Markets next move awaits Fed speeches this week
In April, the US economy saw a modest increase of 175,000 jobs, marking its slowest growth in six months, notably below market projections of 243,000 and a considerable drop from the robust 315,000 jobs added in March.
So, now we know the NFP data from last Friday, has this changed investors' outlook for fed...
Coming up: BOE's rate decision week
Morgan Stanley has asserted that the Bank of England might still opt for an interest rate cut in the coming week, a stance that stands out amidst dwindling market confidence in such a move. Morgan Stanley’s opinion diverges notably from the consensus, which suggests an initial rate cut by the BOE in September.
Backing Morgan...
Fed rules out rate hike. Will the RBA now do the same?
The US Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range as anticipated. Notably, Fed Chair Powell, in the press conference, expressed that while the central bank remains vigilant about inflation risks, a hike is "unlikely" for the next move.
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)...
On Monday, the yen dropped to 160.000 per dollar, marking its lowest level since 1990, before rebounding more than 3% to 154.5 per dollar. This rebound was suspected to be the result of intervention by Japanese authorities.
According to reports from Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely injected ¥5.5 trillion into the currency markets after discrepancies...
Why has the US dollar sunk in the lead up to the FOMC decision?
Bloomberg Economics says “We expect Powell to make a hawkish pivot” regarding the FOMC’s decision this Wednesday. Expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024.
So, why is the US dollar underperforming to start this week? And does this open up an even more attractive entry...
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160?
The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday.
With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a...
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024?
Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC.
Nonetheless,...
Gold managed to recover its losses yesterday (biggest daily slump in almost 2 years) on weak US PMI data. The thought here is that sluggish growth indicators might push the Federal Reserve towards an earlier interest rate cut (although don't hold your breath), potentially increasing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold.
The rate of expansion in...
In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday.
Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's...
Australia's Inflation Data Revealed Soon
Next week, Australia will unveil its latest inflation figures.
Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance and seize trading opportunities.
Projections suggest a notable dip in Australia's headline...
Gold hovers around the $2,370, with trading range relatively narrow as investors closely monitor updates on the Iran-Israel conflict.
Israel's stance on retaliating against Iran revolves not around whether but when and how to strike back. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's Finance Minister, advocates for a response that would impose a "disproportionate toll" on Iran,...
Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data?
Japanese inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, but its impact on the market might be subdued. Investors could prefer to pay attention to next week's quarterly growth and price forecasts from the Bank of Japan, which could be the real market movers.
According to sources cited by Reuters, the...
Financial markets are bracing for the uncertainty surrounding Iran's recent strike on Israel and the potential for retaliatory measures.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, remarked that the current situation may lead to elevated gold and oil prices, alongside lower US Treasury yields and stocks compared to what would have been expected...
As we step into the second week of the Q1 earnings season, a roster of major financial players is gearing up to unveil their financial reports.
Expect updates from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Blackstone, and Charles Schwab.
Additionally, non-financial companies like UnitedHealth, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing,...
The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June.
EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages.
Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal....
The end of the week brings a host of significant data releases, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the FOMC minutes from the March meeting, and interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox (link...
NZD/USD: Odds for NZ rate cut?
This week the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged at 5.5% Interestingly, as recently as February this year, the RBNZ was still deliberating rate hikes.
Presently, the market attributes a 4% probability to a rate cut. The earliest feasible moment for a rate cut could be in November....
Must-know events for the trading week
The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data.
Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari...
