Monthly MACD Cross in the Context of Lengthening Cycles
Updated
1] First of all, it helps if you have the log version of the MACD. As the MACD is a measurement of moving averages, and as these moving averages can move exponentially over longer periods of time, they threaten to become defunct if the log version [that can deal with exponential increases] is not used. If the log MACD is not used, you'll notice the linear version will only have the current values, where those current values can not be compared to previous values, with such comparison, of present and past, being the whole point of using an indicator.
2] In looking at the LMACD, it was predictable months ago that the run up was simply too explosive off the base - the angle of the MACD being too steep reflecting the huge bounce of price which occurred after the sharp capitulation and 3K bottom. It was predictable [and was predicted on Crypto Twitter] that the monthly MACD would re-cross, something not seen before. This prediction was made on the idea of reducing volatility in the converging channel [atop the growth curve.. main chart] and lengthening cycles - if the next cycle was to be even a year longer than the previous one, then the bounce/ the mini parabola would have to correct back to the curve [the drawn line of support for price as drawn in the main chart].
3] Next, the MACD, though able to provide insights for prediction, must be seen primarily as a lagging indicator. That the monthly MACD has now crossed should not necessarily be taken as a leading signal, in this case a bear one, but is rather the lagging record of the way in which momentum has shifted from a spike months ago to the present correction. To take it as a leading indicator at this point of time could well be very... misleading.
4] Last, it's about the cycles. If you look at the lower chart with the MACD, you get a good idea of a cyclical pattern in BTC. If the next cycle is to take longer, and is to be less volatile with a diminished return, then you'd expect the mean line of the MACD to take the course that has been sketched for it. This also provides a prediction for the MACD, that it will not go into bear territory [below the zero line' but turn around to follow the mean line, and at a shallower angle than previously.
2] In looking at the LMACD, it was predictable months ago that the run up was simply too explosive off the base - the angle of the MACD being too steep reflecting the huge bounce of price which occurred after the sharp capitulation and 3K bottom. It was predictable [and was predicted on Crypto Twitter] that the monthly MACD would re-cross, something not seen before. This prediction was made on the idea of reducing volatility in the converging channel [atop the growth curve.. main chart] and lengthening cycles - if the next cycle was to be even a year longer than the previous one, then the bounce/ the mini parabola would have to correct back to the curve [the drawn line of support for price as drawn in the main chart].
3] Next, the MACD, though able to provide insights for prediction, must be seen primarily as a lagging indicator. That the monthly MACD has now crossed should not necessarily be taken as a leading signal, in this case a bear one, but is rather the lagging record of the way in which momentum has shifted from a spike months ago to the present correction. To take it as a leading indicator at this point of time could well be very... misleading.
4] Last, it's about the cycles. If you look at the lower chart with the MACD, you get a good idea of a cyclical pattern in BTC. If the next cycle is to take longer, and is to be less volatile with a diminished return, then you'd expect the mean line of the MACD to take the course that has been sketched for it. This also provides a prediction for the MACD, that it will not go into bear territory [below the zero line' but turn around to follow the mean line, and at a shallower angle than previously.
Note
Written davthewave
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