Happy New Year for BTC?
Updated
After finally breaking up past 3400, BTC was met by the .236 of the whole swing down from 6550, and found strong resistance there at 3938.
I went long on BTC, ETH and LTC once LTC printed the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart last Sunday and seeing BTC bounce off the weekly 200 EMA. I have now closed those trades and am fishing for another long entry.
I'm looking for a retrace to one of the levels delineated on this chart, and expecting one of the two IH&S patterns I've drawn to work out in a bullish scenario.
The most beautiful thing about the larger red IH&S is that the target points precisely to the descending purple s/r trend line formed by the 2018 lows, which will be at 4438 on January 6th, and likely will like up with the 50 EMA on the daily at that time as well. I expect that line to be heavy, heavy resistance when we meet it.
The yellow IH&S is the uber-bullish scenario and would take us all the way to the .5 retrace of the whole swing down, at 4840.
I use 47 RSI on the daily as a barometer and we are stuck at it currently. I expect the right shoulder to deepen within the next couple days. Of course, in the uber-uber-bullish scenario, we have already retraced to the .618 of the move up, to 3638, and we can technically consider that a right shoulder, or a bullish flag, or whatever, and it might surprise us all and shoot up again from here in the next couple of days.
Upside targets are blue boxes.
Look for bullish signals like more upside movement on increased volume and support on 47-50 RSI, otherwise wait for more retrace and set yourself up for a long from one of the lower supports, once proven.
Measure twice, cut once.
May all of life's treasures be yours.
I went long on BTC, ETH and LTC once LTC printed the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart last Sunday and seeing BTC bounce off the weekly 200 EMA. I have now closed those trades and am fishing for another long entry.
I'm looking for a retrace to one of the levels delineated on this chart, and expecting one of the two IH&S patterns I've drawn to work out in a bullish scenario.
The most beautiful thing about the larger red IH&S is that the target points precisely to the descending purple s/r trend line formed by the 2018 lows, which will be at 4438 on January 6th, and likely will like up with the 50 EMA on the daily at that time as well. I expect that line to be heavy, heavy resistance when we meet it.
The yellow IH&S is the uber-bullish scenario and would take us all the way to the .5 retrace of the whole swing down, at 4840.
I use 47 RSI on the daily as a barometer and we are stuck at it currently. I expect the right shoulder to deepen within the next couple days. Of course, in the uber-uber-bullish scenario, we have already retraced to the .618 of the move up, to 3638, and we can technically consider that a right shoulder, or a bullish flag, or whatever, and it might surprise us all and shoot up again from here in the next couple of days.
Upside targets are blue boxes.
Look for bullish signals like more upside movement on increased volume and support on 47-50 RSI, otherwise wait for more retrace and set yourself up for a long from one of the lower supports, once proven.
Measure twice, cut once.
May all of life's treasures be yours.
Note
BTC broke out of the uber-bullish yellow triangle and is retesting the neckline at 3975. I'm beginning to buy with a stop loss at 3790.Trade active
Added more at 4011 and 4027. Interesting to note: the black line in the image below is the ascending s/r line created by the Aug 16 and Apr 17 lows, slicing through around 4015 today. After a tweezer bottom on the hourly on the retest of the yellow IH&S neckline, I would like to see this hold up over 4015 today, with a mid term target of 4400-4500.Note
Sorry I didn't update this yesterday, I was hosting a big Solstice party!I had been scalping in the volatility and landed in pretty good profit. Because of this, I removed my stop. I'm sorry if anyone got stopped based on my 3790 call, I think it wicked about 15 points lower than that. I am looking for a daily close over 3940 today or at the very latest tomorrow, to assume we keep going up. Failing to push back through there will likely mean retesting the lower levels (3450-3650) this week before resuming any upside if it is to be.
I like that the RSI came back down to test the 50 area as support. If we lose 47, or lose 3735, we will have to look to lower levels.
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