React and do not Predict
We find our self in a little situation that will require us to wait and be extremely cautious before launching any trade. I will explain in details in my analysis below.
In the monthly time frame, we see that the market made a very huge move to the downside, and then normally we might expect a retracement to continue the move to the downside. But instead we saw nothing like that. When we want to measure with our fib tool, we see that the market has broken the 78.6 Level and now is heading to the 100% level. In fact this monthly candle is very bullish. Coming back to the weekly. There things start becoming interesting, we see that the market is at a weekly resistance, and in fact the market previously created a demand area, so at this level we might expect a retracement to that level before continuing the move to the upside. Thus completing a W formation (retest at the neckline).
Coming down to the Daily, we saw now that price is an ASCENDING CHANNEL and in fact the previous candles where rejected by the the trend line and the weekly resistance (Powerful confluence). So normally we show expect the move to the Downside. This is in perfect confluence with the weekly analysis.
Now fundamentally, we see that according to the last report on the COT DATA, high institutions are opening more longs (1K longs) and closed more Shorts (2K Shorts), which means they are buying more. And this is in confluence with the monthly analysis we just made.
So right now the situation is kind of complex, and because of that we will make sure to see what the market is going to do and react to it, either on a long or on a short. Remember market is reactive not predictive. So we will wait and see, if there is a change of trend on the 4H time frame then we can take the short. But if we do not see anything of that then we can be rest assured that the market is gong to blow to the upside
In the monthly time frame, we see that the market made a very huge move to the downside, and then normally we might expect a retracement to continue the move to the downside. But instead we saw nothing like that. When we want to measure with our fib tool, we see that the market has broken the 78.6 Level and now is heading to the 100% level. In fact this monthly candle is very bullish. Coming back to the weekly. There things start becoming interesting, we see that the market is at a weekly resistance, and in fact the market previously created a demand area, so at this level we might expect a retracement to that level before continuing the move to the upside. Thus completing a W formation (retest at the neckline).
Coming down to the Daily, we saw now that price is an ASCENDING CHANNEL and in fact the previous candles where rejected by the the trend line and the weekly resistance (Powerful confluence). So normally we show expect the move to the Downside. This is in perfect confluence with the weekly analysis.
Now fundamentally, we see that according to the last report on the COT DATA, high institutions are opening more longs (1K longs) and closed more Shorts (2K Shorts), which means they are buying more. And this is in confluence with the monthly analysis we just made.
So right now the situation is kind of complex, and because of that we will make sure to see what the market is going to do and react to it, either on a long or on a short. Remember market is reactive not predictive. So we will wait and see, if there is a change of trend on the 4H time frame then we can take the short. But if we do not see anything of that then we can be rest assured that the market is gong to blow to the upside
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