BitcoinLong
BTC mid-term play, TA & FA
Updated
Hey guys, this will be my first public idea, I hope you will enjoy it!
We found our local bottom successfully. Higher time frames looks pretty good. 1D - bullish engulfment, most indicators (RVGI, MACD crossed on bottom);
Target for the bullish engulfment is approx. 8080-100.
3D - reversal doji with big green candle next to it.
Indicators are still pointing down.
Also, we made a higher low (HL). Hourly, we validated inverse head & shoulders, even we retested the neckline. Some may see it as a broken resistance, which turned as support. In both cases, a bullish sign.
These are the current levels I am looking at:
We broke the local down trend line. Generally, I don't trust trend lines and I won't open a trade based solely on them, but still I prefer to add them in my charts, because they are "trendy", ha-ha. ;) Even if I don't trust an indicator, I prefer to see its actions, because masses may be using it and this way I can take a note, if there is going to be a reaction.
Recent bullish candle was stopped at 0.236 fib from almost 10k top to almost 7k bottom. I will name this range 10-7k. What I expect - small consolidation, maybe falling wedge retest, before next leg up. We just passed big confluence (resistance) zone. Crypto twitter is looking at 7800-7900 as a big resistance, but I believe (based on Fibonacci and Visible range) that this zone will be easier than the current broken resistance (7500-7600). In my eyes, 8100 zone will be tougher.
In the past 6 months we are forming a symmetric triangle, depending where we are going to put its lines, it can look like a bullish continuation or bearish continuation. This bull run seems important to determine the actions in the next few months (maybe year). Well, this is NOT now or never, because if we can't break the resistance, then we will test the support levels again, from there they can hold or break. Still, if we break the first resistance, then comes the next, then comes the next and so forth.
In other words: if we break 8100, then 8400, after that we will have to break 8800, then 9200-9300, then 10000, then 11700, then 14k... BUT first let's get through 7800-7900 area. We can be rejected at every resistance, test support, if successful to try resistance again until either support or resistance break.
BOTTOM LINE:
- Very long-term (one year plus) - BULLISH
- Long-term (this year) - NEUTRAL - it is still possible to retest zones around 7k and below, right now it is hard to tell. We need to see how far this bull run will continue. Thus, we are expecting in Q3 actions from MtGox... Yet the EOY, usually is bullish for BTC.
- Mid-term (next month) - BULLISH
- Weekly - BULLISH
- Daily - NEUTRAL - Possible consolidation or retest of the previous resistance, before next leg up.
- Hourly - see above
Looking forward for your feedback!
We found our local bottom successfully. Higher time frames looks pretty good. 1D - bullish engulfment, most indicators (RVGI, MACD crossed on bottom);
3D - reversal doji with big green candle next to it.
Also, we made a higher low (HL). Hourly, we validated inverse head & shoulders, even we retested the neckline. Some may see it as a broken resistance, which turned as support. In both cases, a bullish sign.
These are the current levels I am looking at:
We broke the local down trend line. Generally, I don't trust trend lines and I won't open a trade based solely on them, but still I prefer to add them in my charts, because they are "trendy", ha-ha. ;) Even if I don't trust an indicator, I prefer to see its actions, because masses may be using it and this way I can take a note, if there is going to be a reaction.
Recent bullish candle was stopped at 0.236 fib from almost 10k top to almost 7k bottom. I will name this range 10-7k. What I expect - small consolidation, maybe falling wedge retest, before next leg up. We just passed big confluence (resistance) zone. Crypto twitter is looking at 7800-7900 as a big resistance, but I believe (based on Fibonacci and Visible range) that this zone will be easier than the current broken resistance (7500-7600). In my eyes, 8100 zone will be tougher.
In the past 6 months we are forming a symmetric triangle, depending where we are going to put its lines, it can look like a bullish continuation or bearish continuation. This bull run seems important to determine the actions in the next few months (maybe year). Well, this is NOT now or never, because if we can't break the resistance, then we will test the support levels again, from there they can hold or break. Still, if we break the first resistance, then comes the next, then comes the next and so forth.
In other words: if we break 8100, then 8400, after that we will have to break 8800, then 9200-9300, then 10000, then 11700, then 14k... BUT first let's get through 7800-7900 area. We can be rejected at every resistance, test support, if successful to try resistance again until either support or resistance break.
BOTTOM LINE:
- Very long-term (one year plus) - BULLISH
- Long-term (this year) - NEUTRAL - it is still possible to retest zones around 7k and below, right now it is hard to tell. We need to see how far this bull run will continue. Thus, we are expecting in Q3 actions from MtGox... Yet the EOY, usually is bullish for BTC.
- Mid-term (next month) - BULLISH
- Weekly - BULLISH
- Daily - NEUTRAL - Possible consolidation or retest of the previous resistance, before next leg up.
- Hourly - see above
Looking forward for your feedback!
Note
Forgot to mention that I am NOT a financial adviser. I am just publishing my trading views, ideas and perceptions.Note
Well, this 7700-800 region became very tough for the bulls. These are the current levels I am looking at for the new day or two: With this falling volume, I see no reason to look for a too long setup, when our trading range is so narrowed. Yet, I will look for indicators showing the next big move, which has to happen soon?
Disclaimer
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