A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps?
-SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge...
Westy and Blake are back with another big update on The Trade Off! They're talking Rates, NFP Strategy, Yield Curves, the USD, EURUSD, EURAUD, China 50, SpotCrude, USDCAD and more - see you there!
Equities enjoyed a rally last week, as yields paused their ascent, and the dollar rolled over; a busy week awaits traders this week, with Fed Chair Powell heading to Capitol Hill, and the nonfarm payrolls report eyed.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Lit
We go through the data that traders need to be aware of - looking at what's expected and where the balance of risk sits.
We go through the charts that are front of mind - the key levels and where traders could look to take positions.
We hope this helps with your risk management and understanding of event risk, as well as the opportunity in front of us
Good...
Markets are in a strange state, waiting for things to happen. Westy and Blake have some big topics to cover so strap yourself in! We're talking yields, China, S&P500, Gold, Cable and much more.
Gold and silver have come up on the radar and both could be a tactical play as we eye a data storm brewing over the next two weeks.
One could argue that it was month-end flow, but the failure of the EUR and GER40 to be overly influenced by the above consensus French and Spanish CPI data suggests the market is becoming harder to shock by inflation reads. After the...
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss and deba
Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident.
However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed...
Westy and Blake are back to see what's going to inject some volatility into this market, with their sights firmly set on rates. Tune in for a look at the bigger macro story in equities and charts in forex, Bitcoin and more on The Trade Off
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
We saw gold consolidate in a bear flag, which is normally a bearish pattern. Market then broke below 1862, key support level on the H4 timeframe. We could see a continuation leg down to 1826.
USDCHF is negatively correlated to gold and we saw it consolidate in a falling channel which is normally a bullish pattern on the daily chart. We then saw the market reverse...
CADCHF has been consolidating in a ever tighter range - but after such an extended period off sideways chop, are we ready for a more impulsive, momentum driven move?
We look at the fundamental variables that could see higher volatility and how crude also plays a key role
For now, traders will play mean reversion - but when the market reveals itself be dynamic...
The RBNZ meeting could be also one to put on the radar – the market prices 44bp of hikes here, and NZD implied volatility is priced higher than other FX pairs. While inflation is rampant in NZ, the announcement of the state-wide emergency in response to Cyclone Gabrielle could see the RBNZ look to reduce the blow to households, such as we saw for the support to...
Looking at FX 1-week implied (options) volatility, we are guided by how the market sees the upcoming event risk impacting how far price can extend and subsequently our potential trading environment. It’s the percentile rank that jumps out here, as most FX pairs and gold are closer to the bottom end of their own 12-month range – in essence, the market is not...
Westy and Blake are back with a look at post CPI markets and are on the lookout for the next best trade - join them for a packed show on macro, charts and trade ideas!
We saw JPYX form a rounded top around 860, which is usually a reversal pattern after a sustained move to the upside.
This was then followed by a clean break of the trendline that held since late last year on the daily chart, as well as break of 831 support.
Could we see the break play out and JPYX extend lower to 811.
One for the radar!
We saw USDJPY slight reversal on last month's closure. On the H4 timeframe, we had seen the market trade lower in a falling channel, which is usually a reversal pattern once breached. We had seen a series of LLs and LHs then the market made a low around 127.30 before leaving a new HL, signaling a potential reversal.
Market then breached and closed outside the...
After some wild price action across markets post-CPI, things are settling down and calmer heads prevail. It was a wild day for the day traders, and an exercise in trading over news, with positioning, liquidity and flow all factors that saw market players react aggressively.
The US core CPI print was a touch above consensus at 5.6% YoY, but the market seemed to do...
