SPY Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX Analysis for Dec. 18
1. Daily Chart (1D)
* Trend: SPY is trading within a well-established upward channel. The price recently hit resistance at the upper channel line (~609), suggesting overbought conditions.
* Support Levels:
* 590: Key short-term support, aligned with the lower EMA support.
* 577-571: Major support zone; a breakdown here signals a bearish shift.
* Resistance:
* 609-610: Upper trendline resistance. SPY has failed to hold above this range.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence forming as momentum weakens while price pushes higher.
* Volume: Strong volume uptick at recent highs, suggesting possible distribution.
Bias: The daily chart signals caution, with a potential pullback to 602-604 (middle channel) or further to 590.
2. Hourly Chart (1H)
* Price Action: SPY shows rejection from the upper resistance (~609) and is trending downward towards key intraday support at 602-603.
* Support/Resistance:
* Support: 602 (highest PUT Wall in GEX), 604 (confluence of EMA and PUT Wall).
* Resistance: 607-608 (CALL resistance).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover; momentum remains negative.
* Trendlines: SPY is testing lower channel support on this timeframe.
Bias: SPY is likely to remain range-bound between 603-607 for now. A break below 602 could accelerate downside pressure.
3. GEX Analysis
* Key GEX Levels:
* 607: CALL Resistance (1.25%). Likely an upper cap.
* 603: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT Support. This level is critical; breaking below it increases bearish momentum.
* 602: Second PUT Wall (-32.62%), significant downside target.
* Options Oscillator: Indicates PUT dominance with 56.9% Puts versus Calls.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 16.7 — IV remains low, suggesting minimal volatility expectation.
GEX Insight: The options market suggests 603 is the battleground. Bulls need to reclaim 607 to push higher, while bears will attempt to defend the PUT-heavy zones at 603-602.
Trade Outlook for SPY
* Bearish Setup: Look for rejection at 605-607. A breakdown below 603 can target 602, with potential downside extension to 600.
* Bullish Setup: A strong rebound off 603 with volume could signal a push back to test 607. Break above 608 confirms bullish continuation.
Conclusion
SPY remains at a critical juncture near upper resistance. Monitor 603 closely, as a break or bounce here will dictate short-term direction. Options GEX levels highlight a PUT-heavy market, favoring bearish pressure unless bulls reclaim higher ground.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
* Trend: SPY is trading within a well-established upward channel. The price recently hit resistance at the upper channel line (~609), suggesting overbought conditions.
* Support Levels:
* 590: Key short-term support, aligned with the lower EMA support.
* 577-571: Major support zone; a breakdown here signals a bearish shift.
* Resistance:
* 609-610: Upper trendline resistance. SPY has failed to hold above this range.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence forming as momentum weakens while price pushes higher.
* Volume: Strong volume uptick at recent highs, suggesting possible distribution.
Bias: The daily chart signals caution, with a potential pullback to 602-604 (middle channel) or further to 590.
2. Hourly Chart (1H)
* Price Action: SPY shows rejection from the upper resistance (~609) and is trending downward towards key intraday support at 602-603.
* Support/Resistance:
* Support: 602 (highest PUT Wall in GEX), 604 (confluence of EMA and PUT Wall).
* Resistance: 607-608 (CALL resistance).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover; momentum remains negative.
* Trendlines: SPY is testing lower channel support on this timeframe.
Bias: SPY is likely to remain range-bound between 603-607 for now. A break below 602 could accelerate downside pressure.
3. GEX Analysis
* Key GEX Levels:
* 607: CALL Resistance (1.25%). Likely an upper cap.
* 603: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT Support. This level is critical; breaking below it increases bearish momentum.
* 602: Second PUT Wall (-32.62%), significant downside target.
* Options Oscillator: Indicates PUT dominance with 56.9% Puts versus Calls.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 16.7 — IV remains low, suggesting minimal volatility expectation.
GEX Insight: The options market suggests 603 is the battleground. Bulls need to reclaim 607 to push higher, while bears will attempt to defend the PUT-heavy zones at 603-602.
Trade Outlook for SPY
* Bearish Setup: Look for rejection at 605-607. A breakdown below 603 can target 602, with potential downside extension to 600.
* Bullish Setup: A strong rebound off 603 with volume could signal a push back to test 607. Break above 608 confirms bullish continuation.
Conclusion
SPY remains at a critical juncture near upper resistance. Monitor 603 closely, as a break or bounce here will dictate short-term direction. Options GEX levels highlight a PUT-heavy market, favoring bearish pressure unless bulls reclaim higher ground.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Disclaimer
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