Ethereum / BitcoinShort
ETH: The beartrend is not over
Pretty red candles have led us to where we are now. An outbreak of the neckline of inverted head and shoulders created further upswing, but as I see it, the beartrend is not over yet:
- If you experience the downtrend of Bitcoin in 2013 and 2014 you will know how long a bearcycle may take. Taking the ratio of "Upmove duration of the Bubble into the bulltrap" until "capitulation candle into sideways" into account, the duration of both phases is around the same. This would mean another 50-100 days of downtrend for Ethereum.
- The software is still buggy as shit. What started with the hack of the dao is still being repaired with hardforks over hardforks. Whoever is trying to do implementations based on Ethereum knows what I am talking about.
- Too many coins are being mined each day. Demand would need to pick up dramatically, but I do not see any fundamentals that would justify it.
- Bitcoin bullishness: As Ethereum is the nominal and Bitcoin the limit currency, the trading pair ETH BTC is mostly depending on the movement of Bitcoin. As we assume a Bitcoin pump over the next weeks/months (weekly candles cannot be ignored) this will have dramatic effect on the development of ETHBTC.
- If you experience the downtrend of Bitcoin in 2013 and 2014 you will know how long a bearcycle may take. Taking the ratio of "Upmove duration of the Bubble into the bulltrap" until "capitulation candle into sideways" into account, the duration of both phases is around the same. This would mean another 50-100 days of downtrend for Ethereum.
- The software is still buggy as shit. What started with the hack of the dao is still being repaired with hardforks over hardforks. Whoever is trying to do implementations based on Ethereum knows what I am talking about.
- Too many coins are being mined each day. Demand would need to pick up dramatically, but I do not see any fundamentals that would justify it.
- Bitcoin bullishness: As Ethereum is the nominal and Bitcoin the limit currency, the trading pair ETH BTC is mostly depending on the movement of Bitcoin. As we assume a Bitcoin pump over the next weeks/months (weekly candles cannot be ignored) this will have dramatic effect on the development of ETHBTC.
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