DXY - 19 June 2023
Updated
Last Thursday:
FOMC ends up favoring DXY, from the way price move up, I can tell there must be lots of Long position stacked below the open of the FOMC candle.
However, price unable to follow through, this suggest that DXY is still in bearish trend, FOMC news is not strong enough to reverse the trend.
As FOMC drive price to the opposing side, price is very likely to come back up to the low of FOMC candle for MITIGATION purpose (Long position are in drawdown) Based on the law of profit maximization (loss minimization), they will want to exit the trade with minimal losses. Assume the open of this FOMC candle is their entry, price will at least have to back to their Entry level for Breakeven.
Plus the inefficiency that left behind from the news, price is very likely to being drive back up into this level. But will price do it by Monday or Tuesday, or even Wednesday I don't know. I will wait for the market to show me that it has intention in doing so.
So when I see price is being hold down there and start to move back up, I know where the price is targeting and reaching for. Although Long is consider counter trend at the moment, the trade idea is still solid enough for me to trade, as everything is clear to me, the market condition is consider favorable for trading. As if we are playing Long as CT trade, just be aware of managing the trade, partial out along the way, reduce the risk, and manage the losses.
FOMC ends up favoring DXY, from the way price move up, I can tell there must be lots of Long position stacked below the open of the FOMC candle.
However, price unable to follow through, this suggest that DXY is still in bearish trend, FOMC news is not strong enough to reverse the trend.
As FOMC drive price to the opposing side, price is very likely to come back up to the low of FOMC candle for MITIGATION purpose (Long position are in drawdown) Based on the law of profit maximization (loss minimization), they will want to exit the trade with minimal losses. Assume the open of this FOMC candle is their entry, price will at least have to back to their Entry level for Breakeven.
Plus the inefficiency that left behind from the news, price is very likely to being drive back up into this level. But will price do it by Monday or Tuesday, or even Wednesday I don't know. I will wait for the market to show me that it has intention in doing so.
So when I see price is being hold down there and start to move back up, I know where the price is targeting and reaching for. Although Long is consider counter trend at the moment, the trade idea is still solid enough for me to trade, as everything is clear to me, the market condition is consider favorable for trading. As if we are playing Long as CT trade, just be aware of managing the trade, partial out along the way, reduce the risk, and manage the losses.
Note
15m: Note
Price has completed its job to move higher, be aware if supply starts to take back control from here, we may see price continue the bearish trend after mitigation and filling up the inefficiency.
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