 6 months!
I therefore propose 2 possible entries, Long and Short, both with an R/R of 4:
The short position (line 5 in Red) corresponds to JP Morgan's target of 10,000 points, for fans of Fud.
To quote a positive:
The OBV, which had fallen to Covid levels, is recovering and printing beautiful Ws and respecting a trend line:
zupimages.net/viewer.php?id=22/50/hn2a.png
If the trend line breaks, it will not be a good signal for me.
Personal Conclusion:
So I think we could put away some time to create standby liquidity, to pick it up in typical range moves.
We must remain cautious and look for entries such as smart money, ie in these areas of potential TP/SL with judiciously placed SLs.
The market is not giving gifts at the moment, think about your currency management!
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