The Nasdaq 100 index rallied nearly 25% off the June lows to last week’s peak, but sellers have aggressively pushed prices down in recent days, leaving the index testing a key previous support/resistance zone around 12,900. This area put a floor under prices in March and April, and once the index broke below it, it acted as resistance in early June;...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is rallying today, helped along by a story that OPEC+ was considering cutting production if/when Iran’s production started to hit the market, reducing fears of continued oversupply in the coming months.
From a technical perspective, the selloff in WTI has stopped exactly where experienced technicians might have expected: At...
Risk aversion is the dominant theme to start this week’s trade, and for FX traders, that means broad-based strength in the US dollar.
Mirroring the situation in the European mainland, the UK economy is facing elevated inflation and a slowing (likely soon to be contracting) economy. In the coming months, the BOE is likely to prioritize raising interest rates to...
After trailing this summer’s recovery rally in the correlated Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin is now underperforming the tech-heavy index to the downside.
After testing its 50-day EMA last week, BTC/USD is currently trading down by 8% on the day to approach its 1-month low in the $20,750 area. More importantly, the cryptocurrency is set to break below the rising channel off...
After today's disappointing Chinese and US macro data and the slump in crude oil, bond yields have slumped as investors have further priced in "peak inflation" amid recession risks.
The US 10-year yield broke out of its bear channel a couple of sessions ago, which was bad news for low-yielding assets. But it has now gone back inside that channel, meaning the...
Bitcoin and other cryptos remain supported.
BTC formed an inverted doji/shooting star candle off resistance around $24,600 on Thursday, which looked rather bearish. However, we have not seen any significant downside follow-through, suggesting Thursday's price action was driven by profit-taking than intense short-selling.
Thus, I think BTC will go on to take out...
Gold had already created a post-NFP high at the start of this week, but with inflation data coming in much softer than the previous month, this has further fuelled a rally in low- and zero-yielding assets such as gold, nasdaq and yen.
Investors are betting that the Fed will slow down its rate hikes amid signs of slowing economic activity and the potential we have...
The S&P has turned negative on the week ahead of the release of US CPI on Wednesday.
While some profit-taking on the longs accumulated over the past few weeks should not come as surprise, there are plenty of macro concerns to encourage short sellers to step in after the recent recovery. Remember that we are no longer in a bull trend.
The failure to hold above...
Despite that strong US jobs report on Friday, we are seeing renewed weakness in the dollar and bond yields. With the Fed's next meeting still 1.5 months away, traders are easing on their long dollar positions as things could still change dramatically by mid-September. As a result, gold, silver, comdolls, pound, euro, bitcoin, ether, et. all., are breaking higher....
It looks like the U/J has paved the way for another move lower following the release of mixed US data this week, and slumping oil prices.
The hourly chart of the USD/JPY shows the breakdown of former support at 133.40ish, as well as a short-term trend line.
From here, a move down to the next support at 132.40ish looks very likely, and if that breaks then there...
Like most currencies, the British pound has struggled against the US dollar so far this year, with GBP/USD falling by nearly 2000 pips from its mid-January high to its mid-July low. Over the past couple of weeks however, bulls have managed to drive the pair 500 pips off its low to peek above the 50-day MA for the first time since February.
The current bullish...
After creating a nice 3-bar reversal pattern beneath old resistance at $1650, Ether went on to break that resistance level on Thursday of last week, before going into a consolidation phase.
Today, ETH/USD has drifted back to that $1650 level where it is likely to find support, in my view.
Cryptos and other zero- and low-yielding assets like gold, silver,...
The ongoing rally in bonds have been driving everything from FX to metals this week. As bond prices surged higher, their yields fell, boosting the appeal of low- and zero-yielding assets such as the Japanese yen, gold, silver and bitcoin.
Yields have been dropping since the middle of June and this week saw that trend accelerate after the first estimate of the...
Bitcoin has today broken its bearish trend line that was in place since March, triggering some technical buying above it.
Cryptos and other zero-yielding assets have stormed back after the unexpected drop in US GDP increased speculation that the Fed will have to slow down the pace of the hikes and potentially go in reverse in early 2023.
Powell indicated at the...
GBP/JPY, a pair with a well-earned reputation for volatility, has spent the last couple of months seeing every smaller swings. As the chart shows, the pair has been putting in lower highs and higher lows, forming a classic symmetrical triangle pattern, for the past nine weeks since failing to break above its April high.
Coincidentally or not, the pair’s...
The Cable has broken out of a falling wedge pattern despite all the political uncertainty in the UK and ahead of FOMC rate decision.
It is interesting to note that the buyers have evidently stepped in around that long-term 1.20 handle.
This is potentially a major development from a technical view point. But let's see if there's going to be acceptance above...
It seems like only yesterday when oil prices were surging on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and analysts were predicting that the commodity could rise to $200 in short order. Since those fearful days in March however, supply has incrementally come into the market and demand has slackened, due in no small part to the high prices themselves.
Looking at the chart of...
Gold managed to bounce sharply off its lows during the ECB press conference, presumably because investors are now convinced that the the central bank will try to supress rising bond yields in troubled Eurozone countries, thus re-starting/continuing with some form of QE just as it has started to hike rates.
It remains to be seen whether the gains for gold will...
