Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EURUSD WAVE 4 OR WAVE C ? HISTORIC ANALYSIS
Updated
EURUSD is now in an uncertainty zone, but it is really uncertainty?
The previous big uptrend for EURUSD was from DIC2016 to FEB2018 (15 MONTHS).
Currently, this uptrend started at MARCH2020 and we are not sure if it is finished ot it will continue.
If it is finished, it means was a really short uptrend and it is probable for the irruption of COVID19.
Covid19 affected US much more than EU, weakening dollar more than euro during 7 months (time of the current price cycle).
This is situation has an interpretation:
"COVID19 interfered with a bearish price cycle that was going to be longer, creating a short lived bullish wave (7 months).
Anyway, in the graph presented we review the wave 4 of the previous uptrend,
we can see that there was a 500 pips retracement after that price continued going up.
Now we are in doubt, Currently price is 1.1843 and we are not sure if We are amid wave 4 and price will continue going up or wave C is just started.
But as we can see if we are amid wave 4 we still no hit the lowest level of this wave. (Remember last wave 4 has 500 pips retracement)
Considering all this we could say is highly more probable Price will continue downtrend. The current retracement is just 157 pips from 1.20 to 1.1843, we have wide room for more retracement and remember : Market has memory.
The previous big uptrend for EURUSD was from DIC2016 to FEB2018 (15 MONTHS).
Currently, this uptrend started at MARCH2020 and we are not sure if it is finished ot it will continue.
If it is finished, it means was a really short uptrend and it is probable for the irruption of COVID19.
Covid19 affected US much more than EU, weakening dollar more than euro during 7 months (time of the current price cycle).
This is situation has an interpretation:
"COVID19 interfered with a bearish price cycle that was going to be longer, creating a short lived bullish wave (7 months).
Anyway, in the graph presented we review the wave 4 of the previous uptrend,
we can see that there was a 500 pips retracement after that price continued going up.
Now we are in doubt, Currently price is 1.1843 and we are not sure if We are amid wave 4 and price will continue going up or wave C is just started.
But as we can see if we are amid wave 4 we still no hit the lowest level of this wave. (Remember last wave 4 has 500 pips retracement)
Considering all this we could say is highly more probable Price will continue downtrend. The current retracement is just 157 pips from 1.20 to 1.1843, we have wide room for more retracement and remember : Market has memory.
Note
Is necessary to precise another possibility, we are maybe amid Wave B where:Wave 5 finished at 1.20, Wave A finished at 1.1765 and wave B is currently in course, anyway this wave has to finish in a point between 1.1905 and 1.1985.
LOOK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT MY NEXT CHART.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.