The S&P 500 continues its relentless uptrend as we start the second half of the year, but it is notable that the 14-day RSI indicator is at its highest level since 2023. While not a sign of an imminent pullback in and of itself, it does suggest that the short-term risks are tilting to the downside ahead of Fed Chairman Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony and the...
Chinese iron ore port inventories are bloated and continue to increase, hitting more than two-year highs last week. When you throw seasonality into the mix, the build is occurring at a time when inventories should be drawing fast. It’s extremely rare, raising questions whether iron ore can hold above $100 when the largest source of steel demand globally – China’s...
BTC/USD extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since August.
BTC/USD Outlook
A double-top formation has taken shape as BTC/USD failed to defend the opening range for June, and a move below 30 in the RSI likely to be accompanied by a further decline in Bitcoin like the price action...
The GBP/USD has broken above its bearish trend line established since June 2021, indicating the potential for a significant upward move, possibly reaching the psychological level of 1.3000. But it could rise far beyond that level should this week's US CPI data disappoint expectations. If so, last July’s high of 1.3142, or even higher levels, should come into...
AUD/USD has been in congestion for the entirety of 2024 trade, and we can even span back to the 2023 open when DXY went into a range to notice a similar mean reverting quality here.
The past two weeks has seen the pair make a move outside of that digestion and bulls are nearing a key test at a resistance zone defined by two fibonacci retracements, plotted from...
In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell when he appears before lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week is questionable. With Fed rate cut expectations growing as US data continues to soften, the path of least resistance...
The AUD/USD is the one to watch in the event we see a negative dollar reaction to today's US jobs report, which is due for release shortly. A headline print of 191K is expected, but watch out for revisions to prior months' data too.
AUD/USD's recent performance points higher
The AUD/USD has been performing well due to strong Australian inflation and a...
USD/JPY has printed a bullish reversal pattern on the 4H timeframe, bouncing off uptrend support in the process. And with horrible Japanese household spending data showing spending slumped 1.8% in the year to May against expectations for an increase of 0.1%, the likelihood of the BOJ delivering further near-term monetary policy tightening looks to be dimming fast....
US economic exceptionalism has been hard to question in recent years, surprising to the upside relative not only to expectations but other developed nations. But that narrative now faces a major test. Data is undershooting more often than not, suggesting activity is not only slowing but potentially rolling over rapidly.
With US inflation data indicating the...
GBP/JPY extends the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week to register a fresh yearly high (206.17), with the recent advance in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought territory.
GBP/JPY Outlook
The move above 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in GBP/JPY like the price action from...
Gold and silver have shown positive movement over the week, keeping their long-term bullish trends intact, as characterised by higher highs and higher lows.
Gold hit a new all-time high in May and has since been consolidating, which has eased 'overbought' conditions in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts.
On shorter time frames, a...
Having broken downtrend resistance after logging another failure below the 200-day moving average, NZD/USD may enjoy some upside in the coming days as trading volumes thin out ahead of US Independence Day.
With Jerome Powell reigniting Fed rate cut hopes with dovish language on Tuesday, it’s difficult to see risk appetite faltering dramatically in the absence of...
USD/CHF clears the June high (0.9036) as it extends the advance from the start of the week.
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
Keep in mind, the recent advance in USD/CHF has kept the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory, and the oscillator may show the bullish momentum gathering pace as it climbs to its highest level since May.
A close above the 0.9030...
Gold has continued to consolidate within the June 7th trading range (the highlighted NFP outside-day reversal candle). . The focus into the start of June is on a breakout of 2286-2387 range for guidance.
Key support 2277/86
Initial resistance 2368 with 2387 key.
From a trading standpoint, while the broader outlook is still constructive, the threat for a...
The gold-silver ratio has reached a key area of resistance between 80.30 to 80. 55 area and has reacted. This comes on the back of a major breakdown below a multi-year bullish trend line back in early May. So far, the ratio has held resistance here, which suggests that silver might be able to outperform gold again. However, it could also mean that both precious...
Like Germany's DAX that we highlighted earlier today, the UK's FTSE 100 is also on the verge of a bearish break down after a strong start to 2024.
The UK index has formed a clear inverted cup-and-handle pattern over the last 10 weeks. Akin to the "head" and "right shoulder" of a head-and-shoulders pattern, this setup shows fading buying pressure and a potential...
Germany's DAX index has had a solid 2024 so far, but the shine may be coming off the bullish technicals as we head into the second half of the year.
After hitting a record high near 19K in May, the index has seen its gains stall out. Prices retreated to bullish trend line support in mid-June, and with bulls failing to drive a convincing bounce off that level, the...
Sellers had an open door to push a breakout over the past three weeks. But they were continually thwarted at the 1.0668 support level, which has led to a bounce to start this week.
Key resistance overhead at the 200-day moving average, that's the big spot for bulls to encounter if they want to turn this into anything more than a support stall.
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