We're nearing an important driver for the USD with tomorrow's release of US CPI and expectations are high, with markets looking for headline CPI to move down to 2.6% from a prior read of 2.9%. For Core CPI, the expectation is for the same 3.2% that printed last month and that's where there could be scope for some additional USD-weakness should the data print below...
There's been a clear change-of-pace in trend for AUD/JPY over the past two months, but much of the carry trade that had built in the prior three-plus years remains in-play. As a matter of fact, the 23.6% retracement of that move is a big level with a bit of confluence as taken from the 38.2% retracement of the more recent sell-off.
This sets up for a big test...
EUR/USD sellers have stalled ahead of a re-test of the 1.1000 level, which notably hasn't been tested as support since the breakout last month.
The next week will be particularly interesting as tomorrow's US CPI report leads into Thursday's ECB, and then the week after brings the Fed with their first expected rate cut of this cycle.
The 1.1000 level is...
While the US Dollar has technically set a fresh yearly low, sellers were unable to get much run below the Dec 2023 swing low of 100.62. That price has since stalled the sell-off with support holding the line for the past few weeks. Given the upcoming CPI report and the FOMC rate decision next week, this could change, of course, but at this stage there's also an...
ASX 200 SPI futures and bullish moves above 8000 haven’t mixed well in 2024, resulting in a raft of failed breaks, long topside wicks and topping patterns. It’s akin to a “death zone” for bulls, starving rallies of oxygen before eventually reversing.
I’m not outright bearish just because we’re back above the level, especially when momentum indicators are...
USD/MXN may threaten the opening range for September as it struggles to test the August high (20.2271).
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
USD/MXN continues to pull back from the monthly high (20.1496) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, with a break/close below the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the...
USD/CAD has drifted lower today, suggesting that investors are not too alarmed by the jobless rate rising to a 7 year high of 6.6% as we found out on Friday. Last week saw the BoC cut rates for the third time in as many meetings. Investors are expecting a couple of more cuts before the year is out, particular if the jobs data shows further weakness. However, this...
Looking at the chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the world’s reserve currency remains in a well-defined downtrend despite last week’s bounce. The near-term reaction in the US dollar will likely follow the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Fed (bullish) vs. 50bps rate cut (bearish) as outlined in the chart above, but ultimately, the dominant downtrend and...
The US dollar continues to fall across the board, especially against haven currencies like the Japanese yen. But it is also weaker against the more high beta currencies too, despite the ongoing struggles in the stock markets. The NZD/USD stands ready to benefit from the weakening US dollar, especially in the event we see calm return to stocks.
The NZD/USD has...
The Fed has made it clear that a further weakening in US labour market would be unwelcome, especially if it leads to a sharp increase in unemployment. With leading indicators continuing to deteriorate, and given the Fed thinks policy is already very restrictive, the risk of the FOMC kicking off its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut looks underpriced. It could...
EUR/USD is setting the monthly opening-range just above yearly-open support at 1.1038 . Looking for possible inflection off this mark.
A break below the median-line would threaten a larger bull-market correction towards the January high-day close (HDC) / 38.2% retracement at 1.0942/72 - losses would need to be limited to this threshold for the April rally to...
The price of oil clears the June low (69.42) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The selloff in the price of oil may persist as it trades to a fresh weekly low ($68.95), with a break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the February low ($66.60).
Next area of interest comes in around...
Gold has been in consolidation mode in the last few sessions ahead of key US data. But the slow and steady climb is exactly what the bulls want to see, reinforcing a bullish outlook for gold. Shallow pullbacks, coupled with higher highs and higher lows, are the hallmarks of a strong upward trend.
Right now, the trend remains firmly bullish and will likely stay...
Inflation has become one of the most important topics in modern economics because of its recent prominence, affecting forex pairs, commodities, as well as everyday goods and services. In this post, our team will provide educational clarity on inflation, what it means, and the important definitions to understand whether you're new to markets or a savvy pro who...
The USD/CAD pair faces a potentially volatile week due to major economic data releases from the US and Canada. Key events include:
1. US Data Releases: Critical reports like the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s August jobs report will influence the U.S. dollar. A strong jobs report could stabilize the dollar, while weaker data may lead...
Kiwi is looking toppy after printing a shooting star last Thursday, following the bearish reversal through .62764 with two back-to-back declines before easing lower again today. With RSI (14) breaking its uptrend, bullish momentum is waning. While not confirmed by MACD, the Kiwi looks heavy on the charts. Much will be determined by the price action around .6218, a...
Sitting in the middle of its recent range at the beginning of a week laden with risk events, 146.50 looms as a potential level USD/JPY traders can build setups around. With price and momentum breaking their respective downtrends last week, and with no meaningful sign of further deterioration in the US labour market based on recent jobless claims data, buying dips...
Media reports suggest Chinese authorities are considering allowing homeowners to refinance up to $5.4 trillion in mortgages at significantly lower interest rates, providing the type of circuit-breaker that could boost consumption and reverse the downturn in the property sector. While it’s not the first time we’ve seen speculation over measures to boost flagging...
