The commodity block currencies have been hit hard of late and are once again extending declines to multi-month lows against the US dollar. We're seeing clear divergence in monetary policy outlooks with deteriorating economic data in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada weighing on the respective currencies, while the added risk of trade wars only makes things that...
UBS forecasts gold prices to reach $2,900/oz by the end of 2025, driven by central bank demand, increased investor interest, and a lower interest rate environment. UBS projects central bank purchases of 900 metric tons or more in 2025 as part of ongoing reserve diversification efforts.
From a technical perspective, the 100 and 200 weekly Simple Moving Averages...
As we come into the North American open, the US dollar remains in the driver's seat and is up pretty much across the board. Dollar demand is also found company in US equity futures, pointing to a lower open. But overall, with stocks trading just off record highs, the setbacks aren't anything to write home about.
Euro weakness can be attributed to the lowest...
Since the beginning of 2024, cocoa futures have more than doubled in price and are currently climbing for the seventh week in a row, hitting record levels. The mix of limited supply, high demand, and uncertain weather is keeping the cocoa market unpredictable. Analysts at ING expect prices to stay volatile through next year.
Coffee has also seen a big price jump...
Solid preliminary PMI data out of the Euro area helped to keep the Euro supported into dips, though overall we haven't seen much activity in markets so far on Monday. ECB President Lagarde commented that domestic inflation remains too high, but price momentum in the services sector has dropped steeply recently. Euro gains from the economic data were also offset by...
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is now under a caretaker government.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the Bundestag on Monday, paving the way for a snap election in February.
Key issues in the upcoming campaign are expected to include the war in Ukraine, the financial demands of strengthening Germany’s military, a struggling economy,...
New Zealand's economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2024, setting the stage for a technical recession as Q3 GDP is expected to decline further by another 0.2%. New Zealand has recorded the steepest per capita GDP decline among Anglosphere nations over the past year.
Across the Tasman, Australia is also teetering on the edge of...
US CPI came in as expected on Wednesday, which has kept markets mostly confined to tighter consolidation. The data confirms expectations for another rate cut from the Fed next week. However, it also introduces the possibility that the Fed might be less accommodative in 2025.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar has been benefiting from a strong wave of demand after...
The EUR/USD is trading near a fresh monthly low around 1.0480. The European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut earlier in the day and downgraded its growth outlook, signaling weaker-than-anticipated economic performance.
Policymakers hinted at additional easing, with a 25-basis-point cut projected for each of the next two meetings....
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is holding its final board meeting of the year to decide on the cash rate.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Those anticipating a rate cut from the RBA might have to wait until next year...
The two biggest movers in the FX market on Wednesday have been the Yen and the Australian Dollar, both of which have come under significant pressure.
The Yen has been sold on reduced odds of a BoJ rate hike this month, following a local news article suggesting the central bank would likely prefer to wait and carefully assess developments in the U.S. economy and...
The euro remains under strain as French PM Michel Barnier faced a no-confidence vote over a divisive budget plan of tax hikes and spending cuts. The vote closed at 8:20 p.m. local time.
President Macron is expected to swiftly appoint a caretaker PM if Barnier’s government collapses, ahead of July elections.
Barnier warned that France’s debt burden—€60bn in...
Asia is where the drama in currency currently resides.
The Japanese yen found support today following South Korea's decision to declare martial law, prompting a flight to safety across markets. The South Korean won tumbled to ₩1,444 at one point, its lowest since October 2022 (now trades at ₩1,416).
Over the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled...
When considering trends, it's important to understand that markets tend to move in measured steps.
Looking at the Bitcoin chart, the $69,000 high reached in 2021, followed by the low in 2022, represented a move of $53,540.
Now that Bitcoin has broken out to a new record high in 2024, we project a measured move extension of the same size—$53,540—which points to...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be a key event this week.
Three weeks ago, Powell was grilled about the economic implications of former President Trump's potential return to office, following the Fed's interest rate decision. A continuation of these discussions is expected on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic...
President-elect Donald Trump issued a sharp warning to BRICS nations over the weekend, urging them to "find another sucker" and threatening 100% tariffs on any efforts to create an alternative currency that challenges the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been a prominent advocate for reducing...
The Australian Dollar found support following comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, where she reiterated that inflation remains too high to consider interest rate cuts in the near term.
Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6500. However, the daily chart shows a lower high and lower low, indicating potential for further...
We're seeing more "sell the fact" action on the Trump trade and hearing a lot of talk about month-end dollar outflows.
This seems to be factoring into price action today, with the dollar down across the board.
Dollar weakness has been especially prominent against the yen, where speculation of a December BOJ rate hike is ramping up. The euro has also gained...
