The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a big selloff Wednesday as the Fed emphasized the downside risks in the labor market. Moving forward, the key level to watch will be the 4-month low near 103.65. If we see a soft jobs report, traders could increase bets on a more aggressive 50bps interest rate cut from the Fed, taking the greenback below its key support zone in the...
I think today's big reversal qualifies as a key reversal day on oil. The rally means WTI is forming a three-bar reversal pattern on its daily time frame. Prices have been supported by further sharper-than-expected drop in US oil stocks, suggesting US driving seasons is well and truly underway. A close above the shaded area on the chart in the next couple of days...
BOJ rates pricing is as hawkish as it’s been since before the GFC. At the same time, expectations for rate cuts from the Fed over the next 12 months are nearing levels seen in January.
For a FX pair with a rolling daily correlation of 0.95 over the past month with two-year yield spreads between the US and Japan, it suggests there is only limited scope for...
It’s always wise to revisit the basics of markets. The foundation of successful trading is built around continuous education, disciplined practice, and a willingness to learn. Here are 10 tips for all traders:
1. Education First: Educate yourself thoroughly in the market before you begin. Some of the smartest people on the planet trade daily, and before you go...
The New Zealand dollar is a binary bet on how investor risk appetite evolves this week. Having plunged over the past fortnight before bouncing off horizontal support, a setup is in place to look for a reversal. We just need risk assets to oblige.
To reinforce how influential risk assets have been on the Kiwi, its rolling daily correlation with Nasdaq futures...
USD/CHF appears to be reversing ahead of the March low (0.8730) as it extends the rebound from the monthly low (0.8777).
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF rallies for the second day following the failed attempt to close below the 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension) region, with a breach above the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci...
US stock indices have dropped after a positive open. But the path of least resistance remains to the upside ahead of key events this week including the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday and the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
The Dow Jones outperformed global indices with a 1.55% gain on Friday, positioning it well for the upcoming week. In contrast, the...
As of writing on Monday morning, traders are pricing in about a 60% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, leaving meaningful doubt on how the meeting will ultimately resolve.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains within its 2-week bearish channel, though it is bouncing back to previous-support-turned-resistance near 1.2850. For...
Germany's DAX index has spent the last six months or so coiling within an ever-tighter symmetrical triangle pattern centered at 18,500.
With other non-tech-focused indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and FTSE 100 breaking out of their own consolidation patterns, German investors will be hoping for a similar bullish break to record highs near 19K....
From dire to delightful in the space of two sessions – that’s was the rollercoaster ride UK FTSE 100 bulls had to endure late last week with futures taking out stops layered below 8152 before reversing hard on Friday, taking out the 50-day moving average and downtrend resistance dating back to the record highs set in May. Closing at the highest level since June...
Sometimes all that a trader needs is a single line in the sand.
And last week, just as in early-May, that was the case in USD/JPY. The same 151.95 level that marked the high in 2022 and 2023 has come in for support a second time so far in 2024 trade, and that was the level where the bleeding had stopped on Thursday.
Interestingly this also shows as RSI pushes...
The North American cross of the US and Canadian dollars has been on quite a run of late.
The pair has rallied for 11 of the last 12 days to test its April high near 1.3845 as of writing. Interestingly, the pair formed a potential double bottom pattern in the interim, hinting at the potential for a more extended rally from here if that resistance level gives...
GBP/USD surged higher through the first 3 weeks of July, gaining more than 400 pips across that period. Over the last week+ though, cable has been gradually edging lower, creating a potential "bullish flag" pattern.
As the name suggests, the more gradual selling pressure in the "flag" portion of the pattern is seen as less significant/predictive than the strong...
The FTSE is among a handful of major global indices signaling a rebound in the stock markets following this week's earlier selling pressure.
The UK benchmark index broke below a well-established support level around 8110 area on Thursday, before quickly recovering to rally into the close. The false breakdown marks a key reversal pattern and especially as the...
Fortune favours the brave. And after filling the gap created in June and bouncing off uptrend support dating back to when the Fed pivoted from rate cuts in November on Thursday, you get the sense it’s now or never for S&P 500 500 e-mini bulls. Either they’ll defend the level with the aim of testing the former highs or we’ll see a break lower. Until we see the...
Following the technology-led drop, the S&P 500 is now nearing potential support around 5390. This is where a bullish trend line going back to October comes into play. It will need to hold this trend line on a daily closing basis to keep the bulls lurking for fresh opportunities.
But if the selling continues, then the next possible support area to watch is the...
You don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last?
AUD/JPY has been among largest casualties, hammered lower by a combination of China pessimism, large declines on Wall Street and narrowing yield...
A two-day rebound in gold takes price into the first major resistance hurdle here at the May high-day close / April high at 2426/31 . Looking for possible price inflection off this mark with the immediate rally vulnerable while below.
Initial support back at the June high near 2387 backed by the 61.8% retracement of the June rally at 2366 - losses should be...
