EUR/USD fell below parity once again today CAPITALCOM:EURUSD , but this time the reason is more complex than a divergence in Fed-ECB interest rate policy.
Recent price differences for natural gas between Europe and the US have become a key factor for the euro's decline, even more than 2-year Germany-US yield differentials.
As Dutch TTF prices reached new...
After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows.
However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this...
Europe's wholesale natural gas price (Dutch Title Transfer Facility TTF ) rose to levels not seen since the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bolstered by a mixture of continuing supply disruptions from Russia and soaring demand for power generation in the midst of persistent heatwaves across Europe.
Gazprom ( GAZP ) announced that European gas prices...
USD/CHF fundamental analysis
Switzerland's annual rate of inflation was 3.4% in July 2022, the same as in June. It was the highest inflation rate since October 1993, but it fell short of market expectations of a 3.5% increase. As a result, inflation remains well above the Swiss National Bank's 2% target, necessitating a steady pace of interest-rate...
There have been some interesting technical developments in the NZD/USD daily chart recently. The price action this week effectively broke above the 50-day moving average’s dynamic resistance at 0.627, with the Kiwi dollar extending to 0.645. The NZD/USD pair hasn’t traded above 50-dma since early April.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet next...
Newmont ( NEM ) stock prices have been falling precipitously, halving in value from highs of $86 in mid-April, due to lower gold prices and rising input costs weighing on the company's earnings.
On July 25, following the release of the disappointing second-quarter results, with EPS down to 0.46 (-30% lower than expected), the world's largest gold miner fell to...
Gold has risen 5.5% from its July 21 low of $1,680 per troy ounce, as market sentiment suddenly shifted to safe-haven assets in the aftermath of a slew of recession-risk events and rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan.
According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT)...
EUR/GBP fundamental analysis
The Bank of England (BoE) raised its Bank rate by half a percentage point to 1.75 percent at its August meeting, the highest rate hike in 27 years, owing to elevated inflationary pressures exacerbated by Europe's recent gas crisis.
However, the pound did not surge following the rate announcement since the Bank of England's policy...
USD/CAD fundamental analysis
A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid...
Silver has risen by 11% in the last two weeks. This performance comes after losing about 30% since March 8, indicating a so-called bear-market rally.
The main macro driver behind the silver price recovery has been a sharp drop in US bond yields, with the 1 0-year yield falling to 3-month lows at 2.6%, its lowest level since April, as the market...
The yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow.
The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy,...
GBP/USD update
The cable (GBP/USD) rose to 1.226, smashing the 50-day moving average for the first time since early February 2022, as speculators increased their expectations for a 50 basis point BoE rate hike this week, which would be the largest interest rate increase in 27 years, pushing borrowing costs to 1.75%, the highest level since 2009.
With UK...
The Japanese yen rose to 133 against the dollar ( USD/JPY ), recovering from its 24-year lows.
Short-term tailwinds are supporting the yen as the market has repriced Fed interest rate risks to the downside and has already priced in a rate cut in the first half of 2023. The yen is currently doing well in its traditional role as a recession hedge, with the US...
Gold prices reacted positively to the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates by a full percentage point in July.
First and foremost, the reduction in expectations of future rate hikes due to concerns about a recession in early 2023 drove gold above $1,740 per troy ounce. The expectations of lower rates in 2023 also weakened the US dollar, as...
Following the Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a back-to-back 75-basis-point rate hike to 2.25-2.5% ( USINTR ), S&P 500 index broke above 4,000 points, marking a 2.6% daily gain, as market expectations pointed to a halt in rate hikes at the end of the year, and a rate cut in the first half of next year.
A window for a "bear market rally" in the S&P 500...
USD/HUF technical analysis
The worst-performing currency today is the Hungarian forint, down by more than 1% on the day against the USD ( USD/HUF ), as Russian gas disruptions fuelled selling pressures on Central Eastern European currencies.
The latest candlesticks analysis provides a strong bullish signal generated by the three white soldiers pattern. This...
The price of natural gas has been going up and down like a roller coaster over the past month.
After suffering a severe 45% drop between June 8 and early July, US Henry Hub prices have risen nearly 80% since July 7, recouping all the losses.
What's going on in the natural gas market?
Russia is squeezing gas supplies to Europe via the NordStream (NS1)...
The Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%.
To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which...
