The Dow has raced ahead of the other US indices in this rebound and it has reached the 200-day moving average.
If this is still a bear trend, then we would expect the next leg of the down trend to start from around these levels.
Notice that the 200-day MA had capped the previous rallies earlier in the year.
Will history repeat itself?
July 5th was the last time that EUR/CHF traded at 1.0000. The pair traded lower in an orderly channel until the pair broke above it on August 29th near 0.9629. EUR/CHF then hugged the top trendline of the channel, while still moving lower, making a local low at 0.9409. Since then, the pair has been moving higher in a flag formation. On October 13th, EUR/CHF...
The S&P 500 has rallied along with other global indices in what is going to be the biggest week for earnings. We have a few central bank meetings to come too. But I just wanted to highlight something more technical in this report, which this - the failed breakout attempts.
If you look at what's been happening in this bear market, we are seeing continued failures...
The Nasdaq and other US indices might be a tad higher, but stocks are not out of the woods yet as yields continue to press higher with the US 10-year comfortably above 4% now.
At the time of writing, the Nasdaq was testing resistance around 11250, where it also met the 21-day exponential moving average. This average has capped the gains on most occasions...
This is a weekly chart of Gold.
During the first week of August 2020, XAU/USD made an all-time high of 2075.11. During the week of March 7th, 2022, XAU/USD came within a few dollars of reaching that peak again, forming a double top.
The target for a double top is the height between the 2 peaks of the top, added to the breakdown point. In this case, it is...
Here's an hourly chart of the Aussie.
The AUD/USD has struggled owing to the selling of metals, yuan and Chinese stocks.
What happens in China is important to Australia because of their close trade links. China buys much of Australia's exports of things such as iron ore and copper.
With concerns growing over China's economic health, demand for Australian...
The USD/CNH is definitely worth watching as the recession narrative comes back to the forefront of investors' minds.
The renewed weakness in the yuan has been mirrored in the price action of things like copper and China's stock market, which fell overnight despite US and European indices rallying.
Fears over global growth intensified after China decided to...
Today saw silver rally in excess of 3% on no major news, finding support along with other financial markets that had become under pressure.
Of course, it is not the first time in this bear trend that we have seen such sharp moves higher, only for the bulls to then surrender and bears to take charge and drive prices to new lows. This coulf happen again, as...
Another day, another downward move for assets that tend to move inversely with bond yields. Gold, silver, Nasdaq - you name it. US 10-year bond yields bounced back to climb north of 4% on Friday.
After everything bounced back in a short-covering rally in the aftermath of a hotter US CPI inflation report on Thursday, gold still closed the session lower. That was a...
After yesterday’s sell-off, European markets bounced back, lifting US futures with them, ahead of the publication of the US CPI report. The recovery is potentially due to short-covering, but it may also have something to do with UK bond yields coming off the boil a little. There’s some speculation that the Bank of England will be forced to extend its October 14...
The USD/CHF has drifted lower for the past couple of days but watch out for a USDJPY-style breakout. The price is currently testing key support at around 0.9885ish, which was previously resistance. Given the bullish price structure in the last few days/weeks, we think a bullish breakout above parity looks highly likely.
Attention turns to US data after even more...
Australia hiked rates by only 25bps last week (vs an expectation of 50bps) as it became one of the first developed central banks to slow the pace of tightening. As such, AUD/USD has been moving lower as the monetary policies of the Australia and the US diverged.
AUD,/USD has been moving lower in an orderly downward sloping channel. However, the RSI began to make...
The stronger NFP print gave rise to renewed dollar buying and this sent the USD/JPY to a new weekly high.
The USD/JPY has refused to down despite the Japanese government's buying of yen with its huge dollar reserves.
The country's foreign reserves fell by a record $54 billion in September.
This was in response to the sharp depreciation of the yen, which...
Despite the Fed dismissing speculation that it will ease off rate hikes, investors are continuing to keep gold bid above the pivotal level of $1700, after it managed to break above its long-term bearish trend line last week.
So far, it appears as though the bears are losing control of price action. The bulls have reclaimed a few important levels including last...
After dropping to our main target below the summer lows, the Nasdaq and many other global indices have staged a bit of a relief rally today.
I reckon today's recovery is driven by short-side profit-taking. As such, I wouldn't rule out the resumption of the selling around current levels of 11160ish (old support and resistance).
I would drop my short-term bearish...
Gold is likely to come under renewed pressure in my opinion, as it is now testing old long-term support around $1675 to $1680 area (also last year's low).
The Fed's hawkish tone hasn't changed, so there's no compelling reason why the dollar or US bond yields would fall significantly from here.
Yes, the BoE has restarted QE, but until Fed changes its stance, I...
In light of the BoE intervention today, we have seen bond yields plunge across the world as it has given rise to speculation that other central banks might intervene in a similar way.
As a result, low- and zero-yielding assets have all bounced back, including the Japanese yen (which was also bought by Japanese government intervening in the FX market last...
The recovery in the GBP/USD was starting to lose momentum at the time of writing, although it was not too far off the day's earlier highs. Are we going to see it fall more profoundly later on, and even see fresh lows in the cable? Or can the cable pull itself higher?
Price has come under a little bit of pressure around 1.0840 area, previously support. It tried to...
