ICX in-depth analysis
Updated
ICX is a project that I have been a fan of from a FA perspective for quite a while. In this idea I will outline my thoughts on the project from a TA perspective over multiple time frames.
1D - On the day scale we see that ICX is currently between the 0.618 and 0.786 fib levels of the entire Binance history. It's worth noting that the extremes of the price action for ICX are dominated by the bull market at the end of 2017 / beginning of 2018. This early dominance coupled with a short history on Binance skews the overall look in my opinion. ICX has not gone above the 0.382 level since early February, and has spent over 70% of it's price history below that level.
The 4 red dotted lines are loose areas of support and resistance which are distinct from the fib levels. We recently have bounced off of the resistance line which was last tested in early April. This bounce coincided with the RSI dipping into the oversold ( < 30 ) area.
The magenta line represents the downtrend line from ATH, which was recently tested on June 15th. This rejection coincides with a test of the mid-point of a weak falling wedge, denoted by the yellow lines. This rejection puts the 28k sat range in play, as well as the .786 fib at 24290.
It is obvious that there is quite a lot of upside should the market turn bullish. Accumulation at the macro 0.786 level is always worth looking into.
The daily chart leaves me feeling neutral and needing to probe smaller timescales for more information. For the < 1D timescales I will focus more on recent price action to help determine where we are going next.
4hr I am feeling very good about the 4hr chart here. I have included a second magenta downtrend line to cover the 4hr candle body case and the wick case. I do not find any value in limiting yourself to only one possible trend line. As noted in the 1D frame we have very recently rejected from one of the macro trend lines and we are now consolidating in a week-long pennant.
The volume has significantly increased following the bounce from the oversold RSI territory and looks much like typical "accumulation" volume to me.
A bullish break from this pennant would have me looking at the 33k-34k area as the first stop before a likely re-test of the top of the pennant. A successful re-test would be followed by a test of ~36.5k and likely 40k. BTC would need to hold the current level or grind slowly up to ~7k for this scenario to play out over the coming day or two.
A bearish break, which will almost certainly follow a dump by BTC if one happens, will have us in the 28k - 26.5k range. Possibly even lower to the 0.786 region depending on how violently BTC moves.
1hr I will use the 1hr scale to find my swing trades on this pennant.
Like many alts right now, ICX is at the mercy of BTC. There is a lot of fear and uncertainty in the market as many traders wait patiently to find out if we are going to $7000+ levels or if we are going sub $6000 and into dangerous territory. A hold of this level or bullish movement by BTC will likely yield an easy 10-20% here on ICX.
I will be considering the following two plays for myself:
1: Trading the breakout of the triangle. Roughly 7% gain here with a ~2.8 R/R to a stop on the downside of the triangle below a recent low.
2: Trading the re-test of the breakout. 15% conservative play here with a stop through the other side of the triangle (failure). Solid R/R here of 6.
--
ICX is a long term hold for me so I consider these prices to be ripe for accumulation. Just because something is a long term investment doesn't mean that you can't trade swings for profit though! As always, DYOR and the information above is not financial advice, just a narrative of my personal view of the charts.
1D - On the day scale we see that ICX is currently between the 0.618 and 0.786 fib levels of the entire Binance history. It's worth noting that the extremes of the price action for ICX are dominated by the bull market at the end of 2017 / beginning of 2018. This early dominance coupled with a short history on Binance skews the overall look in my opinion. ICX has not gone above the 0.382 level since early February, and has spent over 70% of it's price history below that level.
The 4 red dotted lines are loose areas of support and resistance which are distinct from the fib levels. We recently have bounced off of the resistance line which was last tested in early April. This bounce coincided with the RSI dipping into the oversold ( < 30 ) area.
The magenta line represents the downtrend line from ATH, which was recently tested on June 15th. This rejection coincides with a test of the mid-point of a weak falling wedge, denoted by the yellow lines. This rejection puts the 28k sat range in play, as well as the .786 fib at 24290.
It is obvious that there is quite a lot of upside should the market turn bullish. Accumulation at the macro 0.786 level is always worth looking into.
The daily chart leaves me feeling neutral and needing to probe smaller timescales for more information. For the < 1D timescales I will focus more on recent price action to help determine where we are going next.
4hr I am feeling very good about the 4hr chart here. I have included a second magenta downtrend line to cover the 4hr candle body case and the wick case. I do not find any value in limiting yourself to only one possible trend line. As noted in the 1D frame we have very recently rejected from one of the macro trend lines and we are now consolidating in a week-long pennant.
The volume has significantly increased following the bounce from the oversold RSI territory and looks much like typical "accumulation" volume to me.
A bullish break from this pennant would have me looking at the 33k-34k area as the first stop before a likely re-test of the top of the pennant. A successful re-test would be followed by a test of ~36.5k and likely 40k. BTC would need to hold the current level or grind slowly up to ~7k for this scenario to play out over the coming day or two.
A bearish break, which will almost certainly follow a dump by BTC if one happens, will have us in the 28k - 26.5k range. Possibly even lower to the 0.786 region depending on how violently BTC moves.
1hr I will use the 1hr scale to find my swing trades on this pennant.
Like many alts right now, ICX is at the mercy of BTC. There is a lot of fear and uncertainty in the market as many traders wait patiently to find out if we are going to $7000+ levels or if we are going sub $6000 and into dangerous territory. A hold of this level or bullish movement by BTC will likely yield an easy 10-20% here on ICX.
I will be considering the following two plays for myself:
1: Trading the breakout of the triangle. Roughly 7% gain here with a ~2.8 R/R to a stop on the downside of the triangle below a recent low.
2: Trading the re-test of the breakout. 15% conservative play here with a stop through the other side of the triangle (failure). Solid R/R here of 6.
--
ICX is a long term hold for me so I consider these prices to be ripe for accumulation. Just because something is a long term investment doesn't mean that you can't trade swings for profit though! As always, DYOR and the information above is not financial advice, just a narrative of my personal view of the charts.
Note
And this is why we use stop losses! On to the next setup.
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