Turn-around in USDJPY after the sizable sell-off continued through this week's open.
Been a lot of remarks about how much of the carry trade has unwound, with one major bank saying first 50% had been unwound, and then 75%.
Since FX is de-centralized, coming up with an accurate statistic here could be challenging as that level of data does not exist. The best...
Financial markets are significantly more stable today. Major indices have rebounded, with all posting gains, especially the Japanese Nikkei, thanks to reassuring remarks from the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan yesterday. This optimism has spread across global equity markets, Bitcoin, and metal prices. Furthermore, better-than-anticipated US jobless claims...
S&P 500 E-minis have absorbed plenty of selling over the past few sessions but are yet to take the lows struck on Monday. While that doesn’t mean they won’t, it looks like futures may be settling into a new sideways range between 5350 on the topside and 5154 on the downside. Granted, the latter is only a minor level that was breached in the peak of the market puke...
USD/CHF appears to be defending the January low (0.8401) as it extends the rebound from the monthly low (0.8433), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above 30 to indicate a buy signal.
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF snaps the recent series of lower highs and lows as it trades to a fresh weekly high (0.8662), with a breach above 0.8700 (61.8%...
Central banks captivate traders across the world because of their immense importance: they are the institutions responsible for managing a nation's monetary system. One change by a major central bank can send markets moving by directly impacting the cost to borrow and the value of money within a nation. Most recently, the Bank of Japan's decision to hike interest...
Though the EUR/USD is currently constrained, I believe we could see the euro and other major currencies strengthen against the dollar once equity markets stabilise, which they are trying to today. The greenback has lost its yield appeal due to weak economic indicators hinting at a potential recession in the US. Up until a couple of days ago, currencies with lower...
Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility.
It’s an amazing statement, signalling the BOJ can and will be bullied by markets to avoid doing what is right for the Japanese...
BTC/USD retraces the sharp decline from earlier this week to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory.
BTC/USD Outlook
BTC/USD fails to extend the recent series of lower highs and lows as it struggles to close below $53510 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with a breach above $57590 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) raising the scope for a move...
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged potential risks to the downside but overall, the policy statement suggests a greater concern with the possibility of inflation remaining elevated than with any shortfalls in economic activity. Cash rate futures currently indicate a roughly 90% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the meeting on December...
Germany's DAX index has broken down definitively from its 4-month symmetrical triangle pattern, hinting at a potential "measured move" decline toward the mid-16,000s next.
So far, the index has dropped sharply over the last 3 days to hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally off the November low near 17,250. A near-term bounce off this support level...
Gold has rallied back sharply after testing its 50-day MA near $2375 earlier today. The precious metal has yet to set a “lower low” since early June, keeping the near-term bullish momentum intact for now.
For this week, traders will be looking to see if XAU/USD can recover back to the $2450 level and ultimately break above the record high at $2485 to clear the...
Crude price have dropped into confluent support at the objective yearly open / 2024 low-day close (LDC) at 72.14/93- looking for a reaction here.
A break / daily close below would threaten another leg lower in price towards the December LDC at 69.81 and the 2023 LDC at 68.57 .
Initial resistance at the July LDC near 75.22 with medium-term bearish...
The NZD/USD has bounced strongly off its overnight lows, following a sharp drop below 0.5860 support where it had bounced in July. If it can post a daily close above its opening level, it will created a hammer-like candle on the daily to suggest a major has been formed. But let's wait for that confirmation and US ISM services PMI data before turning bullish on the...
Bitcoin is getting obliterated. But if risk appetite suddenly returns, it’s unlikely to stay that way. Having fallen into overbought territory on RSI (14) and with the price testing former resistance at $52956, i’m interested to see whether there’s any buyers lurking below. So, I’m going to see what happens around this level in the near-term.
If the price...
GBP/JPY approaches the June low (197.21) after closing below the 50-Day SMA (201.76) for the first time since January.
GBP/JPY Outlook
GBP/JPY falls to a fresh monthly low (197.78) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from the start of the week, with a breach below the June low (197.21) raising the scope for a move towards the 195.70 (61.8%...
We have seen a big drop in bond yields in the aftermath of the US jobs report which disappointed expectations. So, in theory gold should head higher and remain supported on the dips. But if stocks continue selling then forced liquidation of leveraged long trades could impact gold negatively. I think that's partly what happened after gold initially rallied earlier...
GBP/USD plunged nearly 1% today with the post-BoE plunge taking the pound back into yearly open support at 1.2731 - looking for a reaction here.
A weekly close below this threshold would threaten a test of the July open / 200DMA near 1.2640 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.2584 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
INtiial resistance now back at ...
AUD/JPY is the quintessential "carry trade" pair among the majors given Australia's clear link to global growth and Japan's persistent near-zero interest rates.
After a strong start to the year, the pair has dropped over -1100 pips (-10%) in just the last 3 weeks along, underscoring the risk with crowded carry trades. A near-term bounce is possible, but with the...
