Euro / U.S. DollarShort
EUR/USD: Risk 10-20 pips for a big return
Hello traders.
THIS IS JUST AN IDEA, NOT INVESTMENT OR TRADING ADVICE
The fundamental backdrop for a bearish EUR/USD continuation stays unchanged in my opinion.
This morning's reaction to new jobless claims was probably a knee jerk reaction since the release is only 24 hours away from NFP data and two weeks away from the FOMC rate decision. And the BOJ decision. And a week away from the ECB decision. A lot of upcoming risk events.
Price also tested the daily high at 1.05868 which was the last daily high before price had reversed from the daily high at 1.05963. There was an initial doji candle on the 4H chart but the next two candle up until the daily close retested the high without exceeding it. Is this a clear reversal again? Not at all.
There are three levels of interest above 1.05868:
Daily high at 1.0596
Daily high at 1.0609 ( also the 0.382 fib level on the monthly chart)
Two daily closes at 1.0622
The October NFP print of 12K was was attributed to harsh winter storms.
This has raised the bar considerably for tomorrow's data. Will it just be about the headline or will a deep dive into the data tell a different story? Will investors look at the average of the the two months?
There is no clarity, so proceed with caution. The German Industrial Production print at 07:00 GMT may be market moving especially since the EURO simply shrugged off the political drama in France.
However, volatility can be very rewarding if one has the stomach to deal with the whiplash. It sure beats staring at a monitor for hours on end and still getting stopped out. Might as well make it data based and get stopped out instantaneously. On this topic: I make good use of the alerts in TV on both my desktop, laptop and phone. It prevents the constant glancing at the charts.
A possibility is to set an entry order at 1.0622 to short the pair. The stop loss? 10-20 pips?
OR half a position at 1.0610 and half at 1.0622.
It is a very personal preference BUT one thing is clear: keep the position size and stop loss modest as a ratio of your equity.
Finally, the technical indicators point to maybe just a continuation of the range for now.
As for the cup and handle pattern, I stand corrected if it is not valid.
Best of luck.
THIS IS JUST AN IDEA, NOT INVESTMENT OR TRADING ADVICE
The fundamental backdrop for a bearish EUR/USD continuation stays unchanged in my opinion.
This morning's reaction to new jobless claims was probably a knee jerk reaction since the release is only 24 hours away from NFP data and two weeks away from the FOMC rate decision. And the BOJ decision. And a week away from the ECB decision. A lot of upcoming risk events.
Price also tested the daily high at 1.05868 which was the last daily high before price had reversed from the daily high at 1.05963. There was an initial doji candle on the 4H chart but the next two candle up until the daily close retested the high without exceeding it. Is this a clear reversal again? Not at all.
There are three levels of interest above 1.05868:
Daily high at 1.0596
Daily high at 1.0609 ( also the 0.382 fib level on the monthly chart)
Two daily closes at 1.0622
The October NFP print of 12K was was attributed to harsh winter storms.
This has raised the bar considerably for tomorrow's data. Will it just be about the headline or will a deep dive into the data tell a different story? Will investors look at the average of the the two months?
There is no clarity, so proceed with caution. The German Industrial Production print at 07:00 GMT may be market moving especially since the EURO simply shrugged off the political drama in France.
However, volatility can be very rewarding if one has the stomach to deal with the whiplash. It sure beats staring at a monitor for hours on end and still getting stopped out. Might as well make it data based and get stopped out instantaneously. On this topic: I make good use of the alerts in TV on both my desktop, laptop and phone. It prevents the constant glancing at the charts.
A possibility is to set an entry order at 1.0622 to short the pair. The stop loss? 10-20 pips?
OR half a position at 1.0610 and half at 1.0622.
It is a very personal preference BUT one thing is clear: keep the position size and stop loss modest as a ratio of your equity.
Finally, the technical indicators point to maybe just a continuation of the range for now.
As for the cup and handle pattern, I stand corrected if it is not valid.
Best of luck.
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